Forecast: Austin Real estate boom to continue in 2007

From today’s Austin Business Journal email newsletter. The report doesn’t contain info about residential sales and is focued on the commercial side. But as commercial goes so does residential. The new jobs filling the commercial space are the same people moving into Austin and buying homes.

Source: Austin Business Journal
With rents and occupancy rising across different product types and economic indicators pointing toward further population and job growth in Austin, local commercial real estate professionals say the industry’s high times are likely to continue into next year.

The Institute of Real Estate Management sponsored its annual forecasting forum today at the Hyatt Regency on Town Lake. A panel of experts from different sectors offered their assessment of the market and their predictions for 2007.

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California Home Prices Decline in 8 Counties

Why do we care about California Home prices in Texas? A large number of Austin area buyers, especially investors, are from California. Many of these buyers have either cashed out of homes in California and moved to Austin, or they have used equity in California real estate to finance investments in Austin.

This is not to say Austin relies on California buyers to keep our real estate market moving, but there is no doubt that California buyers/investors have affected our market and contributed to the upward swing in prices, especially over the past year. As California slows down, and people start feeling nervous about real estate, that should stem the flow of California Buyers and Investors at least somewhat.

Story is below

Eight counties in California experienced year-over-year home price declines in September, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

Six of the eight counties are in the San Francisco Bay area. Prices in Sonoma County fell the most, at 7.7 percent.

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Despite Warnings, Consumers Opt for Riskier Loans

Source: The Washington Post, (10/24/06) Borrowers continue to choose risky nontraditional mortgages, even after state and federal regulators have issued widespread warnings about the unstable and rapidly rising payments associated with this kind of financing. About 26 percent of mortgage loan originations by dollar volume in the first six months of 2006 were interest-only loans, … Read more

Austin Real Estate Market Update – September 2006 Sales

Below are the sales stats for September in Austin, houses only (no condos or townhomes).

The average sales price across all MLS areas in Austin is up 5.89% over September of 2005.

The most important factors in Austin’s real estate market at this time are shrinking inventory and continued strong demand. Overall, Austin has less than a 4 month supply of homes, which is a Seller’s Market. Equalibrium is about 6 months inventory. Of course there are submarkets and neighborhoods in and around Austin that are doing better or worse than the overall average, but we are chugging along at a healthy pace here.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update - September 2006
Previous Month and Year Comparison
All Central Texas MLS Areas - Houses Only

 
August 2006
September 2006
September 2005
Yr % Change
# Sold
2529
2150
2198
-2%
Avg List Price
$256,508
$238,143
$226,174
+5.3%
Median List Price
$189,000
$174,900
$169,000
+3%
Avg Sold Price
$249,472
$232,128
$219,212
+5.89%
Med Sold Price
$185,000
$169,802
$164,750
+3.1%
Avg Size SQFT
2144
2069
2082
-0.6%
Median SQFT
1948
1866
1887
-1%
Avg $ per SQFT
$116
$112
$105
+6.67%
Avg Days on Mkt
60
57
66
-13%
Median Days on Mkt
36
37
46
-20%

Below is the breakout by Austin MLS Area.

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