Comments on: Report: Austin Home sales dip 10 percent http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/ Austin Real Estate Blog Fri, 19 Mar 2010 19:01:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Scott http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/comment-page-1/#comment-945 Scott Sat, 29 Sep 2007 13:28:48 +0000 http://ben.crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/#comment-945 Hey, since when is a "normal" market a down market? What I'm inferring, is that we are just getting back to a normal state of RE affairs, when people buy simply to have a place of their own, or upgrade per space considerations, or downsize for the same. I don't EVER recall investors being involved on any level most of my years in resale and new single family RE, with the exception of California in the 80's. I also recall it being the norm to put down 10-20%. From what I understand, this recent loan tightening won't come anywhere near going back to that. This is simply a reintroduction of normality into a sector that got temporarily out of touch with the fundamentals. As I said, a correction, not a catharsis. BTW, normal is infinitely more sustainable in the long run, so thats great news for the future of RE, after the long overdue correction....... Hey, since when is a “normal” market a down market? What I’m inferring, is that we are just getting back to a normal
state of RE affairs, when people buy simply to have a place of their own, or upgrade per space considerations, or downsize for the same. I don’t EVER recall investors being involved on any level most of my years in resale and new single family
RE, with the exception of California in the 80’s. I also recall it being the norm to put down 10-20%. From what I understand, this recent loan tightening won’t come anywhere near going back to that. This is simply a reintroduction
of normality into a sector that got temporarily out of touch with the fundamentals. As I said, a correction, not a catharsis.
BTW, normal is infinitely more sustainable in the long run, so thats great news for the future of RE, after the long overdue
correction…….

]]> By: heyzeus http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/comment-page-1/#comment-950 heyzeus Thu, 27 Sep 2007 20:40:54 +0000 http://ben.crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/#comment-950 If there can be one good thing to come from this loan situation it is this: There will be less construction of the abominable, sprawling, environmentally degrading type of developments out in Hutto/Kyle/Leander. For now, at least. If there can be one good thing to come from this loan situation it is this: There will be less construction of the abominable, sprawling, environmentally degrading type of developments out in Hutto/Kyle/Leander. For now, at least.

]]> By: dave http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/comment-page-1/#comment-952 dave Thu, 27 Sep 2007 18:07:44 +0000 http://ben.crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/#comment-952 I think this is just a correction. It isn't cataclysmic. The sky won't fall down.....and the BEST thing is that quite a few folks who jumped on the RE bandwagon(investors and RE-related occupations) will be pushed out of the game. I think our US economy(including Austin, which, last I heard, was in the US), relies far too much on RE for employment and as an economic driver for subsidiary effects like home-equity loans. My only concern is that washed-out loan officers and RE agents have a viable alternative in this economy, in which RE poses one of the few occupations one without either a viable degree or decent prospects can use to make a good living. I pray that Wal-mart and Taco Bell aren't the only alternatives for the 4,000 overhang of agents in the Austin area(out of appox. 11,000). I think this is just a correction. It isn’t cataclysmic. The sky won’t fall down…..and the BEST thing is that quite a few
folks who jumped on the RE bandwagon(investors and RE-related occupations) will be pushed out of the game.
I think our US economy(including Austin, which, last I heard, was in the US), relies far too much on RE for employment
and as an economic driver for subsidiary effects like home-equity loans. My only concern is that washed-out loan officers
and RE agents have a viable alternative in this economy, in which RE poses one of the few occupations one without
either a viable degree or decent prospects can use to make a good living. I pray that Wal-mart and Taco Bell aren’t
the only alternatives for the 4,000 overhang of agents in the Austin area(out of appox. 11,000).

]]> By: Steve Crossland http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/comment-page-1/#comment-949 Steve Crossland Thu, 27 Sep 2007 16:05:56 +0000 http://ben.crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/#comment-949 > Can you post page 11 of the full stat package from ABoR. I tried to put it in this comment section, but wasn’t able to post it. Here you go: http://crosslandteam.com/abor-page11.pdf The gap between rise/fall is interesting. Just about everything below $170K is down year-to-date, and just about everything above $170K is up in the number of sales year to date. The small 1-digit drops in the $130K to $170K range don't bother me. A lot of that is just the breather we expected after a huge 2006. Also, as the homes that sold for $130K to $150K last year are homes that sell for $140K to $170K this year, the bottom range is dropping because builders have stopped building the cheaper homes and unqualified borrowers can't get the loans anymore. What is really interesting to me is the strong uptick in number of sales in the $400K to $600K range. Year to date, as shown on the pdf linked above, sales for homes $400K to $500 are up 16% this year, and homes priced $500K to $600K are up 23% this year. $600K to $700K is up 16% also in the number of sales. Steve > Can you post page 11 of the full stat package from ABoR. I tried to put it in this comment section, but wasn’t able to post it.

Here you go:
http://crosslandteam.com/abor-page11.pdf

The gap between rise/fall is interesting. Just about everything below $170K is down year-to-date, and just about everything above $170K is up in the number of sales year to date. The small 1-digit drops in the $130K to $170K range don’t bother me. A lot of that is just the breather we expected after a huge 2006. Also, as the homes that sold for $130K to $150K last year are homes that sell for $140K to $170K this year, the bottom range is dropping because builders have stopped building the cheaper homes and unqualified borrowers can’t get the loans anymore.

What is really interesting to me is the strong uptick in number of sales in the $400K to $600K range. Year to date, as shown on the pdf linked above, sales for homes $400K to $500 are up 16% this year, and homes priced $500K to $600K are up 23% this year. $600K to $700K is up 16% also in the number of sales.
Steve

]]> By: Ryan Brown http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/comment-page-1/#comment-947 Ryan Brown Thu, 27 Sep 2007 02:44:46 +0000 http://ben.crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/#comment-947 The sales differences across price ranges is an interesting footnote to the 10% decline. The latest Multifamily data was also indicative of the decline in investors. While prices keep rising (up 19%) the number of sales has dropped significantly, down 47% vs. August 2006. Another good article on the importance (and opportunity for differentiation) of listing agents in non-stellar markets: <a href="http://www.bloodhoundrealty.com/BloodhoundBlog/?p=1849" rel="nofollow">Greg Swan (Bloodhoung Blog) - A buyer’s market? You bet, but even more than that, it’s a listing agent’s market</a> The sales differences across price ranges is an interesting footnote to the 10% decline. The latest Multifamily data was also indicative of the decline in investors. While prices keep rising (up 19%) the number of sales has dropped significantly, down 47% vs. August 2006.

Another good article on the importance (and opportunity for differentiation) of listing agents in non-stellar markets:

Greg Swan (Bloodhoung Blog) – A buyer’s market? You bet, but even more than that, it’s a listing agent’s market

]]> By: Austin Real Estate Market News - Homes Sales Dip 10 Percent | InspiredAustin.com http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/comment-page-1/#comment-948 Austin Real Estate Market News - Homes Sales Dip 10 Percent | InspiredAustin.com Thu, 27 Sep 2007 02:41:41 +0000 http://ben.crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/#comment-948 [...] check out another Austin Real Estate blog I frequent: Steve Crossland - Report: Austin Home sales dip 10 percent. Steve is a fellow Realtor who has a great writing style and good insights into the [...] [...] check out another Austin Real Estate blog I frequent: Steve Crossland – Report: Austin Home sales dip 10 percent. Steve is a fellow Realtor who has a great writing style and good insights into the [...]

]]> By: Kevin http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/comment-page-1/#comment-951 Kevin Wed, 26 Sep 2007 17:18:25 +0000 http://ben.crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/#comment-951 Steve, Can you post page 11 of the full stat package from ABoR. I tried to put it in this comment section, but wasn't able to post it. It shows a separation of the market by price class. $130K and under seeing a major slowdown compared to last year. $170-400K actually UP in sales from last year, and $400-700K WAY up. Page 14 of the stats would shed some light on what areas are doing specifically too. Thanks! Kevin Steve,

Can you post page 11 of the full stat package from ABoR. I tried to put it in this comment section, but wasn’t able to post it. It shows a separation of the market by price class. $130K and under seeing a major slowdown compared to last year. $170-400K actually UP in sales from last year, and $400-700K WAY up.

Page 14 of the stats would shed some light on what areas are doing specifically too.

Thanks!

Kevin

]]> By: Observer http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/comment-page-1/#comment-953 Observer Wed, 26 Sep 2007 15:01:28 +0000 http://ben.crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/#comment-953 > The rising prices is what I consider a hot market, not the number of sales. Well, if inventory goes up and the number of sales goes down than what direction will the prices go ;-) ? Also, don't forget that house prices are sticky compare to stock market Martin, foreclosures are going up in the outskirts, as well as number of bankruptcies. You can check it on www.foreclosure.com > The rising prices is what I consider a hot market, not the number of sales.

Well, if inventory goes up and the number of sales goes down than what direction will the prices go ;-) ?
Also, don’t forget that house prices are sticky compare to stock market

Martin, foreclosures are going up in the outskirts, as well as number of bankruptcies. You can check it on http://www.foreclosure.com

]]> By: Martin http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/comment-page-1/#comment-946 Martin Tue, 25 Sep 2007 21:50:31 +0000 http://ben.crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/#comment-946 Does the fact the pendings were down by 25%, and listings up by 21% put a scare into anyone? inventory to pendings went from 2.8 months to 4.5 months. If price increases have already slowed to 6%, will it slow by more, or are you saying it will be constant? I'm looking to buy in the outskirts(Round Rock), and in the past few weeks I've seen a lot of price reduced signs, and a few large reductions on some foreclosures. Do you think I should buy soon, or hold out until next year? Do you know foreclosures(or notices) are going up or down in the outskirts? Does the fact the pendings were down by 25%, and listings up by 21% put a scare into anyone? inventory to pendings went from 2.8 months to 4.5 months. If price increases have already slowed to 6%, will it slow by more, or are you saying it will be constant? I’m looking to buy in the outskirts(Round Rock), and in the past few weeks I’ve seen a lot of price reduced signs, and a few large reductions on some foreclosures. Do you think I should buy soon, or hold out until next year? Do you know foreclosures(or notices) are going up or down in the outskirts?

]]> By: Steve Crossland http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/comment-page-1/#comment-944 Steve Crossland Tue, 25 Sep 2007 14:07:35 +0000 http://ben.crosslandteam.com/blog/2007/09/24/report-austin-home-sales-dip-10-percent/#comment-944 > The rising prices is what I consider a hot market, not the number of sales. That's the view I've always held. When it's time to sell, a seller cares only about the price her home will bring in the market, not how many homes are selling. Now, the level of inventory and number of homes against which a seller is competing will help determine the selling price, but if that selling price is still a solid number, higher than a year before, the seller will be happy. Likewise, as a buyer, it matters not that you have a lot to pick from if it's all priced above your range. Again, excess inventory should make the price more negotiable, but I don't see that happening in the close-in Austin areas. In the outskirts, yes, there are homes sitting. I don't doubt we are in a shifting market. The question is, when or if it will affect sellers. I certainly don't think a qualified buyer should sit around hoping prices fall between now and next summer. If anything, the 10% appreciation we've been seeing will slow to 5%. Steve > The rising prices is what I consider a hot market, not the number of sales.

That’s the view I’ve always held. When it’s time to sell, a seller cares only about the price her home will bring in the market, not how many homes are selling. Now, the level of inventory and number of homes against which a seller is competing will help determine the selling price, but if that selling price is still a solid number, higher than a year before, the seller will be happy.

Likewise, as a buyer, it matters not that you have a lot to pick from if it’s all priced above your range. Again, excess inventory should make the price more negotiable, but I don’t see that happening in the close-in Austin areas. In the outskirts, yes, there are homes sitting.

I don’t doubt we are in a shifting market. The question is, when or if it will affect sellers. I certainly don’t think a qualified buyer should sit around hoping prices fall between now and next summer. If anything, the 10% appreciation we’ve been seeing will slow to 5%.

Steve

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