Month: September 2007

The number of single family residential homes sales in Austin took a 16% dip for August. While number of sales alone does not tell the entire story of a real estate market, a 16% dip is an eyebrow raising number, as is the 28% increase in homes for sale compared to the same time last year. The Austin real estate market has shifted.

The interesting thing is that if we ignore the supply and demand data noted above, Austin’s real estate market is chugging along just fine. Our average sold price of $264,673 is up in August 7.4% from a year ago. The median sales price of $195,000 represents a 5.4% increase over last year. The average price per square foot is up 6.1% over a year ago to $122. The average days on market are down 5% from last year to 57 days, and the median days on market are down 2.8% to 35 days.

Numbers like these are the envy of almost any other real estate market, anywhere else in the U.S.

So, how can a market with falling demand and rising supply generate good sales market stats? The supply/demand equation may be a sign of things to come more than an indication of present conditions. The consensus among agent I talk to is that we may be on the cusp of a “breather” in the Austin real estate market, or something worse. Gary Keller thinks it may be something worse, as he came and told us so earlier this week during an all-day meeting with Austin’s top 100 Keller Williams agents. He attributes the pending slowdown to flattening consumer confidence, among other things.

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For July 2007, the number of real estate sales of single family homes in Austin decreased 5.3% compared to July 2006. Most of 2007 has lagged behind 2006 in number of sales due to the very high volume of sales we experienced in 2006. YTD for 2007, number of sales are down 1.4% from 2006.

The number most people want to know about though – is value appreciation. The July 2007 Average Sales price of $263,255 is up 6.6% compared to a year ago. The median sales price of $192,273 is up 6.9% from a year ago. Average price per square foot rose to $124 for July 2007 compared to $116 for July 2006, a 6.9% increase. These are solid, healthy numbers. Of course the closer in areas of Austin have even better appreciation numbers, while many of the suburbs are underperforming compared to the overall market.

Days on market is down to 54 average, and 32 Median days on market for July this year compared to 59 and 35 last year. These are very good days on market numbers. A 32 day median days on market means half of all listings in Austin sell in 32 days or less. Not bad at all. So, in 2007, homes are selling faster than a year ago, and selling for higher prices.

Rising inventory (not charted here) and lower number of sales indicate somewhat of a market shift taking place. It looks like the national housing market and the lending mess is starting to creep into our Austin market, though we continue to have great unemployment, good job growth, good population growth, and affordable housing prices compared to many other U.S. metro areas. At present, Austin is one of the fastest growing metro areas in the U.S., which should continue to drive our real estate market provided we don’t run into a nationwide recession or continued loan crises. That said, if the inventory (number of homes on the market) continues to rise, and the number of homes sold continues to slow, something has to give.

I’m behind on my monthly market stats. I should have completed July stats a month ago. I’ll follow this update with August numbers soon, and we’ll see how the market is looking through August. I won’t have MLS Area breakdowns again until third quarter, through end of September.

Below are the July YTD numbers for 2006/2007.

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