Austin Real Estate Market Sales Update – Sept 2007 and YTD

The Austin real estate market is a set of markets within a market. Trying to describe what’s going on is like trying to say what the weather is like right now in the U.S. What is true in one area often does not apply to another. Overall in Austin, the number of sales have dropped, and the inventory has risen, yet the prices overall are rising steadily in most areas, and the Days on Market for homes sold remains very good.

For September, Average Sales Price is up 11% over September last year. Median Sales Price is up 9% over last year. Days on market is 58 days and median days on market is 37 days. Year to date, average sold prices are up 7%, and both average and median days on market have fallen (which is good). When I remove Builder homes (new homes) from the YTD stats, the median days on market drops to 28, which is fantastic and amazing.

That means half of all resale homes sold through the Austin MLS this year sold in 28 days or less, and probably for a higher price than the home would have sold for a year ago. For those sellers, this is a superb outcome to their sales effort, and they would personally report a much different real estate market than the one we read about, given their quick sale.

So, for many sellers and agents, the gloom and doom we read about in the newspaper and hear on the news simply doesn’t show up in their particular sales effort in Austin TX. On the other hand, a rising level of inventory combined with fewer sales does mean something. And it can’t be dismissed. If that continues, I would expect to see the other stats, which remain good, to eventually shift. As listing agents, we assume the shift has already taken place and advise sellers accordingly. As buyer agents, we think buyers can be a bit more agressive than they could have during the summer. We are in fact in a shifting market and it may be that the stats are lagging. Nevertheless, many areas of Austin are not feeling this shift at all yet.

Below you will find the usual stats I post each month plus the Area Breakdown that I normally do each quarter. Here is a summary:

Of the 42 Austin MLS Areas tracked on the breakout chart below, 22 have better than 9% price appreciation YTD over last year.
Of those 22 areas with better than 9% appreciation, 7 have better than 15% appreciation YTD over last year.

Of the 42 Austin MLS Areas tracked, 8 have less than 5% appreciation.
Of those 8 areas, 2 have negative appreciation, Manor (MA) and far East Austin (5E). Both areas with many new starter homes.

Of the 42 areas, 24 (57%) have fewer sales this year than last, but many have much higher sales volume.

Area RN (Steiner Ranch, River Place), for example, has seen almost 40% more homes sold that the same period a year ago, and still has 10% avg and med price appreciation, though days on market is high at 84, and I know that some homes are sitting unsold.

Area 3, in close-in northeast Austin, has 51% fewer homes sold this year compared to last, and the average prices of the homes in that area are up 16%. So there is not necessarily an automatic correlation between the number of sales and the performance of the market.

Area 8E (Eastern part of Westlake/Eanes Schools) is the most expensive area of Austin with an average sales price of $918,694, which is a 16% increase over the same period last year and 4% fewer sales. The least expensive area is far East Austin (5E), with an average sales price of $110,144, which is a 3.18% decline over the average sales price during the same period a year ago, and 12% fewer sales.

In short, the market is mixed and one cannot draw conclusions from one piece of data or the stuff you read in the newspaper or watch on the national news without looking at it in the context of other LOCAL information.

More stats and thoughts below. As usual, comments and questions are welcome, especially if you have a recent/current experience to share.

Below is the September year over year comparison. Note the big increase over Sept last year, but the big drop from a month ago. This is a seasonal adjustment we see after school starts, but some of the month to month drop in sales price could also be slowing appreciation. We’ll have to see how the remaining months of 2007 pan out.

Austin Sales Stats September 2007
Previous Month and Year Comparison
All MLS Areas - Houses Only

 
Aug 2007
Sep 2007
Sep 2006
Yr % Change
# Sold
2258
1697
2269
-25%
Avg List Price
$272,288
$268,896
$239,064
13%
Median List Price
$199,900
$189,900
$175,000
8.5%
Avg Sold Price
$264,673
$258,813
$233,021
11%
Med Sold Price
$195,000
$185,00
$169,910
8.9%
Avg Size SQFT
2165
2114
2074
1.9%
Median SQFT
2000
1934
1866
3.6%
Avg $ per SQFT
$122
$122
$112
8.9%
Avg Days on Mkt
57
59
58
1.7%
Median Days on Mkt
35
39
37
5.4%

Below is the Year to Date chart, for Jan-Sep 2007 compared to 2006. Austin average sales price is up about 7%. That’s a steady, healthy growth. It’s what we told investors last year they might expect this year. If inventory keeps rising and sales keep slowing, I think we’re looking at 5% for 2008 overall, but some pockets (mostly close in areas) will continue to do better than 10% appreciation.

Austin YTD Sales Stats September 2007
Year to Date with Previous Year Comparison
All MLS Areas – Houses Only

 
Jan-Sep 2006
Jan-Sep 2007
Yr % Change
# Sold
20,564
19,494
-5.2%
Avg List Price
$245,915
$263,245
7.1%
Median List Price
$179,875
$189,900
5.7%
Avg Sold Price
$239,741
$256,015
6.8%
Med Sold Price
$175,763
$187,500
6.7%
Avg Size SQFT
2112
2123
0.5%
Median SQFT
1921
1932
0.6%
Avg $ per SQFT
$114
$121
6.1%
Avg Days on Mkt
61
59
-3.2%
Median Days on Mkt
37
34
-8.1%

Below is Year to Date with new home sales removed. Note that the appreciation rates are about the same, but the average sales price for resale homes is about $10K less than when new homes are included in the stats. Also, the days on market is much better for resale homes, which means that the stats reported by the Board of Realtors (which include new homes listed by builders) are skewed by the new homes such that prices seem higher and sales times seem longer.

Austin Sales Stats (resale) Jan-Sep 2007
Year to Date Previous Year Comparison
All MLS Areas - Resale Houses Only - (New Homes Excluded )
 
Jan-Sep 2006
Jan-Sep 2007
Yr % Change
# Sold
16034
14588
-9%
Avg List Price
$234,535
$252,752
7.8%
Median List Price
$174,900
$184,000
5.2%
Avg Sold Price
$229,181
$246,970
7.8%
Med Sold Price
$172,000
$184,000
7.0%
Avg Size SQFT
2067
2078
0.5%
Median SQFT
1880
1896
0.9%
Avg $ per SQFT
$111
$119
7.2%
Avg Days on Mkt
56
51
-8.9%
Median Days on Mkt
32
28
-14%

Below is the area breakdown and an mls map. This is for Jan-Sep 2007 compared to Jan-Sep 2006, single family homes only (no condos or townhomes). If you have questions about your area, let me know. If you are not familiar with the MLS areas, a map is at the bottom of the page.


MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
All Areas 2007 19494 $256,015 $187,500 2,123 $120.59 59 1989

2006 20564 $239,741 $175,763 2,112 $113.51 61 1988
Change -5.20% 6.79% 6.68% 0.52% 6.23% -3.28% 1
MLS Area YTD-Apr # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
1A 2007 215 $485,608 $453,000 2,685 $180.86 50 1978
2006 232 $457,878 $415,565 2,739 $167.17 59 1976
Change -7.33% 6.06% 9.01% -1.97% 8.19% -15% 2
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
1B 2007 282 $712,354 $600,950 2,527 $281.90 58 1959
2006 337 $637,252 $540,000 2,532 $251.68 69 1959
Change -16.32% 11.79% 11.29% -0.20% 12.01% -16% 0
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
1N 2007 457 $299,251 $267,000 2,189 $136.71 32 1984
2006 533 $279,728 $250,000 2,202 $127.03 37 1985
Change -14.26% 6.98% 6.80% -0.59% 7.61% -14% -1
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
2 2007 318 $253,246 $245,000 1,398 $181.15 31 1957
2006 406 $217,851 $212,725 1,374 $158.55 34 1958
Change -21.67% 16.25% 15.17% 1.75% 14.25% -8.82% -1
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
2N 2007 243 $146,580 $141,500 1,521 $96.37 36 1974
2006 324 $136,412 $128,950 1,493 $91.37 46 1973
Change -25.00% 7.45% 9.73% 1.88% 5.48% -21.74% 1
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
3 2007 152 $199,225 $195,000 1,473 $135.25 42 1962
2006 311 $171,020 $156,000 1,458 $117.30 36 1959
Change -51.13% 16.49% 25.00% 1.03% 15.31% 16.67% 3
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
3E 2007 176 $120,117 $117,051 1,436 $83.65 83 1995
2006 103 $106,112 $103,774 1,335 $79.48 74 1993
Change 70.87% 13.20% 12.79% 7.57% 5.24% 12.16% 2
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
4 2007 294 $350,009 $321,875 1,519 $230.42 46 1952
2006 320 $299,429 $275,250 1,424 $210.27 43 1950
Change -8.13% 16.89% 16.94% 6.67% 9.58% 6.98% 2
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
5 2007 307 $175,434 $155,000 1,167 $150.33 55 1956
2006 342 $151,512 $134,070 1,187 $127.64 62 1962
Change -10.23% 15.79% 15.61% -1.68% 17.77% -11.29% -6
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
5E 2007 76 $110,144 $109,900 1,518 $72.56 66 2000
2006 86 $113,763 $112,000 1,555 $73.16 47 1996
Change -11.63% -3.18% -1.88% -2.38% -0.82% 40.43% 4
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
6 2007 232 $349,852 $320,700 1,481 $236.23 45 1960
2006 252 $326,838 $295,500 1,556 $210.05 59 1958
Change -7.94% 7.04% 8.53% -4.82% 12.46% -23.73% 2
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
7 2007 103 $388,516 $379,900 1,621 $239.68 43 1959
2006 101 $351,778 $335,000 1,676 $209.89 45 1960
Change 1.98% 10.44% 13.40% -3.28% 14.19% -4.44% -1
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
8E 2007 215 $918,694 $718,000 3,568 $257.48 58 1987
2006 223 $791,726 $660,000 3,491 $226.79 75 1987
Change -3.59% 16.04% 8.79% 2.21% 13.53% -22.67% 0
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
8W 2007 248 $713,416 $550,000 3,478 $205.12 64 1991
2006 255 $692,222 $495,000 3,390 $204.20 65 1990
Change -2.75% 3.06% 11.11% 2.60% 0.45% -1.54% 1
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
9 2007 72 $160,728 $155,106 1,507 $106.65 47 1987
2006 62 $145,516 $143,362 1,501 $96.95 51 1973
Change 16.13% 10.45% 8.19% 0.40% 10.01% -7.84% 14
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
10N 2007 248 $187,059 $164,550 1,439 $129.99 27 1971
2006 315 $145,115 $136,100 1,378 $105.31 33 1971
Change -21.27% 28.90% 20.90% 4.43% 23.44% -18.18% 0
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
10S 2007 639 $173,683 $166,000 1,628 $106.68 26 1987
2006 768 $155,232 $149,000 1,619 $95.88 33 1987
Change -16.80% 11.89% 11.41% 0.56% 11.27% -21.21% 0
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
11 2007 252 $119,180 $116,750 1,413 $84.35 53 1989
2006 256 $104,703 $100,850 1,316 $79.56 56 1986
Change -1.56% 13.83% 15.77% 7.37% 6.01% -5.36% 3
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
CLN 2007 997 $167,775 $149,200 1,951 $85.99 54 1999
2006 1161 $157,761 $139,900 1,961 $80.45 57 1999
Change -14.13% 6.35% 6.65% -0.51% 6.89% -5.26% 0
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
CLS 2007 911 $233,486 $210,000 2,348 $99.44 54 1998
2006 938 $208,898 $183,250 2,279 $91.66 61 1997
Change -2.88% 11.77% 14.60% 3.03% 8.49% -11.48% 1
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
EL 2007 223 $134,642 $122,450 1,791 $75.18 80 1992
2006 182 $130,753 $118,700 1,806 $72.40 82 1990
Change 22.53% 2.97% 3.16% -0.83% 3.84% -2.44% 2
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
GTE 2007 299 $156,454 $136,200 1,744 $89.71 54 1989
2006 294 $143,521 $130,016 1,720 $83.44 62 1897
Change 1.70% 9.01% 4.76% 1.40% 7.51% -12.90% 92
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
GTW 2007 674 $258,425 $220,805 2,283 $113.20 73 1996
2006 677 $244,770 $219,900 2,292 $106.79 80 1995
Change -0.44% 5.58% 0.41% -0.39% 5.99% -8.75% 1
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
HD 2007 320 $409,069 $345,000 2,884 $141.84 87 1997
2006 367 $339,399 $305,000 2,696 $125.89 90 1995
Change -12.81% 20.53% 13.11% 6.97% 12.67% -3.33% 2
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
HH 2007 889 $170,896 $152,800 2,006 $85.19 72 1999
2006 816 $168,689 $146,010 2,027 $83.22 72 1998
Change 8.95% 1.31% 4.65% -1.04% 2.37% 0.00% 1
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
HU 2007 520 $148,104 $139,125 1,868 $79.28 73 2003
2006 444 $145,868 $135,995 1,896 $76.93 66 2003
Change 17.12% 1.53% 2.30% -1.48% 3.05% 10.61% 0
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
LN 2007 212 $293,106 $199,200 2,108 $139.04 84 1996
2006 270 $259,361 $192,700 2,114 $122.69 96 1994
Change -21.48% 13.01% 3.37% -0.28% 13.33% -12.50% 2
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
LS 2007 667 $479,771 $370,000 2,743 $174.91 84 1996
2006 815 $446,779 $341,368 2,820 $158.43 82 1996
Change -18.16% 7.38% 8.39% -2.73% 10.40% 2.44% 0
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
MA 2007 261 $154,644 $134,222 1,892 $81.74 86 2003
2006 194 $157,074 $132,367 1,902 $82.58 88 2001
Change 34.54% -1.55% 1.40% -0.53% -1.03% -2.27% 2
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
N 2007 410 $188,092 $180,000 1,911 $98.43 29 1991
2006 410 $174,112 $169,250 1,900 $91.64 42 1991
Change 0.00% 8.03% 6.35% 0.58% 7.41% -30.95% 0
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
NE 2007 291 $152,711 $154,500 1,759 $86.82 55 1989
2006 322 $142,350 $141,950 1,768 $80.51 64 1989
Change -9.63% 7.28% 8.84% -0.51% 7.83% -14.06% 0
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
NW 2007 592 $249,213 $205,300 2,293 $108.68 34 1987
2006 700 $232,527 $192,250 2,321 $100.18 42 1988
Change -15.43% 7.18% 6.79% -1.21% 8.48% -19.05% -1
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
PF 2007 1180 $166,086 $156,500 2,059 $80.66 60 1999
2006 1235 $153,949 $146,000 1,984 $77.60 63 1998
Change -4.45% 7.88% 7.19% 3.78% 3.95% -4.76% 1
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
RN 2007 646 $543,256 $463,750 3,427 $158.52 84 2001
2006 463 $495,455 $420,000 3,347 $148.03 76 1999
Change 39.52% 9.65% 10.42% 2.39% 7.09% 10.53% 2
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
RRE 2007 1287 $183,572 $156,000 2,132 $86.10 63 1997
2006 1217 $175,831 $145,000 2,135 $82.36 63 1996
Change 5.75% 4.40% 7.59% -0.14% 4.55% 0.00% 1
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
RRW 2007 1139 $241,274 $222,500 2,521 $95.71 56 1997
2006 1222 $220,199 $197,100 2,470 $89.15 59 1996
Change -6.79% 9.57% 12.89% 2.06% 7.35% -5.08% 1
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
SC 2007 166 $199,265 $174,340 2,227 $89.48 62 1998
2006 143 $195,743 $167,841 2,193 $89.26 77 1996
Change 16.08% 1.80% 3.87% 1.55% 0.25% -19.48% 2
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
SE 2007 160 $122,023 $119,397 1,718 $71.03 53 2002
2006 131 $109,740 $106,750 1,676 $65.48 56 1998
Change 22.14% 11.19% 11.85% 2.51% 8.47% -5.36% 4
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
SWE 2007 550 $231,610 $216,000 2,162 $107.13 47 1998
2006 543 $204,884 $193,750 2,117 $96.78 41 1996
Change 1.29% 13.04% 11.48% 2.13% 10.69% 14.63% 2
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
SWW 2007 582 $300,650 $283,650 2,495 $120.50 36 1996
2006 651 $274,665 $259,777 2,519 $109.04 36 1996
Change -10.60% 9.46% 9.19% -0.95% 10.51% 0.00% 0
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
UT 2007 35 $450,340 $410,000 1,905 $236.40 57 1937
2006 56 $407,934 $375,000 1,703 $239.54 40 1932
Change -37.50% 10.40% 9.33% 11.86% -1.31% 42.50% 5
MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Year Blt
W 2007 251 $559,513 $351,000 3,038 $184.17 65 1993
2006 308 $541,672 $345,000 3,141 $172.45 74 1994
Change -18.51% 3.29% 1.74% -3.28% 6.80% -12.16% -1

Austin MLS Map

Posted by Steve
8 years ago
Steve

Steve is a Real Estate Blogger, Husband and Dad, UT Austin Grad, Runner, Real Estate Broker and owner of Crossland Team and Crossland Real Estate in Austin TX.

Click Here to Leave a Comment Below

CarterB - 8 years ago

Is there a reason you don’t have stats for the DT segment?

Reply
Steve - 8 years ago

Hi Carter,

There has only been 1 sale of a single family home in area DT for all of 2007. There were 3 in all of 2006, so it’s not enough data to be meaningful. In all likelihood, those homes were purchased for commercial purposes anyway.

Steve

Reply
Observer - 8 years ago

Steve,

There’s mistype in the second chart Avg List Price – “Yr % Change” should be positive, not negative

Reply
k - 8 years ago

ok-that’s huge drop for downtown. 3 sold in 2006 and only 1 sold in 2007. WOW! Do you know what the sales were for 2005? If that is your data of DT sales…that’s the data-that’s the facts too. That is a huge drop…

How do the lower markets not selling affect the upper markets? We’ve always sold and moved up to a nicer home/neighborhood. That’s what most people do too. That worries me if lower markets aren’t doing well.

How does consumer confidence effect the market?

How does the fallen value of the US dollar effect the Austin market?

How does the quartly reports from the home builders effect the market? They are reporting up to 48% drop out rates-less than expected earnings, builder credit worth drop

What about the foreclosure rate?

What about people having a harder time getting loans and qualified for homes – how can you move up if you can’t sell your house and get a loan or if you can…you can’t afford the higher intest rates

How are the about things going to effect the Austin real estate market in say..the next year? the next 2 years? If people are relocating to Austin from other parts of the US where their markets have declined by as much as 50% and they have to pay their mortgages off before buying here….they aren’t going to have as much $$$ to spend in Austin….I can’t see how what is happening in other markets in the US isn’t going to effect us.

There are plenty of reports for all to read. Times are interesting right now. Reports from very educated economists.

Reply
Scott - 8 years ago

Steve

Once again, thanks for the information. I always look forward to your quarterly reports. Its good to see a nice, linear increase in my property values in my neighborhood (10S).

Reply
k - 8 years ago

An informative article in the Statesman this past Sat.

You can cut and paste the link if it doesn’t work by just clicking on it.

http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/realestate/10/20/1020homesales.html

Reply
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