Austin Real Estate Market Update – November 2007

by Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX on December 26, 2007 · 6 comments

The number of homes sold in Austin for November 2007 was down 19% from November 2006. Average sales price is up 6.5% $255,073 and Median sales price is up 7.9% from $175,000 a year ago to $188,900 this year for November. Average price per square foot is up 4.4% to $119 per square foot. Average Days on Market is up 7.9% to 68 days (still not bad) and the Median Days on Market is up 12.4% to 46 days, meaning hlf of all homes sold in November sold in 46 days or less.

Not reflected in these stats is that inventory remains high and many homes in fact are not selling. There are currently 8,144 single family homes on the market as of this posting (Dec 26, 2007), which is too many given current demand. I’ll update my Sold vs. Not Sold chart to include October and November soon and I suspect we might have have more “Not Solds” in November that there were closed sales.

Finally, the stats are missing Median Values for the year-to-date charts below. That’s because of our crappy new MLS software and the fact that it can’t perfom certain high-count median stats.

November stats as well as year to date and Resale vs. New home sales charts are below.

Austin Sales Stats November 2007
Previous Month and Year Comparison
All MLS Areas – Houses Only

 
Oct 2007
Nov 2007
Nov 2006
Yr % Change
# Sold
1641
1527
1880
-19%
Avg List Price
$255,617
$266,062
$246,646
7.9%
Median List Price
$189,888
$197,500
$179,900
9.8%
Avg Sold Price
$246,796
$255,073
$239,478
6.5%
Med Sold Price
$183,961
$188,900
$175,000
7.9%
Avg Size SQFT
2102
2151
2099
2.5%
Median SQFT
1917
1951
1902
2.6%
Avg $ per SQFT
$117
$119
$114
4.4%
Avg Days on Mkt
69
68
63
7.9%
Median Days on Mkt
47
46
41
12%

Below is the year-to-date summary, missing the median figures due to limitations of our “new” MLS System, which is less capable than the previous one. Go figure.

Austin YTD Sales Stats November 2007
Year to Date with Previous Year Comparison
All MLS Areas – Houses Only

 
Jan-Nov 2006
Jan-Nov 2007
Yr % Change
# Sold
24,436
22,819
-6.6%
Avg List Price
$244,989
$262,515
7.2%
Median List Price
Avg Sold Price
$238,766
$254,908
6.8%
Med Sold Price
Avg Size SQFT
2109
2166
2.7%
Median SQFT
Avg $ per SQFT
$113
$118
4.4%
Avg Days on Mkt
58
56
-3.4%
Median Days on Mkt

Below are the YTD stats with new homes (that sell through the MLS) removed. Below that, for the first tiime, I’ve run new home sales alone.

Austin Sales Stats (resale) Jan-Nov 2007
Year to Date Previous Year Comparison
All MLS Areas – Resale Houses Only – (New Homes Excluded )
 
Jan-Nov 2006
Jan-Nov 2007
Yr % Change
# Sold
18,996
16,965
-11%
Avg List Price
$233,294
$252,326
8.2%
Median List Price
Avg Sold Price
$227,916
$246,276
8.1%
Med Sold Price
Avg Size SQFT
2063
2074
0.5%
Median SQFT
Avg $ per SQFT
$110
$119
8.2%
Avg Days on Mkt
52
49
5.8%
Median Days on Mkt

Below are New Homes only. Interesting to note that while the number of sales in Austin overall has dropped, more new homes sold through the MLS this year than last. That could be because they are harder to sell, so more get entered. The prices of the new homes are definately flatter (though higher) than those of our resale homes in Austin.

Austin Sales Stats (new homes) Jan-Nov 2007
Year to Date Previous Year Comparison
All MLS Areas – New Houses Only – Sold thru MLS
 
Jan-Nov 2006
Jan-Nov 2007
Yr % Change
# Sold
3678
3727
1.3%
Avg List Price
$299,101
$306,543
2.5%
Median List Price
Avg Sold Price
$288,908
$292,482
1.2%
Med Sold Price
Avg Size SQFT
2449
2467
0.7%
Median SQFT
Avg $ per SQFT
$118
$119
0.8%
Avg Days on Mkt
88
92
4.5%
Median Days on Mkt

{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Scott December 26, 2007 at 11:37 pm

Steve

Thanks again for providing thoughtfully analyzed and well organized data. Am I correctly assuming that the reduction in sales is a direct result of the loss of loans from lenders participating in the sub-prime lending dibacle?

Scott

2 arz December 27, 2007 at 2:18 am

if you look at the data of those markets that currently got hit hard, you will find similar patterns. House prices keep steady and even move up a notch while things get worse. The panicky mode has not yet sink in. It takes another 3-5 months before things really get ugly. I don’t know if Austin can hang on for how much longer, but if the national trend is also true here, we will see price slipping in this spirng/summer. That would be sad for those who purchased their home in the last couple of summers. Let’s hope it won’t happen.

3 Steve Crossland December 27, 2007 at 8:54 am

Hi arz,

At the risk of sounding like a rah rah Realtor trying to spread sunshine, I honestly don’t see Austin following that trend. I’m expecting things to pick up again in the spring. All of our economic indicators are solid. Unemployment is low, job growth is good, and we are less oversold to investors than many of the areas you mention.

And remember, many of those areas had 5 years of appreciation for people to get sucked into. Austin was flat on prices from mid 2001 through the end of 2005. It was only from early 2006 through about the middle of 2007 that we saw strong price appreciation, and that appreciation wasn’t astronomical, but was a health 10% give or take, depending on the area of Austin we look at.

So I don’t think we share the same set of factors that are causing other areas to drop in prices. We have not attained an artificially high average price point from which to fall. I think we’ll continue to see “two markets”, in which many homes fail to sell, but the ones that do sell enjoy relatively strong demand and sell for good prices.

The outlying areas (Hutto, Manor, Kyle, Buda, etc.) may be different though, so I mainly speak from an Austin-proper viewpoint.

Steve

4 Julia December 27, 2007 at 3:00 pm

In the first paragraph, I think you typo-ed the average price per square foot. I think it’s actually $119 not $199. (Looking at your charts, anyway.) I really enjoy all this local information, even though I’m not shopping for or selling real estate. It’s too bad the new MLS system has less data than the previous one. I would think median numbers would be pretty useful to know!!

Thanks for writing these informative articles!

5 Steve Crossland December 27, 2007 at 4:36 pm

> In the first paragraph, I think you typo-ed the average price per square foot.
Yes, thanks for cathing that. I fixed it.
Steve

6 Jim December 28, 2007 at 12:31 pm

Even last year when I ran market stats for myself, I saw decreased sales volume if I excluded all the outlaying areas like Manor, Hutto, Kyle, etc. The core Austin market (without RR and Pflugerville) has had a falling volume for a while, which is why prices are going up. If anyone tried to buy a decent condo or townhouse in central Austin recently will see that there’s almost nothing good out there for under $250k – $300k. I imagine it’s similar in other desirable areas.

The outskirts have never been a desirable market anyway, and the only thing that sustained the volume there in the past were cheap loans to desperate poor people who had no business owning a home. Now the loan market for them has shut down, so those houses out there are experiencing a downturn as well.

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