The Austin real estate market is a set of markets within a market. Trying to describe what’s going on is like trying to say what the weather is like right now in the U.S. What is true in one area often does not apply to another. Overall in Austin, the number of sales have dropped, and the inventory has risen, yet the prices overall are rising steadily in most areas, and the Days on Market for homes sold remains very good.
For September, Average Sales Price is up 11% over September last year. Median Sales Price is up 9% over last year. Days on market is 58 days and median days on market is 37 days. Year to date, average sold prices are up 7%, and both average and median days on market have fallen (which is good). When I remove Builder homes (new homes) from the YTD stats, the median days on market drops to 28, which is fantastic and amazing.
That means half of all resale homes sold through the Austin MLS this year sold in 28 days or less, and probably for a higher price than the home would have sold for a year ago. For those sellers, this is a superb outcome to their sales effort, and they would personally report a much different real estate market than the one we read about, given their quick sale.
So, for many sellers and agents, the gloom and doom we read about in the newspaper and hear on the news simply doesn’t show up in their particular sales effort in Austin TX. On the other hand, a rising level of inventory combined with fewer sales does mean something. And it can’t be dismissed. If that continues, I would expect to see the other stats, which remain good, to eventually shift. As listing agents, we assume the shift has already taken place and advise sellers accordingly. As buyer agents, we think buyers can be a bit more agressive than they could have during the summer. We are in fact in a shifting market and it may be that the stats are lagging. Nevertheless, many areas of Austin are not feeling this shift at all yet.
Below you will find the usual stats I post each month plus the Area Breakdown that I normally do each quarter. Here is a summary:
Of the 42 Austin MLS Areas tracked on the breakout chart below, 22 have better than 9% price appreciation YTD over last year.
Of those 22 areas with better than 9% appreciation, 7 have better than 15% appreciation YTD over last year.
Of the 42 Austin MLS Areas tracked, 8 have less than 5% appreciation.
Of those 8 areas, 2 have negative appreciation, Manor (MA) and far East Austin (5E). Both areas with many new starter homes.
Of the 42 areas, 24 (57%) have fewer sales this year than last, but many have much higher sales volume.
Area RN (Steiner Ranch, River Place), for example, has seen almost 40% more homes sold that the same period a year ago, and still has 10% avg and med price appreciation, though days on market is high at 84, and I know that some homes are sitting unsold.
Area 3, in close-in northeast Austin, has 51% fewer homes sold this year compared to last, and the average prices of the homes in that area are up 16%. So there is not necessarily an automatic correlation between the number of sales and the performance of the market.
Area 8E (Eastern part of Westlake/Eanes Schools) is the most expensive area of Austin with an average sales price of $918,694, which is a 16% increase over the same period last year and 4% fewer sales. The least expensive area is far East Austin (5E), with an average sales price of $110,144, which is a 3.18% decline over the average sales price during the same period a year ago, and 12% fewer sales.
In short, the market is mixed and one cannot draw conclusions from one piece of data or the stuff you read in the newspaper or watch on the national news without looking at it in the context of other LOCAL information.
More stats and thoughts below. As usual, comments and questions are welcome, especially if you have a recent/current experience to share.
Below is the September year over year comparison. Note the big increase over Sept last year, but the big drop from a month ago. This is a seasonal adjustment we see after school starts, but some of the month to month drop in sales price could also be slowing appreciation. We’ll have to see how the remaining months of 2007 pan out.
Austin Sales Stats September 2007
Previous Month and Year Comparison
All MLS Areas - Houses Only
|
Aug 2007
|
Sep 2007
|
Sep 2006
|
Yr % Change
|
# Sold |
2258
|
1697
|
2269
|
-25%
|
Avg List Price |
$272,288
|
$268,896
|
$239,064
|
13%
|
Median List Price |
$199,900
|
$189,900
|
$175,000
|
8.5%
|
Avg Sold Price |
$264,673
|
$258,813
|
$233,021
|
11%
|
Med Sold Price |
$195,000
|
$185,00
|
$169,910
|
8.9%
|
Avg Size SQFT |
2165
|
2114
|
2074
|
1.9%
|
Median SQFT |
2000
|
1934
|
1866
|
3.6%
|
Avg $ per SQFT |
$122
|
$122
|
$112
|
8.9%
|
Avg Days on Mkt |
57
|
59
|
58
|
1.7%
|
Median Days on Mkt |
35
|
39
|
37
|
5.4%
|
Below is the Year to Date chart, for Jan-Sep 2007 compared to 2006. Austin average sales price is up about 7%. That’s a steady, healthy growth. It’s what we told investors last year they might expect this year. If inventory keeps rising and sales keep slowing, I think we’re looking at 5% for 2008 overall, but some pockets (mostly close in areas) will continue to do better than 10% appreciation.
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