Sylvia’s Notes from Central Texas Growth Summit

January 31, 2008

Sylvia attended the Central Texas Growth Summit yesterday at the Hilton Hotel in downtown Austin. She typed up some pretty good notes that she emailed out to others, and I’m posting them below.

Here are some highlights with Kirk Watson (former Austin Mayor, current State Senator) as the moderator:

1. Change in Hunting patterns - Since the unemployment rate is 3.5% in Austin, essentially everyone that wants a job has one.

This is affecting the hiring patterns of small business owners and how they recruit talented employees. They are using the Internet more and networking in many ways is becoming more common in Myspace and Facebook. If you are not using this method, you are getting left behind.

Another area of recruiting is creating the talented employee by setting up educational programs that essentially train and create homegrown employees. Programs like this are being creating at ACC. UT is at capacity and cannot keep up with the demand of the job growth in Austin so we will have to get employees outside of Austin also.

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How to set up a KW Agent Real Estate Blog

January 30, 2008

Today at our Keller Williams office in Austin we had a “Blogging 101″ class that I put together to help agents better understand everything involved with having a real estate blog. According to a National Association of Realtors agent survey, less than 2% of Realtors publish a real estate blog.

I was joined in the presentation by fellow KW agents and bloggers Dee Copeland and Sam Chapman. I wanted other blogger agents involved because we all have slightly different takes on the best way to run a blog, tools to use, do’s and don’ts, etc. It’s better that agents who know nothing at all about blogging hear several points of view about what’s involved. I could confuse them enough myself, but with three of us we achieved an even greater level of confusion!

One of the things we sought to impart to the attendees was the different choices available in setting up and starting a blog. One can start instantly, right now, by signing up at Blogger.com or Wordpress.com, but I am of the camp that believes a blog should be integrated into an existing website, not kept at a hosted location or separate from an agent’s main site. The CrosslandTeam.com website is an example of the two being integrated on a common domain with a common theme.

So, if you’re just starting out, I think you should have your own domain name, your own web hosting account, and run a downloaded version Wordpress on your website.

By doing so, all of the content and information you create on your blog directly benefits your website because it is your domain name and website that is indexed by all of the search engines. With a hosted blog site, people may find your blog, but you miss out on the seo benefits, which is why you want to write a blog in the first place.

In trying to explain this during the class, I lost a few people, so I promised I would write up a step by step guide to follow for those wanting to own and maintain their own website/blog, and so here it is.

Step 1 - Register your own domain name.
Get out your credit card and visit Godaddy.com. On the home page, there is a box to type in domain names and check availability. You want a website dot.com name that is a) easy to say, b) easy to spell, c) easy to remember, d) short if possible and with no dashes or numbers. Remember, as a Realtor, you’re telling your email and website address to people on the phone a lot, and you don’t want to be spelling it out and repeating it every time.
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Redfin CEO Says He’s Being Picked On

January 29, 2008

Below is an article about the Discount Realtor Redfin’s CEO Glenn Kelman, who, having failed to achieve more than niche success in the real estate industry (despite a couple of years of gushing media adoration and favorable stories on shows such as 60 minutes), claims now that he’s being picked on.

Dude, you were thumping your chest and throwing down some big smack talk about us traditional Realtors not long ago, boasting of Redfin’s pending spread into all major cities in the U.S. What happened?

This reminds me of a “big talk” sports athlete popping off about how his team is going to devastate the opponent, then after failing to follow through on the boast, whines about the bad ref, or says the other team didn’t play fair.

Quit being a crybaby and go sell some houses. Oh, wait, your model only works in very hot markets where Realtors are deemed unnecessary. Oh, and there are no hot markets at present, at least not in the markets you’ve decided to conquer. Once the game gets tough, you can’t compete. Buyers and Sellers actually want experienced agents, not telemarketers.

Story and additional comments inline below…

Source: Forbes, (02/11/08)

Glenn Kelman, CEO of Redfin, the online discount real estate sales firm, claims he and his company have been badly treated by traditional real estate practitioners.

He complains that Redfin’s for-sale signs are often knocked down, stolen, or smashed.

So are mine. It happens all the time. I had 4 stolen over a two month period from one listing alone. Welcome to the business. Quit complaining and go buy some more signs, if you can afford them.
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Austin Real Estate Market Update - Dec 2007

January 29, 2008

Austin real estate market stats for single family homes in Dec 2007 saw a 20% drop in number sales of over Dec 2006. Average sold prices were up 5.9% and Median sold prices were up 7.8% in December. Average sold price per square foot is up 4.4% over a year ago, and Days on Market inched up from 64 days a year ago to 69 days this December.

Overall in Austin, the market has held very steady and price appreciation is strong in many areas. The main caveat is the high inventory and the resulting high number of homes that fail to sell. If you saw my Sold vs. Not Sold chart from a few days ago, you know that in December 2007, more homes in the Austin MLS expired or were withdrawn than sold. So even though our sold numbers look strong and steady (especially when compared to just about anywhere else in the country), a seller at present should know that it’s a hit or miss market that requires serious preperation and proper pricing for your listing, lest it be ignored and whither on the vine like so many others.

Buyers, with all of these homes not selling, should you be able to get a great deal? Not necessarily. The fact that so many homes are being pulled from the market, and that the actual sold prices keeps rising, tells us that many sellers remain steadfast in holding out for a better price or a better market. Theoretically, you should be able to negotiate a better deal, and you may do so, but in reality, we are not seeing a high degree of seller capitulation.

Below are the December stats and year-to-date stats (2007 compared to 2006). Normally along with December stats I include the area breakdowns year-to-date. This year I will post those in a separate blog article, as I am still trying to finish up. The new MLS system has really slowed down the process for me. Also, you may notice that the Median values are missing below from some of the charts. I can’t get a median value from our MLS system on search results larger than 5,000. Hopefully, that will be fixed soon.

Austin Sales Stats December 2007
Previous Month and Year Comparison
All MLS Areas - Houses Only

 
Nov 2007
Dec 2007
Dec 2006
Yr % Change
# Sold
1527
1533
1928
-20%
Avg List Price
$266,062
$267,290
$250,143
6.7%
Median List Price
$197,500
$199,900
$182,900
9.3%
Avg Sold Price
$255,073
$256,726
$242,326
5.9%
Med Sold Price
$188,900
$194,000
179,900
7.8%
Avg Size SQFT
2151
2168
2145
1.1%
Median SQFT
1951
1983
1960
1.2%
Avg $ per SQFT
$119
$118
$113
4.4%
Avg Days on Mkt
68
69
64
7.8%
Median Days on Mkt
46
51
44
16%

Below is the 2006/2007 full year comparison. For the year, across all MLS areas in Austin, sold prices rose 6.6%, which is really very good considering the gloom and doom story that the media puts out and the fact that a lot of buyers stayed in the sidelines because of that.

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Really Cool Interactive Map on Statesman.com

January 28, 2008

The Austin Statesman has an interactive map up on their website that shows median price changes and sales volume activity for Austin Travis County in 2007 compared to 2006. Jeez, I wish I knew how to create such a nice map for the blog, but I guess they have a bigger budget than me. I’ll be posting my boring charts and graphs as usual.
Meanwhile, check out the Statesman map here (requires flash):
http://www.statesman.com/news/content/business/interactive_sm/01/012508_mlshomes.html

Austin Sold vs Not Sold December 2007

January 27, 2008

Austin Sold/Expired Chart
I predicted a few months ago that November 2007 might see an inverted Sold/Not Sold ratio in the Austin real estate market, that being a situation where more of the listings in the Austin MLS fail to sell than do sell.

I was wrong about November but it did happen in December. For December 2007 there were 1531 single family homes sold in Austin. The same month saw 1732 Expired/Withdrawn listings. Notice the dark and light green bars on the chart above and how the light green bar (failed sales listing) jumped ahead of the solds. This is the Tale of Two Markets situation I wrote about in November.
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Google Coming to Downtown Austin

January 24, 2008

Google AustinGoogle is opening shop in a Downtown Austin historical building. This is great news for Downtown Austin in many ways, not the least of which is the positive buzz created by Google’s move. Google brings with it a certain degree of “brand” buzz that will surely attract even more tech companies to downtown Austin.

There are many great quotes and comments from the article below, but one of my favorites is this:
High-tech recruiters said Austin is a natural fit for Google, which has nearly doubled its work force every year for the past four years and now has about 12,200 employees worldwide. In addition to the specific technical skills that match Google’s personnel needs, Austin’s youthful, freewheeling attitude that encourages risk-taking makes it a good cultural fit, said Kim Butler of Greywolf Consulting Services Inc.

Austin continues to attract new and existing companies. This is one of the important factors when considering which direction our real estate market will head in the long term. Welcome Google!

Full article from today’s Austin Statesman below.

AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Thursday, January 24, 2008

Google is headed to downtown Austin.

The Internet search leader has leased the second floor of the historical Scarbrough Building for an engineering center, said Office Leasing Advisors Inc., the Austin firm that represented Google Inc. in the deal.

Google will occupy 25,000 square feet of the art-deco-style building at Sixth Street and Congress Avenue, Office Leasing said.

Mountain View, Calif.-based Google did not respond to inquiries about the Austin office.

In recent months, Google has posted Internet job listings for an engineering director in Austin to head up a group of 100 or more engineers. It also has posted listings seeking software engineers in Austin. The Scarbrough office could hold 125 to 150 people, according to real estate brokers.

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Showing Feedback Directly to Seller a Bad Idea

January 23, 2008

Feedback I’ve been showing and previewing a lot of property lately - probably more than a hundred homes in the past week. After showing a home and syncing the MLS key each night, the lockbox owners (listing agents) are notified electronically that the lockbox was opened by my key. This normally results in what we call “feedback requests” from other agents. Typically, they will email or call and ask for feedback on the listing.

The other day I received a call from someone asking for feedback on a home. I asked if she was the listing agent, and she said “no, this is the owner”. She was calling from the card I left inside the property (which I always leave in occupied homes so they know that I have been inside).

This is rare, but not unusual. I said simply “I’ll be happy to provide feedback to your agent”. She said, “can you just tell me what you thought and if your buyer is interested?” Again, I said “I’ll be happy to do that if your agent calls me”. After a couple of more tries, she seemed frustrated but finally gave gave up.

Why not tell her directly that they’ve made way too many trips to Home Depot, over decorated the home, screwed up the balance of the home by installing really nice expensive granite counters but also the cheapest pergo flooring (lousy do-it-yourself job to boot), have too many different colors in the house, dog odor in the back room, too many pictures on the walls, and the home is over-priced?

Well, it’s just not a good idea to be saying those things directly to a seller. That’s the listing agent’s job, and the listing agent shouldn’t require my analysis to come to the same conclusion, though I’m happy to offer it. It’s always best to have all communication go through the agents.
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Make Sure your Buyer Agent Provides a CMA before making an Offer

January 22, 2008

The news snippet below briefly outlines a case in which a buyer is suing her buyer’s agent. The buyer feels like the agent allowed her to pay too much for the home she bought. I of course don’t know who is right or wrong in this particular case, ro all of the facts, and it looks like the courts will decide, but it does provide a good opportunity to discuss this.

When we write offers for buyers, we absolutely make sure the buyer understands the current market value of the home. Oddly enough, back in 2006/2007, during the really hot summer markets in Austin, we would often have to hold buyers back from jumping too high in multiple offer situations. It’s frustrating when you miss out on a deal or too, but I still think it’s wise to make sure you know that if you get caught up in a bidding frenzy, you can be giving away the next year or two of appreciation if you are not careful.

At present, the real estate market in Austin is stable but not frantic. There are pockets and areas spanning all levels of strength and weakness. Buyers have a bit more time and more homes to select from. We haven’t had many multiple offer deals lately. But when doing a CMA for an offer, we can be a bit more aggressive in coming in low.

As the article asks below, what are the responsibilities of a Buyer’s Agent? We think the main one is to make sure you don’t pay more than current market value for a home. Under no circumstance would we let a buyer make an offer without first providing a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) for the home, which helps guide the offer price. The agent in the article below may have done that, and he will have a much stronger defense if it’s in writing. Maybe the market has backslid since the home was purchased. Otherwise, the buyer’s claim may have merits that are proven in court.

Disgruntled Buyer Sues Buyer’s Agent
What are the responsibilities of buyer agents? A case being tried next week in North County, Calif., Superior Court will help decide that question.

Buyer Marty Ummel is suing her buyer representative saying he hid information about what similar homes in the neighborhood were selling for because he feared she would back out and he would lose his $30,000 commission.

The defendant in the Ummel case is Mike Little, a veteran practitioner with RE/MAX Associates. He will argue that Marty Ummel, who brought the case with her husband, Vernon, is trying to shift the blame for the couple’s own failures of research and due diligence.

”They simply didn’t do what is expected of a knowledgeable, sophisticated buyer, and are now looking for someone other than themselves to take responsibility,” Roger Holtsclaw, an associate who was hired by Little as an expert witness, said in a court deposition.

The Ummels discovered after they moved in that neighboring houses with similar amenities had sold recently for as much as $100,000 less. Their original suit included the appraiser, who was accused of skewing his report to make the Ummel’s house seem worth the purchase price, and the mortgage broker. Modest settlements have been reached with both.

”I do not think I’m obsessive-compulsive, but I am 114 pounds of absolute perseverance,” says Ummel, who has spent a year picketing the RE/MAX offices on weekends.

Little called the case ”ridiculous,” adding ‘The lady’s a nut job. I didn’t do anything wrong.”

Source: The New York Times, David Streitfeld (01/22/08)

East Austin Real Estate

January 12, 2008

The story below is from tomorrow’s Sunday Austin Statesman. It’s a pretty good overview of the optimism many hold for East Austin’s continued boom. I’ve stayed out of East Austin not because it doesn’t hold promise, but because rehabbing and flipping properties is a specialized and riskier form of investing, and we tend to take a more conservative approach.

Also, once one establishes a set of investment rules that work well, it takes resolve to stick with your criteria, but I believe it’s important to do so. East Austin has terrible schools, street drugs, prostitution and higher crime. It also has many asthetically displeasing aspects (it’s ugly) including many large welfare housing projects scatter about that won’t be going away any time soon. It just ain’t my cup of tea at this stage of my investing life.

That said, if I was 23 and single, as I was when I arrived in Austin in 1985, I would definately be drawn to the vibe and energy of East Austin and could see myself living there. But I don’t see soccer moms jogging with baby strollers through the East side, and that’s one of the barameters I currently look for in choosing an area to invest in.

But I thought this was a good article worth sharing.

Buyers take a fresh look at new and remodeled homes just across I-35 from downtown
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Sunday, January 13, 2008

The numbers will probably surprise anyone who hasn’t ventured east of Interstate 35 lately. The 78702 ZIP code in East Austin currently has more than 150 properties for sale, and they’re just as eclectic as the artists who live in that part of the city.

A slew of modernist homes and condominiums are going for $400,000 to $600,000 or more. Remodeled homes are listed for up to $675,000. And four lots at the corner of Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard and Harvey Street are on the market for $1.8 million.

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