Some of us are more objective than others, and, like cardinal rules of news reporting, objectivity is prized and sometimes
approached in some quarters, but we always retain SOME bias. Stat gathering falls into this same scenario. Look at
economic forecasting. Lets go further. Look at the current paradigm that the housing market is busted. In that case, we look for data that confirm this, and discount accordingly contrary data. Eventually, we wag the dog and prove our prejudices, and possibly drag down markets that were reasonably healthy in the first place. This seems to be happening
with some of the interpretations of current Austin real estate stats. Hard to say what the tea leaves read, but methinks
they are not as moldy and ominous as some would think.

Hi Dave: I don’t know the appreciation rate on waterfront homes in Austin. There is such a variety of homes and different instances of “waterfront” listed in MLS that it would be hard to arrive at a conclusive number. A market analysis on your particular property would be the best way to determine value.

Steve

Great information! We recently purchased a waterfront in Lakeway and were wondering if you have ever been able to come up with a meaningful price appreciation number for homes on the water? Price per square foot doesnt seem to work…

You’re very right about the Austin MLS Areas being mixed. One section of an mls area can make that entire area look better or worse than the true average. That’s why I note above that just because an area has a certain appreciation area-wide, that doesn’t mean the average house would sell for that much more.

I’ve pondered what to do about that when running stats. I’ve thought about doing it by zipcode, but the same problem exists. I’ve thought about breaking out by school boundaries, subdivisions, etc, but always there is an issue such as you mention. In the end, I decided it is what it is and it’s up to individual agents and buyers/sellers to drill down to the next level when determining what a good offer/sales price should be, or if an area is worthy of further investigation for investment.

Thanks for your comments and insight!
Steve

MLS AREA 5: there’s a huge difference here. Zip code 78702 has a lot of new condos, so if you look at prices of single family homes, they often won’t break 200k unless they’re closer to the river or larger. 78721 is even slower. That’s a bad area that was growing, but has now hit the skids since no one wants to pay over $150k to live there. I’d say homes need to be priced under $135k in 78721 to sell quickly.

Basically, I think 78721 and 78702 in MLS Area 5 need to be separated. I also think 78723 and 78722 in Area 3 need to be separated. They’re totally different markets. I’m in a class this week, but plan on running East Austin stats by zip to see what the differences are.