I would not be surprised to see homes out in Elgin/Manor or far northern Leander/Cedar Park to lose $20-60k in value, simply based on affordability. Those people that have jobs in the immediate area will get bargains. And perhaps, this is as it should be. Will prices actually decline? I suspect instead they will mostly stay the same, just not appreciating in normative price until inflation eats away at that hypothetical $20-60k loss of affordability. Thats just how the Austin market seems to work. Prices never decline (except in real dollars), just stagnate for a few years.

It still boils down to location, location, location. I think people still want surburban neighborhoods with good schools, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it means some areas not currently particularly “hot” will become so soon. In particular I’m thinking of the neighborhoods developed in the mid and late 70s around Austin. They are central enough for shorter commutes compared to newest developments, and although not commonly 2200+ two stories they way everything else is now, they are big enough to raise a family.

Unrelatedly, I also am fascinated that all those new developments are almost entirely two-story homes. A sold 70s ranch home without steps has got to have additional value owing to the population of aging boomers.

Since then, safety and emmission requirements have made such mileage impossible in a traditional vehicle. If we went back to 1980′s technology and produced retro Hondas’, I bet they’d get even better than 52 mpg today with the other advancements in technology that could be manufactored into the vehicle.

A small 100 mpg 1 or 2 person commuter vehicle would certainly have to be exempt from current airbag, brake ,etc. requirements.

Funny thing is, I’m seeing more and more motorcycles and scooters. Those have obviously no airbags and would not be my first choice for getting in a wreck on, but people are going to start choosing savings over safety at some level.

Steve

Unfortunately Austin (nor much of the western USA) does not lend itself to the “live where you work” ideal. A lot of people pretend that it does. The newer live/work developments are pretty much a joke unless you want to work at a coffee shop or a Best Buy. No doubt the central city ,which I love dearly, is where it’s at for immediate appreciation but if any of the 20 “Fastest growing places in USA” lists that are published on a seemingly weekly basis are even remotely true all of the people moving here need someplace to live. They can’t all live in the central city. There just aren’t enough homes. Not to mention a good amount of the major employers (especially in the high-tech arena) are located at the perimeter.

There are a lot of doomsayers out there spewing FUD but I feel pretty sure that everything is going to work out fine in the long run for everybody. Buck the Hick will have to give up his SUV and switch to something more fuel efficient, and Weatherby the Yippie will let go of his holier-than-thou attitude about those who didn’t make the same choices as he did as far as home location goes.

It is possible that the technology will get here so fast that housing prices wont have time to really be damaged in the suburbs.

The commuter rail trip takes you a couple miles out of your way only to board a shuttle bus (ever tried to fill a bus completely?) and then ride through the stuck traffic a mile or two back west to UT or the Capitol. (different shuttles for each).

I’ve been writing about this on my blog for about 5 years now. It’s not light rail; it’s not what other cities did to great success with light rail; we’re actually modelling ourselves after a commuter rail service in South Florida (Tri-Rail) which has been a disaster for two decades.

Baby Boomers: Speaking for Sylvia and I, we are going to want to be close in. It’s 7 more years until our youngest heads to college, and we’ll definitely downsize then, if sooner – after the first one heads off in 3 years.

Big Land: Well, we live on 1 acre currently, and it’s too much for me to mow. It’s not a productive use of my time so we have a lawn crew. We had 6 acres at one time and it is indeed a lot of work when wind storms damage trees, you have to keep fire hazards at bay by chopping brush, etc. I think 1 acre would be a challenge for many people, so I’ll stick with my statement that, at least for city dwellers moving out into the rural areas, 5 acres is indeed “big land”.

Non Boomer, I’m on the same page as you, though I’ve encountered Sun City aged buyers who want nothing to do with hanging out with a bunch of old people playing cards, golfing and talking politics. Me neither. When I’m old, I’ll want to be in denial about it and still living like I’m younger.

Steve

Those people will be buying those out-there homes. And with the baby boomers all starting to retire now, I think there will still be a market there.

You might have a case of retiring baby boomers and rural Dinks simply trading places.

But I think you’re right on about home prices. We’re hoping that our home near the corner of Bee Cave/360 will continue to appreciate as people search for homes closer to town (6 miles to Downtown for us).