Austin Real Estate Market Update – July 2008

The average sales price for houses in Austin in July 2008 remained about level, decreasing slightly (0.05%) to $262,114. The number of failed sales efforts (expired or withdrawn) was 42%, which is a large number. Days on market continues to climb also, to 60 days average on market and 39 median days on market. Those numbers are not bad actually, but last year DOM was 51 and 31, so things are definitely slower this year.

Here is a quick summary of the July stats.
• Number of homes sold is down 24% from 2,544 July 2007 to 1,926 July 2008.
• Average sold prices in Austin were down 0.05% over the same month last year to $262,114.
• Median sold price was up 3.65% over the same month last year to $199,000.
• Avg sold price per square foot is down 2.62% from July 2007 to $121 per sqft.
• Avg days on market is up 9 days (18%) from 51 last year to 60 this July.
• Median days on market is up 8 days (26%) from 31 days last year to 39 this year.
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is up a whopping 56% over the same month last year, to 42% of all removed listings.

Below is the chart with these stats, along with a YTD chart.

One thing to note is that it was about this time last year, or a bit earlier, when we really started to notice the Austin real estate market slowing down. Because of that, I think moving forward we’re going to see the year over year gaps narrow somewhat as we move into comparing a slower period 2008 to a slower period 2007. In other words, we’re a year into our Austin lull, so were not comparing a hot market for the year prior to a cool market as we have been for about the past year.

Austin Real Estate Market Update for July 2008
All Austin / Central TX MLS Areas – Houses Only

Jun 2008
Jul 2008
Jul 2007
Yr % Change
# Sold
2032
1926
2544
-24.29%
Avg List
$274,504
$271,058
$269,722
0.50%
Med List
$209,000
$203,443
$196,250
3.67%
Avg Sold
$264,653
$262,114
$262,233
-0.05%
Med Sold
$202,000
$199,000
$192,000
3.65%
List/Sold %
96.41%
96.70%
97.22%
-0.54%
Avg SQFT
2133
2170
2114
2.65%
Med SQFT
1949
1965
1919
2.40%
Avg $ SQFT
$124
$121
$124
-2.62%
Avg DOM
61
60
51
17.65%
Median DOM
36
39
31
25.81%
# Expired
522
522
367
42.23%
# Withdrawn
687
875
568
54.05%
Not Sold
1209
1397
935
49.41%
Not Sold %
37%
42%
27%
56.43%
On the Market (houses) as of July 21, 2008:
12,756 = Active Res Listings in Austin MLS (12,466 last month)
10,620 = Total Single Family Homes listed (10,335 last month)
1853 = Condo/Townhome/Loft/Garden Homes listed (1870 last mo.)
283 = Mobile/Manufactured Homes

Below is the year to date breakdown.

Austin Real Estate Market
Update for June YTD 2008
All MLS Areas – YTD Jan-Jun 08

Jan-Jul 08
Jan-Jul 07
Yr % Change
# Sold
12565
12941
-2.91%
Avg List
$262,874
$258,843
1.56%
Med List
$199,500
$189,000
5.56%
Avg Sold
$253,298
$252,189
0.44%
Med Sold
$193,000
$185,000
4.32%
Sold/List %
96.36%
97.43%
-1.10%
Avg SQFT
2137
2116
0.99%
Med SQFT
1945
1920
1.30%
Avg $ SQFT
$119
$119
-0.55%
Avg DOM
64
56
14.29%
Median DOM
not avail
33
*
# Expired
3182
2044
55.68%
# Withdrawn
3476
2617
32.82%
Not Sold
6658
4661
42.84%
Not Sold %
35%
26%
30.80%

Posted by Steve
8 years ago
Steve

Steve is a Real Estate Blogger, Husband and Dad, UT Austin Grad, Runner, Real Estate Broker and owner of Crossland Team and Crossland Real Estate in Austin TX.

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shireen - 8 years ago

Ugh! Yes, I am living the slowdown! We’ll probably keep our house on the market for 5-6 more weeks, then take it off if don’t have a buyer.
We have had people who were very interested who decided to rent at the last moment, buy in a different neighborhood, or whose transfer/job plans fell through. We have one interested party, we are waiting for an offer, I imagine offer will be low although we have lowered our price twice (with a neighboring house stuck with a wishful thinking price). The house is a great value for the quality of the construction, energy costs are very low so if we can’t get a price that would enable us to buy elsewhere, we’ll stay put and keep our low electric bills.
The dominos might all fall into place if the seller of the home we want to buy will match our concessions to our potential buyer but with 13+ months of inventory in our central city area, there is plenty to chose from.

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aaron - 8 years ago

There seems to be a hidden and growing inventory of houses waiting to be sold. These include withdrawn/expired listings and sellers who decided to wait it out before listing their property.

All the predictions of improving market conditions in Austin in 2009 seem to be ignoring this hidden backlog. I would be interested to know if anyone has properly analyzed what the true size of the number of months of inventory is compared with the amounts derived primarily from the MLS.

Reply
Steve - 8 years ago

Hi Shireen,

Hang in there. Make sure you (your agent) get feedback from every showing, when possible.

Aaron,

One would think that the “on the shelf” listings would create an inventory glut later, but as happened when all the failed sales efforts became rental properties in 2002-2004, the upswing in the market also brought plenty of buyer to absorb the new listings. Many of the sellers pulling listings off the market were not in dire need of selling and will simply remain in the property.

Steve

Reply
shireen - 8 years ago

Yes, we always get great feedback on the house — it shows great (it has been decluttered and staged and the landscaping refreshed) I have a good agent and have been reading your blog for a long time, we’ve done all the standard things. But there is a huge overhang of newer infill houses in our area and price range, plus the downtown condos.

Regarding Aaron’s point — I think we are fairly typical, we have worked hard to put our house on the market but we don’t have to sell (no divorce, job change, death, etc). So even if we withdraw the property, we’re not really part of the shadow inventory.

A more interesting stat to track would be number of vacant properties — then no one is benefiting from the property and someone (seller, developer, or flipper) is sustaining carrying costs. A build up of vacant houses (over standard norms) would put pressure on prices

Reply
Steve - 8 years ago

Out of 10,671 active homes listed for sale in the Austin MLS, 4,836 are listed as “vacant”, which is 45% of all listings.

It’s not a stat I normally look at so I’m not sure what to compare the percentage to, or if that’s a “normal” ratio, but it is a lot of vacant homes sitting on the market nonetheless. It would be interesting to see if the vacant ones sell for a lower list price to sales price ratio (indicating a more motivated seller) than the occupied homes. One would think the occupied homes are more likely to be listed by sellers who don’t absolutely have to sell, whereas the vacant homes, as you say, are providing an economic benefit to no one.
Steve

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