Austin Real Estate Market Update for August 2009 Sales

by Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX on September 17, 2009 · 0 comments

Austin Real Estate values for August 2009 are down about 5% from the same month last year. Average sales prices for the 1,657 houses that sold are down 5.12%. Median sold prices are down 4.80%. The number of houses sold is down 15% from August 2008, which is less of a decrease than we’ve seen for most of the past 12+ months.  The sold to list price gap is 96%, which is the same as a year ago and the same as last month. The average list price was $257K and the average sold price $247K, so the average home is selling for about $10K below the final list price. Note that this measures the gap only between the last list price, not the original list price. Unfortunately I have to work harder to obtain the ration of sold to original list price so I don’t calculate it monthly, but my best guess is that it’s probably somewhere between 90% to 92%.

The Days on Market keep climbing, now at 73 days average and 43 days median on market. Even though that’s higher than last year, those are still fairl decent DOM numbers.

The Not Solds (Expired and Withdrawn listings) continue to be fairly high at 45%. This means that of all the listings that departed the MLS in August (no longer Active for Sale), 45% of the listings departed as failed sales efforts. This tells us what we already know, which is that many sellers are not desperate and they refuse to drop their list price below whatever mental threshhold they’ve established, regardless of what the market data says. This in turn is keeping our sold prices reasonably stable but also may be creating a shadow inventory of pent up future listings that will come online in the next 2 or 3 years once seller perceive a better selling environment.

Below is the chart comparing August with the month and year before. Further below is the usual collection of monthly charts and graphs.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update August 2009
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

Jul 2009 Aug 2009 Aug 2008 Yr % Change
# Sold 1972 1657 1948 -14.94%
Avg List $258,562 $256,663 $270,759 -5.21%
Med List $199,900 $197,500 $206,352 -4.29%
Avg Sold $248,984 $247,072 $260,411 -5.12%
Med Sold $195,000 $190,400 $200,000 -4.80%
Sold/List % 96.30% 96.26% 96.18% 0.09%
Avg SQFT 2184 2199 2191 0.37%
Med SQFT 1981 1971 1992 -1.05%
Avg $ SQFT $114.00 $112.36 $118.85 -5.47%
Avg DOM 70 73 64 14.06%
Median DOM 44 43 44 -2.27%
# Expired 476 491 740 -33.65%
# Withdrawn 825 900 876 2.74%
Not Sold 1301 1391 1616 -13.92%
Not Sold % 39.75% 45.64% 45.34% 0.65%



Next is the Year to data chart showing how our Austin real estate market is doing compared to the market at the same point in 2008.

Austin Sales Market YTD Update – Jan-Aug 2009
Homes only (no condos, duplexes, etc) – Data from Austin MLS

Jan-Aug 09 Jan-Aug 08 Yr % Change
# Sold 12146 14688 -17.31%
Avg List $257,012 $263,818 -2.58%
Med List $199,500 $199,900 -0.20%
Avg Sold $245,874 $254,123 -3.25%
Med Sold $192,945 $194,340 -0.72%
Sold/List % 95.67% 96.33% -0.68%
Avg SQFT 2190 2144 2.15%
Med SQFT 1984 1950 1.74%
Avg $ SQFT $112.27 $118.53 -5.28%
Avg DOM 76 65 16.92%
Median DOM 48 42 14.29%
# Expired 3518 4480 -21.47%
# Withdrawn 5535 5256 5.31%
Not Sold 9053 9736 -7.02%
Not Sold % 43% 40% 7.13%



As you can see above, Austin’s average sold price for houses from Jan through Aug 2009 is down 3.25%. The median sold price is down 0.72%. These are good numbers, really. Nothing to complain about here at all. I’m interested to see how things look as the year winds down. Remember it was a year ago that the financial markets nearly collapse, and buyer went home and locked their doors. That really showed up in October sales, which I won’t be able to report for 2 more months, but stay tuned.

Next let’s look at Austin’s August sales broken out by price range.

August 2009 Sales by Price Range
Price Range Number Sold Avg Days on Mkt Active Sept 2009 Months inventory
$149,999 or under 452 57 1634 3.31
$150,000 – $199,999 430 62 1711 3.57
$200,000 – $249,999 231 73 1112 4.02
$250,000 – $299,999 178 90 995 4.70
$300,000 – $349,999 96 87 641 5.69
$350,000 – $399,999 88 99 619 6.56
$400,000 – $449,999 44 87 403 7.33
$450,000 – $499,999 32 97 406 10.88
$500,000 – $549,999 29 108 228 7.60
$550,000 – $599,999 12 147 244 13.07
$600,000 – $699,999 24 82 323 10.31
$700,000 – $799,999 11 136 215 13.72
$800,000 – $899,999 13 76 178 14.83
$900,000 – $999,999 5 105 132 23.29
$1,000,000 or over 12 155 596 31.93


What we see above is that market performance and price range have almost a perfect inverse relationship to one another. Homes priced below $200K have less than a 4 month inventory, which is a seller’s market (unless you are too far from Austin in an area with bad schools). As we get to the $450K/$500K range, to turns to a clear buyer’s market, provided a buyer can find a non-stubborn seller who won’t negotiate (that’s the 45% Not Sold crowd).

Homes in the $300Ks are back to a balanced market, depending, again, on location and the desireablity of the area and whether or not there is too much competing inventory, such as in Steiner Ranch.

Let’s see how the average and median sold prices look on a graph of the past 18 months.

last-18-months-austin-sales

Looking at the graph above, it appears the Austin market is slipping back somewhat. I think we’re going to have a bump for Sep-Nov though as all the first time buyer scramble to beat the $8,000 tax credit deadline. That is if Congress doesn’t step in it by extending it. I think it should be extended, but not until after November 1st otherwise the urgency currently being created by the Nov 30th closing deadline will evaporate and we might actually see a slowdown as buyers decide to wait again.

As usual, comments and questions are welcome. If you’d like to stay on top of Austin Real Estate stats each month, remember to subscribe to the Austin real estate blog so you’ll know when new information has been posted.

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