Austin Real Estate Market Update – Sept 2009 Stats

Austin Real Estate sales values for September 2009 are even (up 0.04%) with the same month last year. The number of homes sold is actually up 0.61% from the same month a year ago, no doubt due to a surge in the lower priced homes caused by the $8,000 home buyer tax rebate. More on that in another article. Let’s take a look at the September chart.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update – Sept 2009
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

Aug 2009 Sep 2009 Sep 2008 Yr % Change
# Sold 1706 1639 1629 0.61%
Avg List $255,966 $257,361 $255,585 0.69%
Med List $195,750 $194,900 $189,900 2.63%
Avg Sold $246,372 $246,185 $246,079 0.04%
Med Sold $190,000 $188,500 $185,000 1.89%
Sold/List % 96.25% 95.66% 96.28% -0.65%
Avg SQFT 2200 2144 2120 1.13%
Med SQFT 1973 1919 1909 0.52%
Avg $ SQFT $111.99 $114.83 $116.08 -1.08%
Avg DOM 72 67 66 1.52%
Median DOM 43 40 48 -16.67%
# Expired 492 529 819 -35.41%
# Withdrawn 897 794 910 -12.75%
Not Sold 1389 1323 1729 -23.48%
Not Sold % 44.88% 44.67% 51.49% -13.25%


Median sold prices are up almost 2%. The sold to list price gap is 95.66%, which is slightly less than the 96.28% a year ago. The “Not Solds” (expired and withdrawn) remain high at 45%, but are down significantly from Sept 2008 when more than half (51%) of all listings departing the Austin MLS were failed sales efforts.

Overall, nothing surprising or unexpected with the Austin market for September. Let’s take a look at the Year to Date stats for Austin.

Austin Sales Market YTD Update – Jan-Sep 2009
Houses only (no condos, duplexes, etc) – Data from Austin MLS

Jan-Sep 09 Jan-Sep 08 Yr % Change
# Sold 13864 16317 -15.03%
Avg List $256,937 $262,996 -2.30%
Med List $199,000 $199,700 -0.35%
Avg Sold $245,815 $253,320 -2.96%
Med Sold $192,000 $193,300 -0.67%
Sold/List % 95.67% 96.32% -0.67%
Avg SQFT 2184 2142 1.96%
Med SQFT 1977 1945 1.65%
Avg $ SQFT $112.55 $118.26 -4.83%
Avg DOM 75 65 15.38%
Median DOM 48 43 11.63%
# Expired 4050 5299 -23.57%
# Withdrawn 6328 6166 2.63%
Not Sold 10378 11465 -9.48%
Not Sold % 43% 41% 3.74%


Austin is still running at just about 3% below the average sales price for the same period the year before. Median sold prices are also down, but by less than 1%. The average price per square foot is down almost 5%, most likley due to the softness with the sales of our larger, more expensive homes. The higher priced homes in Austin, as well as homes located further out, continue to have a harder time than the lower priced homes closer in.

Next, let’s see how home sales were split between price ranges in Austin for September.

Sales Price Range #Sold DOM Active Mo. Inv
$149,999 or under 476 49 1647 3.37
$150,000 to $199,999 422 55 1615 3.52
$200,000 to $249,999 254 74 1119 4.37
$250,000 to $299,999 139 75 920 5.03
$300,000 to $349,999 99 87 597 5.60
$350,000 to $399,999 71 100 576 6.52
$400,000 to $449,999 55 90 392 7.40
$450,000 to $499,999 33 77 359 11.10
$500,000 to $549,999 21 119 193 7.24
$550,000 to $599,999 10 124 214 13.66
$600,000 to $699,999 16 105 308 11.85
$700,000 to $799,999 12 125 201 15.87
$800,000 to $899,999 8 85 174 16.84
$900,000 to $999,999 6 121 124 23.25
$1,000,000 or over 18 141 577 35.33


Six month’s inventory is considered a “balanced market”. A Balanced market is one in which supply and demand are in balance such that neither buyers or sellers have an advantage. Homes priced under $200K are experiencing a strong seller’s market, though the stat is somewhat misleading because there are in fact Austin MLS areas in which homes below $200K are not selling. So just know that this is a macro view and that Austin remains a “market of markets” with different areas and price ranges performing differently.  Read my previous blog on the South Austin market for more detail.

You can also see here that the market for homes price $550K and up is pretty rough. Way more inventory than will be absorbed by current market demand.

Below is a graph of Austin’s real estate market by month for the past 19 months. This is a running chart I’ve been updating for most of the year. It’s valuable because it shows how fluctuations occur month to month but also it shows a general trend.

austin-sales-least-19-months-200909

Finally, Austin’s historic sales market by year going back to 1999.

austin-sales-market-graph-1999-2009

Looking at the graph above is probably best sums up how to view our real estate market in Austin. We had a small peak in 2007 but overall, over time, nothing out of the ordinary is happening in the Austin real estate market when viewed over the past 10 years. Sometimes we become consumed with micro stats and small incremental changes in the market as outlined by the media and others. Real estate should be viewed as a long term investment and I think Austin is still looking really good long term.

Since we’ve completed another quarter, I’ll be adding my YTD stats broken down by MLS area soon. If you want to see what those will look like, check the 2009 mid-year stats. The next set will run through September. Also, if you’d like to stay updated on Austin real estate stats and other Crossland Blog happenings, please subscribe to our blog feed to you’ll know when new stats are posted.

Posted by Steve
6 years ago
Steve

Steve is a Real Estate Blogger, Husband and Dad, UT Austin Grad, Runner, Real Estate Broker and owner of Crossland Team and Crossland Real Estate in Austin TX.

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Johanus Texanus - 6 years ago

Hello Steve. Thank you for the insightful advice about Rancho Alto. I have decided against the neighborhood for reasons of quality upon further inspection (and it seemed too far from necessities). What I have found are some apparently decent neighborhoods of new construction near Slaughter/35 (Estates at Southpark Meadows, Twin Creeks, Parkside at Slaughter) and some older existing homes in Onion Creek. Is this area a good buy for houses 200K-300K? This seems to be untested waters and on the edge town, but is really close to downtown for what I have been able to find for new construction in this price range. For a long-term investor of possibly 10+ years, would this be a safe bet or overpriced? The schools seem okay, but it feels like the right ingredients upon first glance. I am trying to follow your mantra of staying as close to the central core with only as much house as I need, but don’t want to be on the edge of sprawl.

Thank you Steve!

Johan

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