Comments on: A Closer Look at Failed Listings in Austin 1999-2009 http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2010/03/02/a-closer-look-at-failed-listings-in-austin-1999-2009/ Austin Real Estate Blog Tue, 07 Sep 2010 05:12:19 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Steve Crossland http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2010/03/02/a-closer-look-at-failed-listings-in-austin-1999-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-115313 Steve Crossland Mon, 22 Mar 2010 13:45:52 +0000 http://crosslandteam.com/?p=1680#comment-115313 > How many Sellers would have listed in May/June but moved up the time table to try to take advantage of the Tax Rebate? Hi Michael, I don't think the move-up buyers are affected at all by the tax credit, unless by accidental good luck. I don't think $6,500 motivates anyone to both sell and then buy a home. But, as a seller myself, I do think overall the market will be busy in April which is why we have our house on the market now insteaf od waiting untill May. Mainly I think the interest rates will start creeping up and create some late spring/early summer demand. But I can only guess, as we've never had this many external factors affecting off-season demand. Steve > How many Sellers would have listed in May/June but moved up the time table to try to take advantage of the Tax Rebate?

Hi Michael,

I don’t think the move-up buyers are affected at all by the tax credit, unless by accidental good luck. I don’t think $6,500 motivates anyone to both sell and then buy a home.

But, as a seller myself, I do think overall the market will be busy in April which is why we have our house on the market now insteaf od waiting untill May. Mainly I think the interest rates will start creeping up and create some late spring/early summer demand. But I can only guess, as we’ve never had this many external factors affecting off-season demand.

Steve

]]> By: Michael @ The Stage Coach http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2010/03/02/a-closer-look-at-failed-listings-in-austin-1999-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-114473 Michael @ The Stage Coach Sat, 13 Mar 2010 18:39:54 +0000 http://crosslandteam.com/?p=1680#comment-114473 "April 30th is going to be a wonderful day, when government meddling in our real estate market ends, hopefully for good, and the over-motivated buyers leave the market." May 1st will definitely be an interesting day... I didn't take a day off in February. And March has been almost as busy. But the question I continue to raise: How many Sellers would have listed in May/June but moved up the time table to try to take advantage of the Tax Rebate? Is this rush of sellers merely the clients I would have helped later? Or are they new sellers who want to move up and get $6500 credit? Lots of questions... I'm a Cynic at heart - and my heart tells me, don't bank on things continuing the way they are. On the same note, I think it will interesting to see what happens to prices the last two weeks of April. Will sellers drop to get contracted by the deadline? Will buyers run around making low-ball offers? I wouldn't want to be in your shoes next month. Then again... “April 30th is going to be a wonderful day, when government meddling in our real estate market ends, hopefully for good, and the over-motivated buyers leave the market.”

May 1st will definitely be an interesting day… I didn’t take a day off in February. And March has been almost as busy. But the question I continue to raise: How many Sellers would have listed in May/June but moved up the time table to try to take advantage of the Tax Rebate? Is this rush of sellers merely the clients I would have helped later? Or are they new sellers who want to move up and get $6500 credit? Lots of questions… I’m a Cynic at heart – and my heart tells me, don’t bank on things continuing the way they are.

On the same note, I think it will interesting to see what happens to prices the last two weeks of April. Will sellers drop to get contracted by the deadline? Will buyers run around making low-ball offers? I wouldn’t want to be in your shoes next month.

Then again…

]]> By: Steve Crossland http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2010/03/02/a-closer-look-at-failed-listings-in-austin-1999-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-113414 Steve Crossland Thu, 04 Mar 2010 16:11:56 +0000 http://crosslandteam.com/?p=1680#comment-113414 Hi Shireen, your examples sound typical. Hi Jim, <i> How do you calculate how many homes didn’t sell?...These statistics can be very misleading and are hard to track.</i> the Not Sold formula is simple. Expired+Withdrawn = Not Sold. Sold + Not Sold = Total departed listings for the measured time period. We're measuring listings, not homes, so while a home might be represented first as a Not Sold then later as a Sold, that first particular failed listing departed the MLS as a failed sales effort. Whether it succeeded later as a different listing doesn't matter, we just look at the *listings* that departed the MLS at any given time. In a balanced market the percentage (Not Solds divided into Total Departed) of Not Solds will be down in the 30s % range. When it's over 50%, that's a rough market for sellers. Hope that makes sense. Steve Hi Shireen, your examples sound typical.

Hi Jim,

How do you calculate how many homes didn’t sell?…These statistics can be very misleading and are hard to track.

the Not Sold formula is simple.
Expired+Withdrawn = Not Sold.
Sold + Not Sold = Total departed listings for the measured time period.

We’re measuring listings, not homes, so while a home might be represented first as a Not Sold then later as a Sold, that first particular failed listing departed the MLS as a failed sales effort. Whether it succeeded later as a different listing doesn’t matter, we just look at the *listings* that departed the MLS at any given time.

In a balanced market the percentage (Not Solds divided into Total Departed) of Not Solds will be down in the 30s % range. When it’s over 50%, that’s a rough market for sellers.

Hope that makes sense.

Steve

]]> By: Jim http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2010/03/02/a-closer-look-at-failed-listings-in-austin-1999-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-113413 Jim Thu, 04 Mar 2010 15:48:04 +0000 http://crosslandteam.com/?p=1680#comment-113413 How do you calculate how many homes didn't sell? In many cases, an expired listing will reappear the next day at a lower price and eventually will sell. Many listings also stay on the market for a year or more before selling or expiring. They were priced according the market in one year, but contribute to next year's statistics. These statistics can be very misleading and are hard to track. How do you calculate how many homes didn’t sell? In many cases, an expired listing will reappear the next day at a lower price and eventually will sell. Many listings also stay on the market for a year or more before selling or expiring. They were priced according the market in one year, but contribute to next year’s statistics.

These statistics can be very misleading and are hard to track.

]]> By: shireen http://crosslandteam.com/blog/2010/03/02/a-closer-look-at-failed-listings-in-austin-1999-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-113412 shireen Thu, 04 Mar 2010 15:43:27 +0000 http://crosslandteam.com/?p=1680#comment-113412 Yes, it is an odd market. Two neighboring homes are on the market, both over priced by nearly $40K. One was on the market two years ago for nearly a year, never sold at its inflated price, it was leased for a year and is now back on the market, at 10K less than before but still over priced. Another house has been on the market since October, they won't lower the price but are now paying to have home managers/stagers live there. Which is silly because at their price they are not getting any showings. The first house is owned by an agent, the second has an agent that has tried to talk them into a lower price but they won't budge. Now, a third home is coming on the market and it is also agent owned but by a savvier agent, I expect a price much closer to reality and once it sells the low comp is going to shock the other two. Yes, it is an odd market. Two neighboring homes are on the market, both over priced by nearly $40K. One was on the market two years ago for nearly a year, never sold at its inflated price, it was leased for a year and is now back on the market, at 10K less than before but still over priced. Another house has been on the market since October, they won’t lower the price but are now paying to have home managers/stagers live there. Which is silly because at their price they are not getting any showings. The first house is owned by an agent, the second has an agent that has tried to talk them into a lower price but they won’t budge. Now, a third home is coming on the market and it is also agent owned but by a savvier agent, I expect a price much closer to reality and once it sells the low comp is going to shock the other two.

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