Austin Real Estate Market Update – Stats thru June 2012

by Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX on July 22, 2012 · 3 comments

 

The Austin real estate market has found its traction this selling season. Good for sellers, frustrating for buyers. And there hasn’t been any let up. Sylvia and I personally had a record June. July has been extremely busy as well. We’re encountering multiple offers, backups offers, and several listings we’ve sold from “Coming Soon” signs that never made it into the Austin MLS.

That said, we still see that this good market isn’t yet showing up for every home or in every neighboirhood. So, for now, the rising tide is floating most boats, but not all. I’ll have a neighborhood breakdown in a following post.

I have several charts and graphs below that give visual representation to the market. The first is my recurring 1999 look-back graph. I like this one because it puts into context our market for the past 13 years.

Austin Real Estate Sales Graph 1999 thru June 2012

Next is June 2012 compared to June 2011. The left column shows the previous month, for reference. The right colum is color coded, red for downward movement, green for upward movement in the particular market measure. As you can see, everything is green.

Austin Sales Market Update – June 2012
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

May 2012 Jun 2012 Jun 2011 Yr % Change
# Sold 2,292 2,471 1,653 49.49%
Avg List $286,689 $292,507 $283,202 3.29%
Med List $219,900 $224,900 $199,999 12.45%
Avg Sold $278,294 $284,494 $272,111 4.55%
Med Sold $214,950 $218,500 $195,500 11.76%
Sold/List % 97.07% 97.26% 96.08% 1.22%
Avg SQFT 2,263 2,286 2,244 1.87%
Med SQFT 2,078 2,105 2,007 4.88%
Avg $ SQFT $122.98 $124.45 $121.26 2.63%
Avg DOM 59 54 82 -34.15%
Median DOM 28 26 51 -49.02%
# Expired 216 247 317 -22.08%
# Withdrawn 498 491 506 -2.96%
Not Sold 714 738 823 -10.33%
Not Sold % 23.75% 23.00% 33.24% -30.81%

 

The number of homes sold this June is up a whopping 50% from same month last year. Average sold price is up 4.55%, median sold is up almost 12%. Average days on market is below 60 days, and median DOM is below 30 days. Very strong numbers. Expired/Withdrawn listings (Not Solds) are down substantially from June a year ago, dropping from 33% of listings to 23% this year.

The following chart is Year to Date numbers for the first half of 2012 compared to first half 2011.

Austin Sales Market Update – YTD June 2012
Homes only (no condos, duplexes, etc) – Data from Austin MLS

Jan-Jun 12 Jan-Jun 11 Yr % Change
# Sold 10,824 9,232 17.24%
Avg List $277,106 $272,851 1.56%
Med List $214,000 $200,000 7.00%
Avg Sold $268,177 $261,724 2.47%
Med Sold $207,000 $195,323 5.98%
Sold/List % 96.78% 95.92% 0.89%
Avg SQFT 2,243 2,242 0.04%
Med SQFT 2,060 2,036 1.18%
Avg $ SQFT $119.56 $116.74 2.42%
Avg DOM 67 82 -18.29%
Median DOM 35 52 -32.69%
# Expired 1,456 1,989 -26.80%
# Withdrawn 2,559 3,440 -25.61%
Not Sold 4,015 5,429 -26.05%
Not Sold % 27% 37% -26.93%

Year to date 2012, the numbers are strong but less so than the month of June alone.

The number of homes sold this YTD 2012 is up a strong 17% from same month last year. Average sold price is up 2.5%, median sold is up an impressive 7%. Average days on market is 67 days, and median DOM is 35 days. Good numbers. Expired/Withdrawn listings (Not Solds) are down substantially from first half a year ago, dropping from 37% of listings to 27% this year.

Conclusion
If you’re a buyer, reset your expectation and be prepared to compete for a listing if you’re looking in a hot area. Expect to pay more and to accept fewer repair concessions. The good news is your interest rate. 2.75% for a 15 year loan, less than 3.5% for a 30, as of this writing. Those are awesome interest rates, at historic lows. If you do the math, a lower interest rate is worth more, long term, than a lower price.

If you’re a seller… it depends. Most of our listings are doing very well, but some are not. I just listed one in Great Hills 78759 that sold immediately and we have a backup on the way. I have one in East Austin 78702 that never made it into the MLS, sold from the “Coming Soon” sign. One of Sylvia’s listings in Western Oaks 78749 went under contract almost immediately as well, for a price higher then the sales comps suggest.

But I also have the best priced listing in 78704 , a 2/1 for $225K, completely remodeled and awesome. It’s not getting shown, hardly at all. That one’s a head scratcher. Sylvia has a listing in Pflugerville that hasn’t received any showings at all. And our Lake listing on Dry Gulch (uh, Pedernales River) has had 2 showings in 9 months.

So it’s still a spotty market. The biggest mistake we can make as listing agents or sellers is to read too much into the market strength, and overprice a listing. Buyers are not going to over pay for a home. Even the “hot” neighborhoods have homes that, for what ever reason, don’t attract a buyer. There is one down the street from us like that that I think is priced very well (below $400K in Eanes) and it’s still available. It suffers from the “1970s floorplan curse”.

Still, after 3 years of slow market conditions, it’s good to see this level of vitality in the Austin real estate market.

 

{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Chris Dowell July 23, 2012 at 7:23 am

Good to hear the Austin real estate market is heating up. We are seeing similar activity in Kansas City.

2 Robert Grunnah July 24, 2012 at 11:06 am

Quick observation re: your point about 1308 Morgan Ln – as least expensive ’04 option at $225k – not selling.

I was confused too; having a Pin Oak listing that is in the same area, also priced the lowest in ’04, not selling. But now I think I get it .. 900 sq ft is *nothing*; it’s practically impossible to live in a house that size; one’s bed can barely fit in it.

So buyers can go 1500 feet south of Bannister and buy a significantly larger property for $50k less.

That’s why they’re not selling. Yes, it is ’04; but the list of sacrifices we’re asking buyers is so enormously high, they’re not biting.

They may soon, though…

3 Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX July 29, 2012 at 6:03 pm

Chris: Thanks, always good to hear how other markets are doing.

Hi Robert: You may be right. I think once the hard boundary lines form in the hot areas, buyers, at some point, start looking “over yonder”, a bit further, and saying, “hmmm, that seems not too much further and a lot cheaper”.

I remember when Oltorf was that line in the early 1990s, and S. Congress to some degree, as east of S. Congress (Travis Heights) was more desirable than west of S. Congress.

Still, 78704 has become almost a “brand” for which people are in fact willing to pay more. We’ll find our buyer eventually.

Steve

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