With all the news about the alleged fraud committed by Trump University, and how it ripped off unsuspecting victims, I wonder if any modern day journalists know that the Real Estate Investing Seminar industry was around long before Trump. And it remains alive and well today, doing exactly the same thing Trump is accused of. But if all you know is what you read and see on the news, you’d think he was the first and last.
If you listen to local radio while driving around Austin, or watch much TV, you’ve seen and heard the real estate investing seminar ads. At least 2 big Real Estate Investing seminars that I know of have come through Austin this year already, promising that you’ll learn how to become a real estate investor.
I think another one will be here next week. Do a Google search for “real estate investing seminar Austin”, then click on images in the results, and you’ll see something similar to the screen shown here. And you’ll see plenty of paid ads meant to capture your interest and take your money.
Should you attend a real estate investing seminar? Probably not.
I won’t claim that all real estate investment industry education is bogus. In fact, I purchased the Carlton Sheets video tape and workbook series for a few hundred dollars in the early 1990s. I was a sucker too (or was I?). More on that and how it actually helped me in a minute. Read more …
It’s the start of 2016 and already I’ve received a few inquiries from my investor clients wondering whether they should hold on to their rental property, or sell this year. It’s a conversation I have multiple times with multiple clients each year, and it’s a question Sylvia and I sometimes ask ourselves about our own rental property. Especially given the appreciation gains of the past 5 years in Austin. So this article will walk through some of the questions you might ask yourself when contemplating whether to sell your real estate asset, based on how I look at the question with my own rental properties.
The first questions to ask yourself are:
1) Do you need the money? and
2) What will you do with the money?
I normally don’t make it past those two questions, because the answers for me are are “no” and “I don’t know”.
For most, the equity would simply go into almost zero-interest savings or CD accounts, or into the stock market. Having just watched The Big Short, watched my Mutual Fund IRAs tread water last year, and then take a dive the first week of 2016, I’m pretty OK with leaving my real estate alone.
But if you have a defined purpose for the money, such as purchasing your retirement home, or funding a child’s college costs, those reasons can make sense. Using it to fund lifestyle adventures, like buying a boat or an RV, would be a bad idea though, in my opinion. Unless it’s part of an overall “next chapter” of retirement, and it’s time to spend that money. Read more …
About a year ago, Sept 2014, during a violent Austin thunder storm, a rental property I personally own in SW Austin was struck by lightening and caught fire in the attic.
As the thunderous flash of light, noise and immediate smoke jolted the tenant out of bed at 2:30AM, he quickly realized that he was standing in water. The home was flooding, and also on fire, simultaneously.
Wow! Wake up!! His elderly mother was visiting and he was able to get her and his son out quickly as the house filled with smoke. Then he called 911. Then me.
I showed up around 3:15AM, sloshed through about 18 inches of water at my driveway, as about 6 firetrucks were on the scene. It was an apocalyptic scene, like out of a movie. But everyone was ok, and the fire was contained to mostly the attic and three bedrooms. But the home was rendered uninhabitable.
Of course the tenant had to move out, insurance got involved, and a year later I’m just now getting ready to re-rent the home. Insurance only paid 4 months of lost rent, and denied my appeal for more, not accepting my explanations of why the job took longer. So, as it stands, I’m out of pocket 8 months rent ($12K) and about $8K more after insurance deductibles and other snafus that I won’t go into. Plus whatever continued vacancy loss I incur until I place a new tenant. Read more …
What will the real estate market in Austin do for 2015?
Most likely, more of the same. More of what we saw in 2013 and 2014 Spring/Summer selling seasons, which was strong price increases caused by limited supply and increasing demand. Especially in the central core areas of Austin but not limited to just those areas. Even homes in Pflugerville get multiple offers now.
The increasing demand is coming from job growth in Austin, which is showing no signs of abating in 2015. Unemployment in Austin is a low 4%. Simply put, barring a major macroeconomic event that affects our local economy and job growth, our housing market will keep chugging along and prices will continue to rise. Nothing will stop it short term, but it will top out eventually and take a breather. Maybe in 2 or 3 years from now.
The recent drop in oil prices will affect Texas to some small degree, maybe Houston mostly, but represents nothing more than a pothole in the road for Austin currently. If anything, it could free up a bunch of construction labor that fled to the oil fields for higher pay, which would help the new home builders increase volume. New home construction is currently restricted by labor shortage and low availability of build-ready lots, which exasperates the effort to meet demand.
Current, Past and Future Values
The median value of a home in the Austin Metro area is now about $250,000. Average value will probably break $350K this summer. A decade ago median sales price was about $150,000 and the average was $225,000. That’s really only a 5% annual increase roughly, which is what we expect over a decade of time, but so much of it has happened the past few years that it feels like too much too fast.
Also, and of concern, much of the appreciation is concentrated in the central “core” areas of Austin proper, which is no longer affordable to service workers or median income families. I sold a home last summer in 78704 zipcode for $290K which sold for $58K 18 years earlier. That’s bumping a 10% annual appreciation rate over two decades. Same with a home we bought in Westlake in the low $300s in 2010 and sold for $500K in 2014. That’s a 10% annual increase over 4 years.
And wages haven’t kept up, so the median income buyer who wants to live in Austin proper, close in, will continue to be pushed out into the suburbs like Leander where a home at or near $200K is still doable, but where they will have to endure ever worsening and soul crushing commutes on our congested roads.
How Should Austintes feel about this?
The value appreciation of Austin home prices gives me mixed feelings. Read more …
Ever wonder what the “We Buy Houses” signs really mean? You see them all over Austin, usually in middle to lower priced neighborhoods, and older transitional areas with a lot of fixers. Often the signs seems homemade and haphazardly placed. The words “fast” and “cash” are on most. If you were to call this sign, would you really receive an offer to close fast, for cash?
Maybe, but probably not.
The signs, called “bandit signs”, are actually a lead generation tool used by real estate wholesalers and flippers. Some of these guys are actually legitimate real estate investors looking for motivated sellers with dumpy homes who want or need to sell fast. Most of the sign placers are “bird dogs”, who find the motivated sellers then turn the deal over to the investor for a finder’s fee.
Either way, the main goal is to make you an offer and get the home under contract at a price that will produce a profit on either a wholesale resell (selling the contract) or a rehab/flip.
What sort of offer will these guys (or gals) make you?
The formula is fairly universal and straight forward. 70% of market value minus repair costs. Market Value, also known in the business as “After Repair Value” (ARV), is the value of the home if it were in retail sales condition and able to sell to a buyer using a conventional mortgage.
So, let’s say you inherited an old junker in South Austin that would sell for $225,000 in good condition, but it has a bad slab, bad roof, major plumbing problems, severe neglect and multiple trailer loads of junk to haul out of the rat infested back yard. And let’s say it would cost $100K to bring the home up to par, including the investor’s holding time costs, interest, insurance, utilities, risk factors, etc.
That home would be worth (0.70*225,000) – $100,000 = $57,500.
I’m over-simplifying the formula, and there are a lot of other components that go into the “repair costs” part, but this is an accurate “quick and dirty” computation. Also, the terms of the deal will often not be “all cash”, but instead some sort of creative financing. And, these deals are very, very hard to find.
Will this investor make money if he can buy such a house at this price, owner financed? Maybe, maybe not. Many don’t.
Below is the breakout of the Austin real estate market year to date, through June 2012 compared to the same period 2011. The format is as follows, which shows the entire market.
|MLS Area||Year||# Sold||Avg Sold||Med Sold||Avg SQFT||Avg PSF||Avg Days||Med Days|
The color coding at the bottom of each MLS Area summary indicates whether that measure improved or slid back. In the “All Areas” example above, all of the measures improved. That is, # Sold, Avg and Median sales prices, and Avg price per sqft all increased on a market-wide basis, while days on market decreased. Average sqft size is not color coded because I don’t see how a slight change in average size up or down is either good or bad.
A quick summary of some stats results:
Fastest selling: The fastest selling area in the Austin MLS market area is Southwest Austin (MLS Area SWW) which has an average days on market of 29, and a median of 10. Yes, half the homes in SW Austin have sold in 10 days or less so far in 2012. There are a lot of other MLS areas with median days below 20, which you’ll see in the full chart below, but no area is as hot as SW Austin in terms of demand. MLS area SWW includes subdivisions such as Circle C, Legend Oaks, and Villages at Western Oaks.
Highest Price Increases: There are 44 MLS areas shown in the chart below. 12 of those have avg price increases of over 10%. 12 areas (though not the same 12) have median sold price increases over 10% from last year. Most of the highest increases are in closer in areas of Austin proper, though Cedar Park/Leander North (CLN) and Georgetown West (GTW) are in that group, as well as dark horses Manor and Elgin, which have been perennial low performers in the market.
The full chart is below. As usual, questions and comments are welcome.