Austin Real Estate Blog » Investing

Austin 2011 Real Estate Sales Breakdown by MLS Area

Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 04:53:04 +0000

The Austin real estate 2011 sales breakdown by MLS area is below. Most areas of Austin are holding steady. I’ve color coded the results columns of each area to show whether or not that area performed above or below the greater Austin market on whole.

For example, let’s look at MLS area “W” (West Austin).

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
W	2011	285	$475,430	$340,000	2,960	$160.62	84	55
	2010	269	$411,614	$338,500	2,820	$145.96	75	46
	Change	5.95%	15.50%	0.44%	4.96%	10.04%	12.00%	19.57%

This shows are W outperformed the Austin real estate market in some categories, but not in others. Those categories break down as follows:

Number of Sale: The number of sales overall in the Austin market rose by 6.9% in 2011. Number of sales rose by 5.95% in MLS Area W, so it gets flagged a red colow code for under-performing the overall market.

Avg Sold Price, Median Sold Price, and Sold Price per Square Foot all outperformed the market as a whole. Avg and Median Days on Market underperformed as well.

That said, pricing metrics are the most important in determining the direction of the market, so keep that in mind as you review the various areas and how they did in 2011 compared to 2010. Squre footage is not ranked but is shown for referrence and used to calculate sold price per sqft.

The color coding allows you to see in a glance areas that did well, did not do well, and that were mixed. A row of “all red” means the area under-performed on all metrics. Several areas unfortunately did just that.

	Austin Real Estate Sales by MLS Area – YTD Dec 2011
	Houses only. Condos (except DT) , Duplexes, etc not included

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
All Areas	2011	18960	$259,026	$195,000	2,232	$116.05	80	52
	2010	17737	$255,021	$195,000	2,214	$115.19	73	48
	Change	6.90%	1.57%	0.00%	0.81%	0.75%	9.59%	8.33%

MLS Area	YTD-Apr	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
1A	2011	221	$451,143	$420,000	2,631	$171.47	66	38
	2010	188	$478,157	$433,750	2,678	$178.55	63	34
	Change	17.55%	-5.65%	-3.17%	-1.76%	-3.96%	4.76%	11.76%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
1B	2011	330	$720,782	$570,950	2,580	$279.37	80	44
	2010	282	$706,152	$581,000	2,598	$271.81	84	50
	Change	17.02%	2.07%	-1.73%	-0.69%	2.78%	-4.76%	-12.00%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
1N	2011	466	$307,659	$290,250	2,277	$135.12	61	37
	2010	401	$310,750	$292,500	2,284	$136.06	59	36
	Change	16.21%	-0.99%	-0.77%	-0.31%	-0.69%	3.39%	2.78%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
2	2011	366	$253,944	$243,775	1,447	$175.50	58	30
	2010	285	$245,040	$236,000	1,427	$171.72	64	38
	Change	28.42%	3.63%	3.29%	1.40%	2.20%	-9.38%	-21.05%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
2N	2011	212	$143,750	$141,250	1,640	$87.65	73	54
	2010	221	$141,228	$137,000	1,504	$93.90	63	41
	Change	-4.07%	1.79%	3.10%	9.04%	-6.66%	15.87%	31.71%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
3	2011	305	$192,824	$173,000	1,551	$124.32	63	43
	2010	285	$221,184	$192,000	1,561	$141.69	57	37
	Change	7.02%	-12.82%	-9.90%	-0.64%	-12.26%	10.53%	16.22%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
3E	2011	121	$104,795	$85,500	1,485	$70.57	74	56
	2010	100	$122,507	$99,000	1,604	$76.38	70	45
	Change	21.00%	-14.46%	-13.64%	-7.42%	-7.60%	5.71%	24.44%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
4	2011	253	$326,221	$302,000	1,528	$213.50	71	45
	2010	227	$336,331	$310,000	1,549	$217.13	78	51
	Change	11.45%	-3.01%	-2.58%	-1.36%	-1.67%	-8.97%	-11.76%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
5	2011	250	$170,383	$154,000	1,256	$135.66	85	45
	2010	232	$175,926	$162,500	1,249	$140.85	77	51
	Change	7.76%	-3.15%	-5.23%	0.56%	-3.69%	10.39%	-11.76%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
5E	2011	114	$100,020	$97,000	1,566	$63.87	75	58
	2010	105	$106,784	$108,000	1,493	$71.52	62	40
	Change	8.57%	-6.33%	-10.19%	4.89%	-10.70%	20.97%	45.00%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
6	2011	228	$331,486	$299,775	1,520	$218.08	71	51
	2010	212	$370,131	$327,000	1,649	$224.46	78	50
	Change	7.55%	-10.44%	-8.33%	-7.82%	-2.84%	-8.97%	2.00%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
7	2011	110	$433,198	$400,000	1,843	$235.05	70	47
	2010	83	$430,646	$396,700	1,863	$231.16	75	32
	Change	32.53%	0.59%	0.83%	-1.07%	1.68%	-6.67%	46.88%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
8E	2011	245	$897,968	$750,000	3,685	$243.68	79	40
	2010	216	$821,437	$680,000	3,403	$241.39	83	52
	Change	13.43%	9.32%	10.29%	8.29%	0.95%	-4.82%	-23.08%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
8W	2011	236	$723,680	$565,570	3,491	$207.30	84	54
	2010	248	$652,675	$525,000	3,359	$194.31	80	50
	Change	-4.84%	10.88%	7.73%	3.93%	6.69%	5.00%	8.00%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
9	2011	55	$151,275	$140,000	1,587	$95.32	62	48
	2010	58	$143,294	$136,750	1,487	$96.36	70	56
	Change	-5.17%	5.57%	2.38%	6.72%	-1.08%	-11.43%	-14.29%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
10N	2011	266	$187,093	$177,590	1,441	$129.84	58	29
	2010	263	$188,489	$173,000	1,458	$129.28	47	30
	Change	1.14%	-0.74%	2.65%	-1.17%	0.43%	23.40%	-3.33%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
10S	2011	555	$173,394	$169,000	1,651	$105.02	65	41
	2010	510	$177,913	$170,000	1,630	$109.15	51	29
	Change	8.82%	-2.54%	-0.59%	1.29%	-3.78%	27.45%	41.38%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
11	2011	190	$96,375	$92,900	1,431	$67.35	76	56
	2010	172	$109,562	$108,780	1,445	$75.82	53	35
	Change	10.47%	-12.04%	-14.60%	-0.97%	-11.18%	43.40%	60.00%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
BA	2011	274	$155,439	$138,092	1,900	$81.81	88	51
	2010	230	$155,776	$144,250	1,819	$85.64	71	51
	Change	19.13%	-0.22%	-4.27%	4.45%	-4.47%	23.94%	0.00%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
BW	2011	119	$219,498	$187,000	2,392	$91.76	94	57
	2010	99	$177,865	$154,000	2,155	$82.54	93	49
	Change	20.20%	23.41%	21.43%	11.00%	11.18%	1.08%	16.33%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
CLN	2011	957	$176,093	$147,800	2,149	$81.94	68	44
	2010	931	$175,472	$149,895	2,097	$83.68	68	46
	Change	2.79%	0.35%	-1.40%	2.48%	-2.07%	0.00%	-4.35%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
CLS	2011	828	$226,853	$214,750	2,465	$92.03	71	48
	2010	827	$235,403	$214,990	2,468	$95.38	67	48
	Change	0.12%	-3.63%	-0.11%	-0.12%	-3.51%	5.97%	0.00%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
DT	2011	191	$362,808	$310,000	1,097	$330.73	82	49
(condos)	2010	159	$325,388	$275,000	1,108	$293.67	97	65
	Change	20.13%	11.50%	12.73%	-0.99%	12.62%	-15.46%	-24.62%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
EL	2011	163	$119,251	$95,900	1,897	$62.86	79	58
	2010	175	$131,704	$108,000	1,896	$69.46	77	55
	Change	-6.86%	-9.46%	-11.20%	0.05%	-9.50%	2.60%	5.45%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
GTE	2011	250	$157,371	$140,000	1,973	$79.76	98	58
	2010	234	$161,569	$141,495	1,825	$88.53	83	54
	Change	6.84%	-2.60%	-1.06%	8.11%	-9.90%	18.07%	7.41%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
GTW	2011	844	$240,816	$213,850	2,254	$106.84	101	71
	2010	736	$244,471	$209,950	2,249	$108.70	92	67
	Change	14.67%	-1.50%	1.86%	0.22%	-1.71%	9.78%	5.97%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
HD	2011	354	$364,613	$317,728	2,941	$123.98	99	73
	2010	313	$333,876	$318,990	2,877	$116.05	86	62
	Change	13.10%	9.21%	-0.40%	2.22%	6.83%	15.12%	17.74%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
HH	2011	861	$163,345	$145,451	2,008	$81.35	81	55
	2010	828	$166,441	$149,990	2,036	$81.75	66	43
	Change	3.99%	-1.86%	-3.03%	-1.38%	-0.49%	22.73%	27.91%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
HU	2011	446	$135,615	$124,000	1,940	$69.90	76	49
	2010	433	$138,938	$129,593	1,975	$70.35	70	44
	Change	3.00%	-2.39%	-4.32%	-1.77%	-0.63%	8.57%	11.36%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
LN	2011	219	$306,119	$214,000	2,308	$132.63	123	85
	2010	205	$349,550	$240,145	2,329	$150.09	123	81
	Change	6.83%	-12.42%	-10.89%	-0.90%	-11.63%	0.00%	4.94%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
LS	2011	805	$453,868	$369,700	2,992	$151.69	99	68
	2010	764	$439,863	$357,601	3,010	$146.13	100	66
	Change	5.37%	3.18%	3.38%	-0.60%	3.80%	-1.00%	3.03%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
MA	2011	265	$108,919	$90,000	1,768	$61.61	85	56
	2010	234	$114,585	$98,900	1,805	$63.48	59	40
	Change	13.25%	-4.94%	-9.00%	-2.05%	-2.96%	44.07%	40.00%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
N	2011	281	$180,764	$175,000	1,939	$93.23	66	48
	2010	278	$192,695	$192,000	1,919	$100.41	48	35
	Change	1.08%	-6.19%	-8.85%	1.04%	-7.16%	37.50%	37.14%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
NE	2011	255	$136,667	$137,000	1,791	$76.31	79	54
	2010	272	$151,099	$153,500	1,875	$80.59	64	46
	Change	-6.25%	-9.55%	-10.75%	-4.48%	-5.31%	23.44%	17.39%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
NW	2011	613	$250,625	$221,000	2,347	$106.79	57	34
	2010	532	$252,702	$219,000	2,310	$109.39	60	38
	Change	15.23%	-0.82%	0.91%	1.60%	-2.39%	-5.00%	-10.53%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
PF	2011	1044	$156,202	$150,000	2,152	$72.58	75	55
	2010	1043	$161,113	$155,000	2,134	$75.50	67	49
	Change	0.10%	-3.05%	-3.23%	0.84%	-3.86%	11.94%	12.24%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
RN	2011	488	$514,525	$430,000	3,434	$149.83	85	51
	2010	428	$478,944	$405,000	3,395	$141.07	83	55
	Change	14.02%	7.43%	6.17%	1.15%	6.21%	2.41%	-7.27%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
RRE	2011	1078	$179,202	$162,890	2,252	$79.57	75	53
	2010	1034	$186,665	$167,148	2,315	$80.63	70	51
	Change	4.26%	-4.00%	-2.55%	-2.72%	-1.31%	7.14%	3.92%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
RRW	2011	1128	$247,527	$230,875	2,665	$92.88	78	54
	2010	1013	$252,438	$239,200	2,654	$95.12	64	44
	Change	11.35%	-1.95%	-3.48%	0.41%	-2.35%	21.88%	22.73%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
SC	2011	157	$172,388	$151,885	2,096	$82.25	81	52
	2010	156	$175,698	$150,000	2,127	$82.60	73	51
	Change	0.64%	-1.88%	1.26%	-1.46%	-0.43%	10.96%	1.96%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
SE	2011	152	$89,429	$83,950	1,821	$49.11	73	47
	2010	118	$104,121	$103,425	1,827	$56.99	55	27
	Change	28.81%	-14.11%	-18.83%	-0.33%	-13.83%	32.73%	74.07%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
SWE	2011	578	$230,098	$213,000	2,244	$102.54	73	51
	2010	567	$238,199	$219,887	2,196	$108.47	64	46
	Change	1.94%	-3.40%	-3.13%	2.19%	-5.47%	14.06%	10.87%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
SWW	2011	571	$301,666	$278,500	2,576	$117.11	50	26
	2010	531	$295,631	$280,000	2,561	$115.44	52	31
	Change	7.53%	2.04%	-0.54%	0.59%	1.45%	-3.85%	-16.13%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
UT	2011	40	$420,993	$409,000	1,833	$229.67	55	41
	2010	34	$419,009	$379,500	1,859	$225.39	61	46
	Change	17.65%	0.47%	7.77%	-1.40%	1.90%	-9.84%	-10.87%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
W	2011	285	$475,430	$340,000	2,960	$160.62	84	55
	2010	269	$411,614	$338,500	2,820	$145.96	75	46
	Change	5.95%	15.50%	0.44%	4.96%	10.04%	12.00%	19.57%

MLS Area 8E (Westlake), RN (Steiner) and DT (Downtown Condos) were the only three areas to earn green stripes all the way across. (Note: Downtown is the only area we report Condos. All other areas are houses only).

Areas HH (Kyle/Buda), N, NE (North and Northeast Austin), PF (Plugerville) and SWE (Deep South Austin) all Redlined across all metrics. Many other were mostly red save for the number of units sold.

If you’re not familiar with Austin MLS area, see the map below.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – Dec 2011 End of Year Stats

Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 19:27:29 +0000

The Austin real estate market did about what we expected in 2011, which wasn’t much. Basically treading water with some slight improvements, but nothing that represents a notable shift in market activity. Instead, it looks like momentum is building for a breakout year of increased activity and rising prices either in 2012 or 2013.

Let’s start with a look back at the past 12 years for some context.

From 1999 to 2001, you see the effects of the Tech Bubble, as Austin experienced strong job growth, which in turn drives housing demand. From 2002 through 2004 (and most of 2005, though not obvious from the graph), Austin housing prices were flat, as we suffered the hangover of lost jobs after the Tech Bubble bust. Then in 2005 jobs returned as well as a lot of real estate investors who felt that other areas such as Phoenix, Las Vegas, Boise, Florida, etc. (which we now know were in a severe bubble) were playing out. So we had a mini burst of strong buyer demand through about the middle of 2007. After dipping in 2008, prices have slowly climbed since then, though many homes still sell for 2007 prices. By 2010, overall values were back to 2007 prices and have now surpasses the 2007 high. That’s the Austin real estate market in a nutshell, for the past 12 years.

Let’s look at the gains in 2011 compared to 2010.

Austin Sales Market Update – Dec 2012 End of Year
Homes only (no condos, duplexes, etc) – Data from Austin MLS
	Jan-Dec 11	Jan-Dec 10	Yr % Change
# Sold	18,920	17,737	6.67%
Avg List	$269,923	$266,166	1.41%
Med List	$199,900	$199,900	0.00%
Avg Sold	$259,152	$255,021	1.62%
Med Sold	$195,000	$195,000	0.00%
Sold/List %	96.01%	95.81%	0.21%
Avg SQFT	2232	2214	0.81%
Med SQFT	2023	2019	0.20%
Avg $ SQFT	$116.11	$115.19	0.80%
Avg DOM	80	73	9.59%
Median DOM	52	48	8.33%
# Expired	4,678	6,297	-25.71%
# Withdrawn	7,827	9,894	-20.89%
Not Sold	12505	16191	-22.77%
Not Sold %	40%	48%	-16.61%

The number of homes sold increased by 6.67% in 2011 compared to 2010. That’s a fairly solid increase. At the same time, the number of “failed sales” (expired and withdrawn) listings fell from 48% in 2010 to 40% in 2011, meaning more sellers were successful in eventually selling their homes. In 2010 almost half of all MLS listings failed to sell. For 2011 it dropped to 40%. Days on market increased, which ties into the lower failure rate as sellers allowed their listings more time to sell instead of giving up. All the other stats, as you can see above, showed only slight movements. Prices are up 1.6%, not enough to get excited about, but moving in the right direction if you’re a “waiting” seller.

I’ll be working on a breakdown area by area later this month to see if there are notable trends in “hot” or “not hot” areas. I suspect there are, but not to the degree that one might imagine. As usual, comments and questions are welcome.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – October 2011 Stats

Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 03:29:57 +0000

Below are the Austin housing market stats for October 2011 and year to date.

Austin Sales Market Update – October 2011
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	Sep 2011	Oct 2011	Oct 2010	Yr % Change
# Sold	1601	1346	1202	11.98%
Avg List	$262,989	$267,793	$278,846	-3.96%
Med List	$197,999	$199,900	$206,500	-3.20%
Avg Sold	$252,815	$257,957	$264,112	-2.33%
Med Sold	$192,000	$192,650	$199,925	-3.64%
Sold/List %	96.13%	96.33%	94.72%	1.70%
Avg SQFT	2226	2228	2276	-2.11%
Med SQFT	2044	1992	2058	-3.21%
Avg $ SQFT	$113.57	$115.78	$116.04	-0.23%
Avg DOM	76	78	87	-10.34%
Median DOM	52	55	67	-17.91%
# Expired	478	434	704	-38.35%
# Withdrawn	800	703	976	-27.97%
Not Sold	1278	1137	1680	-32.32%
Not Sold %	44.39%	45.79%	58.29%	-21.45%

As shown above, average and median sold prices are down 2.3% and 3.6% for Oct 2011 compared to Oct 2010. The number of homes sold increased and the number of failed sales efforts (Withdrawn or Expired) decreased. The sold to list price ratio increased a bit and the Days on Market improved.

Nothing really suprising or new here. The Austin real etstae market is still moving along somewhat, treading water for the most part. See the Year to Date and 44 month graphs below.

Year to date stats through Oct 2011 look more promising, from a color-code standpoint, but the movements are small.

Austin Sales Market Update – October 2011
Homes only (no condos, duplexes, etc) – Data from Austin MLS
	Jan-Oct 11	Jan-Oct 10	Yr % Change
# Sold	16,054	15,100	6.32%
Avg List	$271,683	$266,959	1.77%
Med List	$200,000	$199,900	0.05%
Avg Sold	$260,877	$256,007	1.90%
Med Sold	$195,538	$195,000	0.28%
Sold/List %	96.02%	95.90%	0.13%
Avg SQFT	2,238	2,214	1.08%
Med SQFT	2,028	2,020	0.40%
Avg $ SQFT	$116.57	$115.63	0.81%
Avg DOM	79	70	12.86%
Median DOM	51	45	13.33%
# Expired	3,641	4,830	-24.62%
# Withdrawn	6,524	8,129	-19.74%
Not Sold	10,165	12,959	-21.56%
Not Sold %	39%	46%	-16.06%

Below is a “past months” chart I started a few years ago. I paiants a pretty good graphical picture of the Austin real estate market price movements the past 44 months. Pretty boring except for that one blip there in summer 2010 which quickly subsided.

Monthy Avg and Median Sold prices for Austin Homes

You can sort of see on the chart above that average prices want to increase, but really just haven’t more than a slight amount. This is over a 44 month period, almost 4 years. Still, many real estate markets in the US have done much worse over the same time period, so we’re not complaining.

We have job growth in Austin. We have good interest rates. But we also have a lot of financial uncertainty nationally and internationally, and an upcoming election. Investors are out there, just not that many. Many investors can’t get loans. Buyers seem content to wait, though we’re still closing deals each month.

I feel like there is pent up demand in the Austin market that is going to explode at some point. Our leasing market is very strong with very qualified renters who could actually buy, but are renting first.

Questions and Comments welcome.

Austin Real Estate Investing Not Always Profitable

Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 14:55:33 +0000

Sylvia and I just sold a couple of acreage lots that we purchased in Oak Hill back in Feb 2007. For those who remember, Austin’s real estate market was still running full tilt in early 2007. I bought three lots in a new subdivision, we built a new custom home on one of them and moved in, and held the other two for investment.

The Original Plan - what was suppose to happen
We bought the lots directly from the developer for around $85K and $90K each. I figured they would be worth $150K or more within the following year or two. The house we built, which we really didn’t need but which I though would be a good investment, cost about $475K to build turnkey, including lot purchase. It appraised for $610K when we closed the loan, which I thought was a bit high, but nevertheless I figured the value would appreciate to over $700K within two 2 years. We’d sell it, take the tax free capital gains, and buy again in Westlake near the high school.

I think of this strategy as “laddering up”, whereby each successive home purchase/build and move-up results in tax free income and an increase in net worth. Others I know have done this with “slow flips”, buying fixers and staying the required 2 years while renovating, then capturing the tax free capital gain and reinvesting into the next home. Over time, this is a powerful formula.

On paper, this all made sense. The home we’d lived in prior and sold to build this one was built in 2003 on another lot we’d owned since 1999, and it had appreciated nicely. Because of our convoluted tax system, there was a sizeable capital gain profit to be taken tax free on the sale of that one. Those proceeds were dumped into the new one to start a new two-year clock ticking. Any home you sell that you’ve owner-occupied for at least 2 of the past 5 years is not subject to capital gains tax upon sale, so in an appreciating Austin real estate market, moving often can actually be a wealth building strategy and a way to earn tax free capital gains.

What Actually Happened
The plan didn’t work out as expected.

The instant equity we had upon completion of the home vanished in Austin’s real estate downturn. We sold the house for slightly more than we paid to build it, but that wasn’t the plan. The lots did not go up in value either. After holding them for 4.5 years at a cost of about $8,400/yr each (interest and property taxes) we sold them for slightly more than we paid.

Everything I predicted will eventiually happen with regard to values, but over a 7-10 year timeframe instead of 2. Basically, as I look back on all of our real estate investing in Austin since the 1994 when we purchased our first rental property, that house and those lots rank up there near the top with real estate investments that lost money instead of making money.

Why I’m Not Upset
If you want to be a real estate investor in Austin, or more specifically, if you want to use real estate as a wealth building vehicle, you have to be on the field playing. That means taking risks in search of rewards. In hindsight, are there real estate investments I wish we would have avoided? Of course. But there are even more that did work out, some exceptionally well. Sometimes you hit a Grand Slam, other times you strike out. Meanwhile the singles and doubles keep things moving along. Over time, especially over decades of time, it all pans out in the end. So I’m not upset or worried about this hiccup at all.

But What About Small Investors Doing Just One Deal
This is what scares me. One investor doing one real estate investment one time that doesn’t work out. The real estate investing landscape all across the U.S. is littered with these investors who got in during the bubble, many using their home equity as down payment, and watched their real estate investments crater. Some hung on and still own those properties. Others went into foreclosure or short sales. Most are permanently wounded psychologically, having gone though difficult financial stretches trying to hang on. They never should have invested in the first place because they were not financially prepared to do so. Most will never buy real estate as an investment again.

Which is good news to the rest of us. Thank goodness the Amateur Decade of real estate investing is over. Renting has come back into favor, which benefits those of us holding long-term rental investments. Loans are no longer being given to unqualified borrowers. People are now more aware and skeptical of “get rich quick” real estate programs and flip shows on TV. Ironically, since I sold my two lots each for more than I paid, a cable TV show on real estate investing would call that a “profit”, albeit a small one. Hopefully people are smarter than that now, and understand that there are “silent” carrying costs that these shows ignore in favor of the sexier gross numbers they show on the recap.

Meanwhile, Austin’s market is coming back. I sold my lots at the dip. Had I kept holding another 3 years, the values would have increased substantially. But sometimes you just cut your losses and move on.

Austin Real Estate Market – Year 2010 Summary and 2011 Predictions

Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX — Sun, 06 Feb 2011 20:05:22 +0000

The Austin real estate market finished 2010 with increased overall sales prices. The market is roughly a bit higher than the peak 2007 values. See the graph below for an illustration of Austin home sales values from 1999 through 2010.

The graph can be deceiving though. It simply represents the cumulative data from all MLS sales. Certainly, most homes in Austin are at or still below the 2007 values. Some are significantly below the 2007 values, especially in the high end at $500K and above. For the entire year of 2010, 48% of all MLS listings departed the MLS as a failed sales effort (expired or withdrawn). Anytime half the listings are not finding buyers, it’s a tough market for sellers overall.

On the flip side, 2010 was not exactly a “buyer’s market” in Austin. There was little to no “low hanging fruit” to be plucked from the market. Sellers were, for the most part, not crying Uncle and were not dropping prices drastically. Yes, we have anecdotal examples of some good deals that were had by some buyers, but most buyers were simply frustrated at the difference between the perceived “buyer’s market” and the actual reality of trying to find a great home at a great price.

The only winners in 2010 were the sellers who were fortunate enough to sell quickly at an acceptable price, and the buyers who allowed for themselves enough flexibility and patience to eventually find the right combination of motivated seller and acceptable home. It was not a good year for picky buyers with narrow parameters, as they kept running into stubborn sellers unwilling to negotiate to the degree buyers thought warranted by market conditions.

Year 2011 will be more of the same in the Austin real estate market, but volume will pick up and I believe sellers will start enjoying a slightly better market. 2012 is the year that things will really bust loose again, in my opinion, but we’ll see. 2011 may have a surprise upswing in store if job growth continues to pick up in Austin. More market stats below.

The following graph illustrates the ups and downs in market prices over the past 35 months in Austin.

Austin sales market trailing 34 months.

The graph above is a month by month picture of medain and average sold values in Austin. As you can see, the market swings up and down quite a bit, but for the most part, remains within a range close to $250K for average sold price and $190K for median price. Both median and average sold prices ended the 35 month period not far from where they started on the graph. The market started trying to bust out of that range about 7 months ago (following the end of the tax credit sales, and thus an artificial bump in sold values) but has settled back in to the range. When we start to see a stead, sustained climb, we’ll know that prices are heading up again for good.

Below is the 2010/2011 comparison chart in table format. The green fields represent “improvements” in market values ad activity, the red fields show movement in a direction that would favor buyers. As you can see, 2010 looked better for sellers than it did for buyers, the high numbers of expired and withdrawn not withstanding. In other words, buyers who’ve decided to sit out the market the past couple of years waiting for values to plunge have not seen that happen.

Austin Sales Market Update – End of Year 2010
Homes only (no condos, duplexes, etc) – Data from Austin MLS
	Jan-Dec 10	Jan-Dec 09	Yr % Change
# Sold	17,676	18,636	-5.15%
Avg List	$266,160	$256,849	3.63%
Med List	$199,900	$196,494	1.73%
Avg Sold	$255,070	$245,765	3.79%
Med Sold	$195,000	$190,000	2.63%
Sold/List %	95.83%	95.68%	0.16%
Avg SQFT	2,213	2,177	1.65%
Med SQFT	2,018	1,971	2.38%
Avg $ SQFT	$115.26	$112.89	2.10%
Avg DOM	73	75	-2.67%
Median DOM	48	47	2.13%
# Expired	6,283	5,920	6.13%
# Withdrawn	9,904	8,600	15.16%
Not Sold	16,187	14,520	11.48%
Not Sold %	47.80%	43.79%	9.15%

As you can see above, the ups and downs are fairly moderate. And it was such a weird year due to the economy and the tax credit sales that it’s harder to place real meaning on the numbers than it would be in a completely normal market operating with fewer external factors. As usual, comments, observations and opinions are welcome. I’ll be working on the breakdown by specific areas next week and we’ll see if there were any clear winners or losers from a geographic standpoint.

Is Some Austin Real Estate Worth Zero? Yes.

Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX — Tue, 07 Dec 2010 02:18:52 +0000

I previewed some real estate listings today that I wouldn’t own for free. These were condos in SE Austin priced in the $30Ks range. I’ve seen these listings online and I know the area, but curiosity finally got the best of me so I went and had a look to see just how bad a listing has to be to be priced in the $30Ks.

I don’t like condos in the first place. Yes, condos have their place in the spectrum of real estate product, but I don’t like owning or managing units with shared walls. I’m especially averse to not having control over water leaks from above or the sides. If a tenant calls and reports a leak coming from the ceiling in a single family home, I make 1 phone call to my roofer or HVAC guy, depending on the type of leak, and the problem is solved.

With a condo leak, I have to deal with the HOA and/or find out who owns the unit above and hope they make the proper and permanent fix to the problem. I don’t like that scenario because my action choices don’t have defined outcomes. I have to rely on someone else to cooperate in a competent way. There are also the issues and disputes with neighbors over parking and noise, neither of which come about with houses.

Nonetheless, how bad could it be that I would say “no thanks” even if (hypothetically) someone offered one of these condo units to me for a purchase price of zero? One word. Exposure. Exposure to risk. I don’t like certain types of risk.

Rather, I should say, I don’t like exposure to unpredictable risks associated with variables I can’t influence or control. I don’t like the sort of risk associated with owning a condo unit in a complex with obvious, visible and chronic problems with the foundations, siding, balconies, sidewalks and overall general condition. Such was what I observed at this complex. No thanks.

Upon arriving at the first unit, I noticed that the bottom of one side of the base of the stairway doesn’t even touch the ground – until you stand on the bottom step – because the sidewalk has settled and fallen away. Yikes! Also, the iron handrail to the stairs was rusted and broken off at the bottom step and just flopping when grabbed. Double Yikes! Ascending the steps revealed them to be slightly wobbly and “jellowie” (for lack of a better term). They had the wavey sort of shimmer you feel when walking up steps that don’t have proper lateral support, so they bounce and sway slightly, like walking on a stairway made of jello. Imagine hauling a heavy couch up this set of steps? Dude, you better have the emergency room address pre-programmed into your GPS.

The interior cosmetic appearance of the unit itself was ok, like lipstick on a pig. The entry door jamb was so far out of plumb I had to put a shoulder to the door to shove it open, and pull it shut with a hard slam when I left. The balcony seemed as unstable as the stairs, and when I opened the attic access and looked inside, there were no firewalls separating units, meaning I could have crawled through the attic and gone into another unit through it’s attic access. (Hello, just came over to borrow some milk). I don’t want to own a unit with this sort of security issue. Also, the insulation was falling and missing in most of the areas, further illustrating the degree of deferred maintenance present in the building.

In short, this mid-1980s set of structures is a disaster from stem to stern. That means that eventually there could and probably will have to be special assessments to the condo fee to cure chronic issues of safety and structural soundness. That’s the exposure any prudent investor should walk away from at any price.

Of yeah, there were mostly older model cars in the parking lot, young men loitering around the parking lot entrance, and mattresses and trash piled near the dumpsters. Through in a swimming pool along with its liabilities and expenses, and the entire proposition of owning one of these puppies is just a non-starter in the biggest sort of way. Really. I didn’t even go inside the other 2 units for which I had printed MLS listing info. I wouldn’t touch these units with a 10 foot pole.

Sometimes, the expected ongoing costs and risks of owning investment real estate are so heavy and/or unpredictable that the purchase price really doesn’t matter. Some risk should not be assumed at any price, not even zero.

Older 25+ year old condos in Austin Texas are, for the most part, very poorly constructed, hard to rent and difficult to maintain for the HOAs that are brave enough to attempt HOA management duties. Some were built as apartments and later converted. Many of these complexes, this one included, are not FHA approved, meaning it’s very difficult for a potential buyer to get a loan, making an investor’s exit from the property much more difficult than from a bread-and-butter 3 bedroom home in a plain vanilla subdivision.

Many of these ill-advised investment decisions were made made by California ~~idiots~~ “investors” chasing what appeared to be better cash flow and a cheap, low cost investment. I’ve preached the hazards of buying “spreadsheet result” properties for many years, and this is another prime example.

In this particular complex, almost 40% are owned by Californians. Of those with deed dates 2005 or later, over 50% are Californians. Of the 87 listings in this condo complex that have entered and departed the Austin MLS since 2007, 11 have successfully sold and 76 have expired or been withdrawn. That’s an 87% failure rate for sales attempts. Work that into your exit strategy, right next to the “on paper” positive cash flow. I want to call these type of investors and ask “how’s that better cash flow working for you?”

So, would I take one of these condo units off an investor’s hands for free? No thanks. Should you pay $30K for one? No way. Don’t do it.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – Aug 2010 Stats

Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 16:36:05 +0000

The average year-to-date sold price for homes in Austin is $256K, which just broke through the (peak) year 2007 YTD of $255K.

Now, there is a lot of discussion and caveats that must be considered along with this milestone statistic, but nevertheless, look at the graph below for a visual representation of where average and median home prices in Austin stand right now relative to past years. Further down you’ll find additional monthly and YTD stats and an overview of what Sylvia and I are seeing in the real estate market in Austin as we continue to wheeze through the tax credit hangover and head into the fall/winter months .

Looking at the above graph, one might assume that home prices are rising in Austin. Actually, what’s happening more specifically is that fewer lower priced homes are selling than before, as a percentage of all homes sold. This is dragging the average and medians upward. Nevertheless, the graph remains what it is and to the casual observer, newspaper reporter, or market cheerleaders, this will be fodder for the simple utterance that “prices are rising in Austin”. The real question is, is your particular home worth more today than is was at the peak in 2007?, and the answer is “probably not”, unless it’s a sub $200K home. The graph is really a reflection of segment and price range shifts.

Below is the chart for August sales, YTD sales, a Pending Sales analysis, and some other stuff that I hope you’ll find interesting and useful.

Austin Sales Market Monthly Update – August 2010
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	Jul 2010	Aug 2010	Aug 2009	Yr % Change
# Sold	1451	1386	1736	-20.16%
Avg List	$302,120	$283,310	$255,966	10.68%
Med List	$230,000	$212,250	$195,750	8.43%
Avg Sold	$288,920	$271,217	$246,349	10.09%
Med Sold	$224,000	$203,000	$190,000	6.84%
Sold/List %	95.63%	95.73%	96.24%	-0.53%
Avg SQFT	2353	2282	2201	3.68%
Med SQFT	2161	2066	1975	4.61%
Avg $ SQFT	$122.79	$118.85	$111.93	6.19%
Avg DOM	69	72	72	0.00%
Median DOM	48	53	43	23.26%
# Expired	490	609	492	23.78%
# Withdrawn	987	1172	897	30.66%
Not Sold	1477	1781	1389	28.22%
Not Sold %	50.44%	56.24%	44.45%	26.52%

Number of sales are down 20% compared to Aug 2009, but, because of a shift in price range segments (see more on that below) average sold price is up to an incredible $270K and the median for Aug 2010 was $203. Homes in Austin in August sold for about 96% of the final list price, median square footage size of the avg home sold in Austin increased 4.6% to 2,066 sqft. Days on market looks stable, even good all things considered.

But take note of the increase in Not Solds, well above 50% now for Aug. This represents sellers who gave up. These were unsuccessful sales efforts. So, more than half the listings (56%) departing the Austin MLS in Aug 2010 left as a “Not Sold” (Expired or Withdrawn). A year ago the percentage was 44%. In a solid seller’s market, the percentage would be in the mid 20s or low 30s.

Bottom line, there is still not enough absorption of inventory to satisfy all sellers, but those who do sell seem to be fairing moderately well both in terms of days on market and percentage of final list price.

Below is the Year to Date stats chart for Austin comparing 2010 to the same Jan-Aug period in 2009.

Austin Real Estate Sales YTD – Jan-Aug 2009/2010
Homes only (no condos, duplexes, etc) – Data from Austin MLS
	Jan-Aug 10	Jan-Aug 09	Yr % Change
# Sold	12,514	12,274	1.96%
Avg List	$266,599	$256,802	3.82%
Med List	$199,900	$199,500	0.20%
Avg Sold	$256,099	$245,662	4.25%
Med Sold	$195,000	$192,945	1.07%
Sold/List %	96.06%	95.66%	0.42%
Avg SQFT	2207	2190	0.78%
Med SQFT	2017	1985	1.61%
Avg $ SQFT	$116.04	$112.17	3.45%
Avg DOM	68	76	-10.53%
Median DOM	41	49	-16.33%
# Expired	3424	3527	-2.92%
# Withdrawn	6124	5531	10.72%
Not Sold	9548	9058	5.41%
Not Sold %	43.28%	42.46%	1.92%

In the year to date stats we see a bit of smoothing of the tax credit effect as this chart reflects both the surge and the dip in the 2010 market that the tax credit incentive caused. From a YTD standpoint, average sold price is up 4% and the median is up 1%. Again, this doesn’t mean that your individual home value is in line with the above figures, but it does give us a sense of the overall market, artificial market forces notwithstanding.

Note also on the YTD stats that the “Not Solds” are more in line with last year’s. If the Expired/Withdrawn listings remain above 50% for the remained of 2010, we’ll see this YTD number increase though.

Next we have the Sales by Price Range Chart. I’ve added two additional columns so we can verify the assumption that the increase in average/median home sale prices is a result of fewer lower priced home sales. Let’s have a look and see if that hold true.

Price Range	#Sold	DOM	Active	Mo. Inv	% Sold 2010	% Sold 2009
$149,999 or under	399	62	2,483	5.88	28.79%	27.28%
$150,000 – $199,999	277	75	2,259	7.11	19.99%	25.95%
$200,000 – $249,999	185	64	1,374	6.30	13.35%	13.94%
$250,000 – $299,999	127	68	1,089	6.98	9.16%	10.74%
$300,000 – $349,999	107	83	676	5.44	7.72%	5.79%
$350,000 – $399,999	72	73	662	7.38	5.19%	5.31%
$400,000 – $449,999	45	76	377	6.32	3.25%	2.66%
$450,000 – $499,999	37	64	391	9.38	2.67%	1.93%
$500,000 – $549,999	26	80	197	7.30	1.88%	1.75%
$550,000 – $599,999	22	63	262	10.08	1.59%	0.72%
$600,000 – $699,999	28	120	277	7.91	2.02%	1.45%
$700,000 – $799,999	23	132	187	7.48	1.66%	0.66%
$800,000 – $899,999	7	98	164	16.40	0.51%	0.78%
$900,000 – $999,999	9	39	129	12.90	0.65%	0.30%
$1,000,000 or over	22	135	588	20.51	1.59%	0.72%

I’m not that good at math, but what I see in the two right hand columns above tells me that the spike in average/median sales prices are NOT a result of low price range buyers going away, but rather the return of higher price range buyers. I knew that the increase in higher priced sales was a factor, but it seems to me now to be the main factor.

Starting at the $300K row, ever price range is showing an increase in the number of sales as a percentage of total sales over Aug 2009. At the $1M and above range, the percentage has increased from 0.72% a year ago to 1.59% this year. When the percentage of $1M+ priced homes more than doubles, and it’s being measured against a smaller smaple size (20% drop in number of homes sold), the higher sold prices have a dramatic effect on the overall averages.

True, the percentage of total sales below $300K dropped from 78% in 2009 to 71% in 2010. But the real movement in the averages is caused by the increase in higher value homes, $300K+, from 22% in 2009 to 29% in 2010.

Why the surge in upper end activity? Two reasons, I think. First, the buyers able to qualify at higher sales prices might be more motivated by and able to take advantage of record low interest rates. Secondly, the higher end homes are exceptionally valued compared to 2007 prices, having fallen in many cases $100K or more, and thus, for many buyers in that range, this seems like a good time to go ahead and move up. The discount given on the $400K home to overcome the sluggish market is much less than the discount received on the more expensive home. Couple that with the obtaining of a much lower interest rate, and a well qualified move-up buyer will conclude that it makes a lot of sense financially to do something new.

One final note on the chart above, this chart is really an “inventory level” chart. It tells us whether the market has excess inventory based on current absorption rates. A balanced market has about 6 or 7 month’s inventory, more for the higher price ranges. At present, the Austin market seems to have solid housing inventory levels, neither too much or too little. Of course, tell that to the 56% of sellers who gave up, but those listings have already been removed from the equation. As owners continue to give up, and new listings slow during fall/winter, inventory will stay in balance unless sales pick up.

A couple of additional graphs to wrap things up. First the Monthly sales graph showing the fluctuations in sales values over the past 30 months, and the pattern of sold prices.

Not much to say about this. There’s the spike in values the last couple of months. We’ll see if that holds into the next few months as the market tries to rebalance and return to “normal”.

Finally, the Pending Listings graph. Note the green line representing 2010. We can assume based on the low number of listings that went Pending in August, that the number sold for Sept is going to remain very low compared to recent historic norms. What will be more interesting to see in coming months is whether the trajectory of the green line joins up with the historic lines at the end of the year, possibly marking the return to normal sales volumes to start Jan 2011. If not, if the green line remains well below the others, we’re going to be seeing the lowest sales volume in Austin in more than a decade.

As usual, comments and questions are welcome.

Is Rental Property Investing in Austin Still Profitable?

Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX — Sun, 30 May 2010 22:04:13 +0000

As someone who’s bought and sold a bunch of rentals, and helped other investors buy, sell and manage investment property in Austin for a number of years, I’m about to ask a question that might seem counter to my professional mission of being in service to real estate investors.

Is rental property investing in Austin still a good way to build long term wealth?

My answer, for a lot of people, is “probably not”.

Let me rephrase the question.

Is rental property investing in Austin a good way to lose money and create financial stress in one’s life?

Absolutely. More so than ever.

So, am I saying you shouldn’t invest in real estate in Austin, or elsewhere? No, I think everyone should consider doing so. But I do think, after careful consideration, a much higher percentage of people should decide against it than would have been the case 15 years ago. The opportunity for mistakes, bad decisions and cash flow disruption for the real estate investor today is much greater than in past years.

In other words, your margin of error is very thin. You better know what you’re doing, or have a good adviser. Success is harder to achieve than if you started in the 1980s or 1990s simply because today’s ratios are thinner. The financial and psychological profile of a good candidate real estate investor today has a much higher bar to clear than in years past. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Positive Cash Flow Harder to Achieve
The very first rental property Sylvia and I bought in Austin was a 959 sqft, 2 bedroom house on Avenue G in Hyde Park. We paid $58K. Then we immediately spent $7K to redo the kitchen and bath and rented it out for $825/mo, which provided $300/mo positive cash flow. This was in 1994.

18 months later we sold that home for $95K. We took the equity proceeds and bought another fixer-upper house for $60K in South Austin 78704, which we completely rehabbed and sold 4 months later for $129K.

We then took the proceeds from that sale and bought another home in South Austin 78745, and so on. We continued to “ladder up” as years passed, buying, selling, keeping homes. Making some mistakes but hitting more home runs than strikeouts. Such were the opportunities. Success was not dependent on bubble appreciation or low probability luck.

In 1999 I sold one of our investment properties in South Austin 78745, which I like to use as an example when discussing the erosion of our rent/value ratios over the past decade. At that time, the home was rented for $950/mo and it sold for $92,500.That means an investor could buy a home like that with 20% down payment on a 15 year loan at 6.5% interest and, because taxes and insurance were lower relative to rent value back then, have a total PITI payment of about $850/mo. on a house that rents for $950/mo.

That same 1400 sqft brick home in Cherry Creek would sell today for about $170K but would only rent for about $1195. In 1999, it took about 2.5 month’s rent to pay the annual taxes and insurance. Today it would take 3.8 month’s rent. That’s over a month’s rent each year, down the drain in higher taxes/insurance.

Appreciation Potential
In the old days, we didn’t worry so much about appreciation potential. It wasn’t ignored, but it wasn’t a “must have” to make the numbers work. After all, the property was paying for itself and would be free and clear in 15 years. Solid value appreciation was just a bonus, sometimes even a windfall, but never expected or taken for granted.

Today, if you don’t carefully consider the long-term viability and demand of the rental property you purchase, you will be failing to properly factor in appreciation potential. You have to ask yourself if the property is one that has a good chance of enjoying increasing demand because of location, and thus greater value appreciation than less desirable areas.

Failure to ask this question is the mistake so many dummy investors made during the bubble years. These wannabe investors and seminar buyers with low down payments and the easy-to-obtain loans assumed, for no good reason, that the price of all real estate would rise, no matter what and no matter where.

In a strange way, these “appreciation” buyers were partially right in desiring appreciation, but were unrealistic in their underlying analysis, primary location selection. If you are not willing to pick a quality location, and sacrifice a bit on cash flow, then all your extra cash flow could easily be lost in value slippage as has happened to the investors who bought further outside Austin from 2005-2007.

Is it a good idea to bet on appreciation only? No, obviously not. But you can’t ignore the fact that the tighter ratio numbers of today require some value appreciation to make things work out over time. That means sticking to quality product in good locations.

Repair Costs
In the 1990s, we had an abundance of $25-$35 hr vendors who could fix just about anything in a home. Not anymore. We paid $350 total to swap out a 40 gallon water heater in 1999, today it’s $750. Stoves and dishwashers had simple parts that were cheap to fix or replace, today everything has an expensive computer chip and/or control card. Older appliances and HVAC systems lasted 10+ years, sometimes 20+ years. Today’s stuff often breaks down during the first year, especially cheap foreign made A/C coils that develop freon leaks. Everything today costs at least twice as much to repair as it did a decade ago.

What this means to you as an investor, is that the number and type of repair events that can wipe out an entire month of rent, or more, is substantially greater than in years past. A good analogy would be the comparison between rising health care costs and wages. Wages have not kept up and we all pay a greater percentage of our income toward health insurance and medical costs than a decade ago. So too does the landlord pay a greater percentage of rental income toward repairs today than was the case a decade ago.

Ten or fifteen years ago, our repair costs across an entire portfolio of management properties ran at about 8% of annual rents, including major replacements such as roofs and HVAC systems. Today it’s about 12%. In 1999, it cost 2 month’s rent to replace a roof ($2,000). Today it would cost 5.4 month’s rent to replace the roof ($6500) in my Cherry Creek example above. Luckily, roof replacements are few and far between, and often covered by insurance due to hail damage, but still.

Conclusion
Despite all this, I still invest in real estate and I’m still a buyer. The S&P 500 ended 2009 at about the same point it started in the year 2000, so at least in that decade, real estate was the winner for those of us who didn’t get sucked into the bubble mentality and stuck with basic decision-making rules. But real estate investing is not for everyone, and it makes sense for far fewer people today than it did in the past. Mainly because the opportunity to experience financial stress as a result of your rental property ownership is greater than before. People without sufficient reserves are the most vulnerable and should simply stay out.

Is there a safe way to get started?

The best way, I think, for someone to start in real estate investing is to convert your existing home into a rental when you move up, provided it’s well located and has the attributes of a good rental property, which means it’s not too big or small and will attract quality tenants.

By converting your existing home, your financing is already in place, you know the home and its location well already, the new owner-occupied loan you obtain for your next house will be much easier to obtain than a new investment loan, and if you’ve lived in the property at least 2 years, you have a 3 year window during which you can still sell with zero capital gains tax if it doesn’t work out for you. Then start saving for your third home and just keep leaving a trail of accumulated rental homes behind as you go.

This will be even more effective for those able to improve a home in disrepair while living in it, thus increasing its value (appreciation) more than whatever the natural appreciation rate might be.

And there are a number of other strategies for those with higher risk tolerance, but for most, starting slow and having a long term strategy and sufficient financial staying power is going to be key to success. If you don’t have at least 6 month’s rent set back to cover turnovers or unexpected repair events, you are in a weak position as a real estate investor, and your lack of funds can start a cascading series of bad decisions that eventually drag you down.

Play it safe, be smart, don’t make wild optimistic assumptions. Put at least 20% down, more if you can. Always assume the worst and ask if you can handle that. If not, don’t do it.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – Jan 2010 Stats

Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 14:00:45 +0000

The Austin real estate market started 2010 on an upswing. Average sold price is up 5.39% from a year ago, median sold price is up 2.12%, days on market are down. In fact, every measured metric on the chart below moved in a positive direction except for median list price, which is down slightly, but of no consequence. Let’s have a look.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update – January 2010
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	Dec 2009	Jan 2010	Jan 2009	Yr % Change
# Sold	1323	823	816	0.86%
Avg List	$274,819	$259,858	$249,289	4.24%
Med List	$199,740	$188,000	$189,700	-0.90%
Avg Sold	$262,574	$247,767	$235,101	5.39%
Med Sold	$194,000	$184,000	$180,189	2.12%
Sold/List %	95.54%	95.35%	94.31%	1.10%
Avg SQFT	2283	2220	2170	2.30%
Med SQFT	2049	2043	1942	5.20%
Avg $ SQFT	$115.01	$111.61	$108.34	3.01%
Avg DOM	82	78	82	-4.88%
Median DOM	48	50	66	-24.24%
# Expired	852	394	544	-27.57%
# Withdrawn	696	577	701	-17.69%
Not Sold	1548	971	1245	-22.01%
Not Sold %	53.92%	54.12%	60.41%	-10.40%

So, is this good news? Maybe. I don’t think sellers should get too excited, and buyers need not start worrying about rising prices. Jan 2009 was a down month, so topping it is nothing to brag about. Nevertheless, I do think our Austin real estate market has sunnier weather ahead, at least for the first half of the year.

The extended tax credit and continued low interest rates will motivate buyers in the lower ranges. An improving job market and the return of good job news, (some of which was announced today with Facebook bringing 200 new jobs and a Solar Panel company bring several hundred more), will cause an already “ok” Austin unemployment rate to keep dropping through the summer, barring any terrible macro-economic setbacks in the national economy. Once interest rates starts rising, as we expect later in the year, that will frighten some additional buyers into getting off the fence for fear of missing out on the good rates.

I think the upper end market will be slower to come back as many of the former $500K to $800K buyers will, I think, scale back lifestyles and settle for less Austintacious digs. Mercedes Homes said as much during a lunch presentation I heard today. They’ve redesigned a bunch of new floorplans to accomodate what their research says will be a more frugal market in the $300K and up range, as buyers seek smaller, better quality homes instead of sprawling big layouts. Makes since to me.

Below are some additional charts and stats. Let’s start with the 23 month lookback chart.

Above we see the up and down market Austin has experienced the past 23 months.But if we go back two years, to early 2008 when we knew we were headed for possible rough waters, if we had hoped only to see average prices hang in there at around $250K, and median prices to hold on at about $190K, we would have been happy to know that we’d spend the next two years bouncing around between $240K-$260K average, and $180K-$200K median.

I’m not ready to say we won’t see some further erosion of prices this year, or soft pockets in the Austin area, but I wouldn’t argue with someone who thinks the worst is behind us either.

And, certainly, I think, for buyers on the fence, the tie breaker goes to the very low interest rates, tax credit incentives, and the likelihood that we have one sluggish year ahead of us at worst. Also, for move-up buyers, you will have to give up less of a discount selling your current lower priced home than you’ll receive purchasing a more expensive home, so this is a good time for you to seriously consider making a move as well.

Let’s look at the price range breakdown of homes that sold in the Austin area in January.

Price Range	#Sold	DOM	Active	Mo. Inv
$149,999 or under	264	61	1886	5.07
$150,000 – $199,999	200	75	1718	5.49
$200,000 – $249,999	102	82	1147	7.31
$250,000 – $299,999	70	92	848	7.50
$300,000 – $349,999	51	71	575	7.63
$350,000 – $399,999	46	79	531	8.70
$400,000 – $449,999	24	114	318	10.26
$450,000 – $499,999	12	138	309	14.71
$500,000 – $549,999	7	80	169	9.57
$550,000 – $599,999	10	94	161	10.98
$600,000 – $699,999	9	177	245	19.34
$700,000 – $799,999	8	99	159	16.45
$800,000 – $899,999	8	133	141	16.27
$900,000 – $999,999	0	0	95	20.36
$1,000,000 or over	13	147	487	29.82

Unless you follow the above chart monthly, you might not know that it’s showing a rising MOI (Months of Inventory). This chart is at once the most useful and least useful for observing and predicting market activity. This is because the numerator used above the denomiator of “Active Listings” is derived from past activity and thus doesn’t necessarily predict future activity.

Also, there are several different ways of determining current volume of sales, none of which are without flaw. Not shown in the chart above is the “number of sales past 90 days” which is divided by 3 to arrive at “current average number of sales per month”. It is that average into which the number of active sales is divided which gives us the “months of Inventory” number. If the market is accelerating, as it may be, the MOI is inflated. If the market is declining, it is deflated.

But months of inventory is an important indicator of market activity, so it can’t be ignored. But we must view it in the context of knowing that November/December sales (which are included in the past 90 days) were pumped up by tax credit buyers. This might happen again in March or April as wave two of first time buyers buyers seek to beat the deadline of April 30, 2010 to write offers.

Having said all that, on face value, the chart indicates a near balanced market up to about the $350K range, with sellers having a slight advantage in the sub $200K range.

We have no Year to Date chart this month, obviously because these are January stats. As usual, questions/comments are welcome.

Austin Rental Market Update – Oct 2009

Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 22:27:07 +0000

The rental market for houses in Austin is still slowly improving, climbing out of the huge dip we took after the tech bust and 9/11. For October 2009, average and median rents are both up about 1%, but homes are taking longer to rent, averaging 42 days on market compared to 38 a year ago in October.

This is a macro view though. In talking with other property managers in Austin, it’s not uncommon for some homes to be renting for the same or less than a year earlier, while others can do a bit better. It’s really a function of the number of competing homes and the location of the property. It took 45 days for me to rent a central Austin home in 78704 recently and we had to take $50/mo. less than a year earlier. Had I accepted large dogs and/or poor credit, it would have rented right away, so rental criteria is also a determining factor in how long it takes and the amount attainable.

October stats are listed in the chart below.

Austin Real Estate Rental Market Update October 2009
Houses only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	Sep 2009	Oct 2009	Oct 2008	Yr % Change
# Rented	665	660	684	-3.51%
Avg List	$1,437	$1,421	$1,401	1.43%
Med List	$1,250	$1,250	$1,250	0.00%
Avg Rent	$1,419	$1,402	$1,388	1.01%
Med Rent	$1,250	$1,250	$1,240	0.81%
Rent/List %	98.75%	98.66%	99.07%	-0.41%
Avg SQFT	1970	1951	1882	3.67%
Med SQFT	1808	1800	1739	3.51%
Avg $ SQFT	$0.72	$0.72	$0.74	-2.56%
Avg DOM	40	42	38	10.53%
Median DOM	32	34	29	17.24%
# Expired	56	55	83	-33.73%
# Withdrawn	148	114	180	-36.67%
Not Rented	204	169	263	-35.74%
Not Rented %	23.48%	20.39%	27.77%	-26.59%

Let’s have a look at 2009 year to date through October, compared to the same period in 2008.

Austin Rental Market YTD Update – Jan-Oct 2009
Houses only (no condos, duplexes, etc) – Data from Austin MLS
	Jan-Oct 09	Jan-Oct 08	Yr % Change
# Rented	7,735	6,922	11.75%
Avg List	$1,464	$1,445	1.31%
Med List	$1,275	$1,290	-1.16%
Avg Rented	$1,449	$1,433	1.12%
Med Rented	$1,250	$1,275	-1.96%
Leased/List %	98.98%	99.17%	-0.20%
Avg SQFT	1969	1926	2.23%
Med SQFT	1814	1800	0.78%
Avg $ SQFT	$0.74	$0.74	-1.09%
Avg DOM	41	32	28.13%
Median DOM	30	22	36.36%
# Expired	501	614	-18.40%
# Withdrawn	1397	977	42.99%
Not Sold	1898	1591	19.30%
Not Sold %	20%	19%	5.43%

For the year, the median has dropped a bit while the average remains up about 1%. Remember though, 1% is only $14/mo for the average rental home in Austin. That’s about 1/3 of an average day’s rent, so nothing to get excited about. Days on market in 2009 are much higher than 2008 overall, which drives rents down as owners and property managers drop rents seeking faster rental. For $1,250 rental, it only has to remain vacant and extra 2 weeks to lose all of the additional rent gained over a faster $1195/mo. attempt, so landlords are always trying to find the market rent that will get it rented in an acceptable amount of time.

Finally, below the the history of our rental market average and median prices for rental homes in Austin. We’re still below our 200/2001 peaks rental rates.

As usual, questions, comments and observations are welcome.

Investing in Small Commercial vs. Residential Real Estate

Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 02:17:56 +0000

One of my commercial tenants skipped out on me earlier this year, so I have my office building on Manchaca Rd. for rent again. I knew it could possibly take 6 to 12 months to find a new tenant, and so far, even after dropping the rent from $1,700 to $1,495, I still don’t have it leased. Bummer.

This unfortunate reality is one of the first big differences between owning small commercial investment property versus single family homes in Austin. It would never take 6 to 12 months to rent a house (well, if you have a lousy Austin property manager it could I guess). But extended vacancy is not unusual with a commercial property, especially in this economic climate. Meanwhile I am absent the $1,700/mo. rental income that the former tenant, a tow truck company, provided. Ouch.

Ironically, I could have leased this property immediately, which would have been a streak of incredible luck, but I decided I didn’t want the type of business that the business owner wanted to set up. This is the second big difference in owning commercial investment in Austin versus residential rental property, making sure the tenant is a good fit for the property and the community.

The tenant prospect wanted to open up a “gaming room”. I wasn’t even sure what that was until I looked into it a bit more. It’s legal, apparently, but I just don’t want 40 or 50 of these gaming machines, which are a cross between bingo and slot machines, in my building, with gambling addicts sitting in front of them till midnight smoking, guzzling coffee and blowing their money trying to win Visa gift cards. It just doesn’t seem like an activity that adds value to the community of Manchaca, or society in general, so I don’t want to be involved by providing the venue. And I worry that even if the business is technically legal at present, our friends down at the Texas State Capital, who have a fondness for trying to legislate morality, might change the laws and cause me a vacancy. So I passed on the quick lease-up for personal reasons.

With residential property, you can’t do that. Applicants either qualify or they don’t, and even if the applicant owned a business I don’t like, it would be improper for me to decline rental on that basis.

Plus, that’s too many gamblers flushing my commodes in a property serviced by a 30+ year old septic system. On the other hand, the $15K in lost rent between then and now would have paid for a brand new septic system.

So, in a nutshell, this small commercial investment property is a cash cow when it’s leased. I paid $58K cash for it in 1998, and immediately invested another $17K remodeling it, so I’m in $75K for a property that was paying $1,700/mo. rent until it went vacant. Not a bad return. I can’t buy anything today that even comes close to that kind of ratio. Plus, it’s appreciated nicely to a value of about $250K today, and it’s located in the fastest growing zipcode in Austin, 78748. Had I invested that $75K in the S&P 500 10 years ago, I’d still have about $75K. Today, rent proceeds plus equity buildup make this a good investment.

But when it’s vacant, it stays vacant for a long time. Much longer than a typical house. As an investor, if you’re thinking about small commercial, you have to ask yourself if that’s ok. Can you handle extended vacancy or will it drive you crazy? I’m in it for the long haul and the vacancy, though unwanted, is just part of the business of investing in small commercial real estate, so it’s not upsetting or distressing to me given the return the property has already produced. But I don’t think the average small investor wants to own a property that is this difficult to rent. It’s high return, high risk and I think most small investors would prefer a more predictable real estate investment.

The other good thing about small commercial is that there are no repair hassles. The tenant who just left was there for over 5 years and I didn’t spend any money at all on repairs because, in the commercial lease, the tenant is 100% responsible for all repairs and maintenance. On the other hand, my eventual new tenant might want to negotiate thousands of dollars in finish-out or remodeling of the property, and I have to be ready to negotiate that. That could amount to a number much greater than 5 years of residential rental repairs, so, again, it’s great when the property is occupied, and it’s financially uncertain when it’s not.

In the end, I think most of the better cash flow of the small commercial rental property is eaten up in vacancy loss and potential build-out allowances, but I still like having a mix of residential investment properties and commercial.

I also have an office condo that I purchased brand new in 2007. That one took 6 months to lease and I had to give a $2,400 rent concession the first year on a $1,600/mo. lease. That’s the equivilent of a $12K hickey right out of the starting gate. But, when rented, this property also performs much better than any residential rental home I could purchase. I paid $150K and it rents for $1,600/mo. A $150K residential investment property in Austin would rent for $1,200/mo. +/-, so the question is whether or not the additional $4,800/yr in rent offsets the greater vacancy loss. If I keep this first tenant for 2.5+ years, it will, and then some, and it looks like that will happen. If I have a turnover before then, it won’t.

But remember, I have no repairs or maintenance costs with this commercial condo. No tenant hassles either. It’s on auto-pilot, which is really nice compared to a rental home. And my property insurance is only $500/yr. (though I do have an HOA fee) But, like the other property, this condo could go vacant and blow a big financial hole in the overall return if it stays empty for an extended period.

In Summary, I think if you’re only going to own one or two real estate investment properties in Austin, stick to residential houses or a duplex. If you’ve built up a small portfolio of residential and wish to diversify, small commercial rentals are a good addition to a real estate investment portfolio, but you have to make sure you have at least a year of reserves or that your residential properties provide enough cash flow to carry the commercial properties through the vacancy periods. Commercial ups and downs are not for the feint of heart.

Also, residential is much easier to dispose of quickly if you needed to sell. Financing is very difficult, especially now, for small commercial, which makes it harder to sell. On the other hand, if you are a solid buyer and able to obtain a commercial loan, you have good leverage in this market as you might be the only qualified buyer your seller will encounter for the next 12 months. Austin Telco Credit Union has good commercial loans with low closing costs and rates in the 6% range.

Finally, why didn’t I just put all this in a spreadsheet and create a side-by-side comparison of a Rental House vs. a Small Commercial investment property? Mainly, because I don’t evaluate my purchase decisions with spreadsheets. I think spreadsheets cause more bad real estate purchase decisions than good ones for real estate investors. Maybe I’ll cover that topic in another blog soon. But put away the spreadsheet and use your common sense, math you can do in your head, and gut intuition and you’ll outperform your spreadsheet-worshiping real estate investor counterparts over time, I promise.

Austin Real Estate Sale Stats by MLS Area – Sept 2009 YTD

Steve Crossland, REALTOR in Austin TX — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 16:00:36 +0000

Austin’s real estate market is a “market of markets”, and thus the overall news reported about real estate activity in the Austin Metro area may or may not be reflective of conditions in the specific area in which you live, or the home you own, or the home you want to buy. Each quarter I break down the Austin Real Estate market year-to-date stats into MLS area-specific comparisons of the year before so we can take a look at the variations among different pockets of Austin.

If you follow these quarterly Austin MLS breakdowns, you know that there is always variation among different MLS areas and price ranges, for better or worse. This Year-to-Date report through Sept 2009 is a head scratcher for me though, mainly because the number of Austin MLS areas that normally outperform the overall market has dwindled substantially. Based on what Sylvia and I are experiencing in the field, I would have guessed the opposite to be true. And the market overall is holding up.

But here’s what I’m talking about …

Of the 44 Austin Metro MLS areas tracked below…
5 Austin MLS areas had an increase in average sold prices (3 months ago it was 11)
7 Austin MLS areas had an increase in median sold prices (3 months ago it was 11)
1 Austin MLS area had an increase in average sold price per square foot (3 months ago it was 7).
4 of the Austin MLS areas saw a decrease in average days on market (same as 3 months ago)
7 of the Austin MLS areas saw a decrease in median days on market (3 months ago it was 6).
1 (only 1) Austin MLS area saw an increase in the three main pricing metrics – avg and median sold, and price per square foot. Three areas were in this clug at mid-year.

So does this mean the Austin real estate market is getting worse? As usual, it depends. From a statistical standpoint, more areas are trending down than up. But if you ask Sylvia and I if we’re busy, yes we are. We had 4 closings in October and three on the board already for November, which is unusual for the slow season. On the other hand, if you ask an agent who specializes in luxury homes in Lakeway, they will probably say things are dismal. And I do in fact have a listing on 10 acres in Dripping Springs that isn’t getting any showings even though we think it’s under priced.

Add in the government interference/intervention in normal real estate market activity with the tax credit incentives, the nervous jitters of the stock market, artificially low interest rates, appraisal issues, and what we have is a number of variables pulling and tugging with and against one another. Bottom line, overall, at 3% down for the year on average sold price and about even on medial sold price, Austin’s market is doing about what we think it should, as a whole. It’s just interesting to see all the underlying cross currents.

That said, below is the breakdown summary, then you can study the chart yourself and see how your areas of interest are doing. As usual, questions and comments are welcome.

	Austin Real Estate Sales by MLS Area – YTD Sept 2009
	Houses only – Condos, Duplexes, etc not included

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
All Areas	2009	13928	$245,616	$192,000	2,184	$112.46	75	48
	2008	16317	$253,320	$193,000	2,142	$118.26	65	43
	Change	-14.64%	-3.04%	-0.52%	1.96%	-4.91%	15.38%	11.63%

MLS Area	YTD-Apr	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
1A	2009	131	$477,754	$432,000	2,779	$171.92	80	47
	2008	161	$500,373	$469,000	2,707	$184.84	59	36
	Change	-18.63%	-4.52%	-7.89%	2.66%	-6.99%	35.59%	30.56%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
1B	2009	177	$620,504	$540,000	2,471	$251.11	107	79
	2008	196	$705,289	$557,498	2,382	$296.09	52	37
	Change	-9.69%	-12.02%	-3.14%	3.74%	-15.19%	105.77%	113.51%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
1N	2009	323	$298,164	$262,000	2,188	$136.27	50	32
	2008	346	$292,265	$263,000	2,101	$139.11	39	22
	Change	-6.65%	2.02%	-0.38%	4.14%	-2.04%	28.21%	45.45%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
2	2009	244	$252,058	$249,000	1,403	$179.66	53	32
	2008	258	$267,376	$257,000	1,439	$185.81	51	33
	Change	-5.43%	-5.73%	-3.11%	-2.50%	-3.31%	3.92%	-3.03%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
2N	2009	194	$151,973	$144,750	1,558	$97.54	54	34
	2008	227	$155,527	$150,000	1,439	$108.08	51	33
	Change	-14.54%	-2.29%	-3.50%	8.27%	-9.75%	5.88%	3.03%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
3	2009	239	$221,094	$208,000	1,580	$139.93	80	54
	2008	233	$223,216	$206,000	1,522	$146.66	60	41
	Change	2.58%	-0.95%	0.97%	3.81%	-4.59%	33.33%	31.71%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
3E	2009	95	$144,189	$125,000	1,523	$94.67	87	49
	2008	114	$155,202	$146,725	1,596	$97.24	69	52
	Change	-16.67%	-7.10%	-14.81%	-4.57%	-2.64%	26.09%	-5.77%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
4	2009	187	$356,178	$325,000	1,559	$228.47	71	47
	2008	234	$367,404	$335,000	1,543	$238.11	58	43
	Change	-20.09%	-3.06%	-2.99%	1.04%	-4.05%	22.41%	9.30%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
5	2009	159	$179,345	$157,200	1,242	$144.40	68	51
	2008	230	$187,117	$170,000	1,216	$153.88	66	49
	Change	-30.87%	-4.15%	-7.53%	2.14%	-6.16%	3.03%	4.08%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
5E	2009	78	$105,785	$106,934	1,421	$74.44	54	43
	2008	65	$113,467	$110,000	1,651	$68.73	51	36
	Change	20.00%	-6.77%	-2.79%	-13.93%	8.32%	5.88%	19.44%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
6	2009	130	$366,213	$320,000	1,573	$232.81	79	49
	2008	157	$368,887	$326,700	1,498	$246.25	60	39
	Change	-17.20%	-0.72%	-2.05%	5.01%	-5.46%	31.67%	25.64%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
7	2009	53	$429,826	$390,000	1,773	$242.43	76	51
	2008	89	$426,637	$371,500	1,744	$244.63	53	32
	Change	-40.45%	0.75%	4.98%	1.66%	-0.90%	43.40%	59%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
8E	2009	138	$828,166	$625,500	3,589	$230.75	91	53
	2008	146	$863,337	$730,250	3,327	$259.49	70	42
	Change	-5.48%	-4.07%	-14.34%	7.87%	-11.08%	30.00%	26%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
8W	2009	171	$623,611	$490,000	3,353	$185.99	85	53
	2008	190	$626,800	$465,500	3,202	$195.75	75	48
	Change	-10.00%	-0.51%	5.26%	4.72%	-4.99%	13.33%	10%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
9	2009	39	$151,388	$144,300	1,455	$104.05	71	44
	2008	40	$188,769	$172,101	1,523	$123.95	52	44
	Change	-2.50%	-19.80%	-16.15%	-4.46%	-16.05%	36.54%	0%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
10N	2009	196	$183,624	$172,000	1,402	$130.97	50	23
	2008	215	$194,601	$175,000	1,441	$135.05	45	23
	Change	-8.84%	-5.64%	-1.71%	-2.71%	-3.02%	11.11%	0%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
10S	2009	462	$179,339	$175,000	1,659	$108.10	47	25
	2008	510	$180,213	$174,000	1,634	$110.29	40	25
	Change	-9.41%	-0.48%	0.57%	1.53%	-1.98%	17.50%	0%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
11	2009	152	$109,601	$109,250	1,445	$75.85	54	44
	2008	172	$119,005	$113,605	1,414	$84.16	50	34
	Change	-11.63%	-7.90%	-3.83%	2.19%	-9.88%	8.00%	29%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
BA	2009	179	$149,659	$136,000	1,784	$83.89	71	43
	2008	215	$156,100	$148,206	1,819	$85.82	75	47
	Change	-16.74%	-4.13%	-8.24%	-1.92%	-2.25%	-5.33%	-9%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
BW	2009	78	$202,815	$174,945	2,197	$92.31	81	57
	2008	102	$216,134	$190,750	2,210	$97.80	67	55
	Change	-23.53%	-6.16%	-8.29%	-0.59%	-5.61%	20.90%	4%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
CLN	2009	705	$184,146	$155,000	2,115	$87.07	67	41
	2008	873	$178,014	$156,500	2,017	$88.26	57	36
	Change	-19.24%	3.44%	-0.96%	4.86%	-1.35%	17.54%	14%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
CLS	2009	746	$239,825	$216,313	2,436	$98.45	70	50
	2008	831	$240,601	$217,800	2,382	$101.01	67	48
	Change	-10.23%	-0.32%	-0.68%	2.27%	-2.53%	4.48%	4%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
EL	2009	147	$115,700	$97,850	1,842	$62.81	58	41
	2008	187	$124,215	$118,000	1,771	$70.14	64	47
	Change	-21.39%	-6.86%	-17.08%	4.01%	-10.45%	-9.38%	-13%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
GTE	2009	163	$162,128	$146,000	1,912	$84.79	74	35
	2008	235	$163,301	$153,225	1,853	$88.13	66	43
	Change	-30.64%	-0.72%	-4.72%	3.18%	-3.78%	12.12%	-19%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
GTW	2009	535	$249,324	$215,000	2,327	$107.14	112	82
	2008	621	$247,025	$213,950	2,218	$111.37	89	64
	Change	-13.85%	0.93%	0.49%	4.91%	-3.80%	25.84%	28%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
HD	2009	267	$335,106	$310,000	2,905	$115.35	110	77
	2008	316	$360,345	$345,495	2,896	$124.43	102	77
	Change	-15.51%	-7.00%	-10.27%	0.31%	-7.29%	7.84%	0%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
HH	2009	622	$166,668	$149,900	2,029	$82.14	71	45
	2008	769	$180,966	$156,483	2,101	$86.13	64	44
	Change	-19.12%	-7.90%	-4.21%	-3.43%	-4.63%	10.94%	2%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
HU	2009	333	$149,721	$136,000	1,986	$75.39	67	48
	2008	373	$154,442	$143,490	1,985	$77.80	59	38
	Change	-10.72%	-3.06%	-5.22%	0.05%	-3.11%	13.56%	26%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
LN	2009	129	$266,867	$195,000	2,092	$127.57	119	79
	2008	160	$293,980	$222,000	2,114	$139.06	81	59
	Change	-19.38%	-9.22%	-12.16%	-1.04%	-8.27%	46.91%	34%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
LS	2009	520	$426,690	$348,200	2,945	$144.89	116	81
	2008	567	$487,974	$365,000	2,873	$169.85	103	74
	Change	-8.29%	-12.56%	-4.60%	2.51%	-14.70%	12.62%	9%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
MA	2009	181	$119,592	$107,000	1,684	$71.02	67	37
	2008	215	$146,815	$133,000	1,974	$74.37	73	44
	Change	-15.81%	-18.54%	-19.55%	-14.69%	-4.51%	-8.22%	-16%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
N	2009	260	$186,044	$183,000	1,935	$96.15	39	24
	2008	298	$191,580	$185,000	1,842	$104.01	38	22
	Change	-12.75%	-2.89%	-1.08%	5.05%	-7.56%	2.63%	9%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
NE	2009	235	$150,056	$150,215	1,824	$82.27	59	41
	2008	259	$154,840	$154,168	1,812	$85.45	53	35
	Change	-9.27%	-3.09%	-2.56%	0.66%	-3.73%	11.32%	17%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
NW	2009	478	$246,332	$214,250	2,244	$109.77	51	28
	2008	466	$255,267	$211,000	2,248	$113.55	40	20
	Change	2.58%	-3.50%	1.54%	-0.18%	-3.33%	27.50%	40%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
PF	2009	849	$165,319	$156,000	2,123	$77.87	63	39
	2008	995	$166,183	$156,500	2,007	$82.80	61	41
	Change	-14.67%	-0.52%	-0.32%	5.78%	-5.96%	3.28%	-5%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
RN	2009	313	$483,611	$400,000	3,490	$138.57	100	77
	2008	354	$529,716	$412,500	3,327	$159.22	98	75
	Change	-11.58%	-8.70%	-3.03%	4.90%	-12.97%	2.04%	3%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
RRE	2009	833	$187,815	$164,000	2,303	$81.55	79	50
	2008	1082	$188,380	$163,000	2,222	$84.78	65	42
	Change	-23.01%	-0.30%	0.61%	3.65%	-3.81%	21.54%	19%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
RRW	2009	810	$231,932	$221,250	2,553	$90.85	76	54
	2008	1004	$244,905	$229,000	2,563	$95.55	66	47
	Change	-19.32%	-5.30%	-3.38%	-0.39%	-4.93%	15.15%	15%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
SC	2009	118	$175,037	$148,869	2,029	$86.27	62	38
	2008	133	$189,828	$163,740	2,166	$87.64	52	37
	Change	-11.28%	-7.79%	-9.08%	-6.33%	-1.57%	19.23%	3%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
SE	2009	96	$111,697	$108,200	1,791	$62.37	57	39
	2008	141	$127,430	$128,000	1,847	$68.99	59	41
	Change	-31.91%	-12.35%	-15.47%	-3.03%	-9.61%	-3.39%	-5%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
SWE	2009	479	$227,999	$210,000	2,188	$104.20	67	42
	2008	547	$235,192	$219,000	2,154	$109.19	50	34
	Change	-12.43%	-3.06%	-4.11%	1.58%	-4.56%	34.00%	24%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
SWW	2009	437	$292,965	$275,000	2,548	$114.98	62	37
	2008	547	$310,213	$285,000	2,523	$122.95	51	32
	Change	-20.11%	-5.56%	-3.51%	0.99%	-6.49%	21.57%	16%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
UT	2009	26	$459,141	$427,500	1,936	$237.16	91	76
	2008	40	$473,759	$419,750	1,855	$255.40	56	39
	Change	-35.00%	-3.09%	1.85%	4.37%	-7.14%	62.50%	95%

MLS Area	Year	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days
W	2009	209	$481,490	$335,000	2,963	$162.50	83	50
	2008	208	$441,902	$335,000	2,796	$158.05	68	47
	Change	0.48%	8.96%	0.00%	5.97%	2.82%	22.06%	6%

Yes, shame on Pearson for expressing himself on his Web site.