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The Crossland Team
Sylvia Crossland, Broker Steve Crossland, MPM (512) 301-5811 |
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Austin Real Estate Market Update - July 2008
August 21, 2008
The average sales price for houses in Austin in July 2008 remained about level, decreasing slightly (0.05%) to $262,114. The number of failed sales efforts (expired or withdrawn) was 42%, which is a large number. Days on market continues to climb also, to 60 days average on market and 39 median days on market. Those numbers are not bad actually, but last year DOM was 51 and 31, so things are definitely slower this year.
Here is a quick summary of the July stats.
• Number of homes sold is down 24% from 2,544 July 2007 to 1,926 July 2008.
• Average sold prices in Austin were down 0.05% over the same month last year to $262,114.
• Median sold price was up 3.65% over the same month last year to $199,000.
• Avg sold price per square foot is down 2.62% from July 2007 to $121 per sqft.
• Avg days on market is up 9 days (18%) from 51 last year to 60 this July.
• Median days on market is up 8 days (26%) from 31 days last year to 39 this year.
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is up a whopping 56% over the same month last year, to 42% of all removed listings.
Below is the chart with these stats, along with a YTD chart.
One thing to note is that it was about this time last year, or a bit earlier, when we really started to notice the Austin real estate market slowing down. Because of that, I think moving forward we’re going to see the year over year gaps narrow somewhat as we move into comparing a slower period 2008 to a slower period 2007. In other words, we’re a year into our Austin lull, so were not comparing a hot market for the year prior to a cool market as we have been for about the past year.
| Austin Real Estate Market Update for July 2008 | ||||
| All Austin / Central TX MLS Areas – Houses Only | ||||
|
Jun 2008
|
Jul 2008
|
Jul 2007
|
Yr % Change
|
|
| # Sold |
2032
|
1926
|
2544
|
-24.29%
|
| Avg List |
$274,504
|
$271,058
|
$269,722
|
0.50%
|
| Med List |
$209,000
|
$203,443
|
$196,250
|
3.67%
|
| Avg Sold |
$264,653
|
$262,114
|
$262,233
|
-0.05%
|
| Med Sold |
$202,000
|
$199,000
|
$192,000
|
3.65%
|
| List/Sold % |
96.41%
|
96.70%
|
97.22%
|
-0.54%
|
| Avg SQFT |
2133
|
2170
|
2114
|
2.65%
|
| Med SQFT |
1949
|
1965
|
1919
|
2.40%
|
| Avg $ SQFT |
$124
|
$121
|
$124
|
-2.62%
|
| Avg DOM |
61
|
60
|
51
|
17.65%
|
| Median DOM |
36
|
39
|
31
|
25.81%
|
| # Expired |
522
|
522
|
367
|
42.23%
|
| # Withdrawn |
687
|
875
|
568
|
54.05%
|
| Not Sold |
1209
|
1397
|
935
|
49.41%
|
| Not Sold % |
37%
|
42%
|
27%
|
56.43%
|
| On the Market (houses) as of July 21, 2008: | ||||
| 12,756 = Active Res Listings in Austin MLS (12,466 last month) | ||||
| 10,620 = Total Single Family Homes listed (10,335 last month) | ||||
| 1853 = Condo/Townhome/Loft/Garden Homes listed (1870 last mo.) | ||||
| 283 = Mobile/Manufactured Homes | ||||
Below is the year to date breakdown.
Read more
Austin Real Estate Sales Breakdown by MLS Area - June 2008 YTD
July 14, 2008
Below is the breakdown of year-to-date home sales in Austin by MLS area. This is for houses only, no condos, townhomes, etc. I’m often asked, “how is the Austin real estate market?”, to which I reply, it depends on which market you are talking about. There are multiple “markets” and sub-markets in Austin. Here are some summary points I gleaned from the stats.
* Of the 42 Austin MLS areas tracked below, all but 1 have fewer sales Jan-Jun 2008 compared to 2007. The only area with more sales than the same 6-month period last year was the UT area with 26 sales YTD this year compared to 24 last year.
* 28 of the 42 Austin MLS areas have higher average sales prices for 2008 than the same period last year. That’s 2/3 of Austin’s MLS areas experiencing price increases for average sales price.
* The same number (28) of Austin MLS areas have increases in Median Sold prices compared to a year ago.
* 24 MLS areas saw an increase in both average and median sold prices.
* 27 of the 42 Austin MLS areas saw an increase in average price per square foot on homes sold.
* Of the 24 MLS areas that saw an increase in both average sold and median sold prices, 21 of those areas also showed an increase in the average sold price per square foot. This means half of all Austin MLS areas have experienced price increases in all three of the main metrics that indicate price appreciation. These areas generally tend to congregate around Central Austin. 14 of these areas are within a 20 minute drive of downtwon. 7 are east of IH35.
* 7 of the Austin areas saw a decrease in all three metrics of avg, median and psf sales prices. Those areas were 8W (Eanes West), EL (Elgin), LN (Lake North), LS (Lake South), MA (Manor), SC (Far SE Austin) and W (West Austin). It’s interesting that, with the exception of area LN, all of the areas with triple drops are either way above or way below the Austin average and median sales prices. This jives with what we know, that both the upper and lower ends of the market are slow.
* 7 of the 42 MLS area saw a decrease in the Days on Market, meaning homes are selling faster in those areas than a year ago. Most areas saw an increase in days on market, indicating slower sales.
Check the chart below to see how your particular area is doing. As usual, questions and comments are welcome.
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Austin Sales Market - June 2008 and Mid-Year Stats Update
July 14, 2008
Below is the June 2008 Austin real estate market update, including YTD stats. For starters, I thought I’d post a graph showing Average Sales prices in Austin from 1999 through June 2008 for houses, condos and multi-family properties. Austin’s real estate market has historically moved in fits and starts. The slowdown indicated by the June 2008 YTD dip in the graph is real and present, but I’ll match this graph against that of almost any other metro area in the US and say that, relative to the rest of the country, the Austin real estate market is looking pretty darned good.
The average sales price for houses in Austin increased 0.47% in June from $263,421 in June 2007 to $264,653 June 2008. We continue to have a large number of expired and withdrawn listings though, and days on market continues to creep upward. Nevertheless, many homes are selling fast with hardly a sign of a slow market, while others, though seemingly well priced and in good showing condition, sit with no offers. Sylvia and I placed a new listing in South Austin on the market a couple of weeks ago and had it under contract in 4 days with a good offer. It was in average condition. Other listings we have in south Austin are equally as well priced and in better showing condition, but no offers yet. I just placed a new listing in Cedar Park yesterday which is priced at about 97% of market value, and I expect it to sell fast, but can’t be as confident as I could in 2006 and 2007. The market seems fickle and somewhat unpredictable at present.
Here is a quick summery of the June stats.
• Number of homes sold is down 25% from 2,702 June 2007 to 2,032 June 2008.
• Average sold prices in Austin were up 0.47% over the same month last year to $264,653.
• Median sold price was up 3.62% over the same month last year to $202,000. I’ll have to doublecheck, but I think this is the first time the median sales price in Austin has broken through the $200K mark.
• Avg sold price per square foot is up 0.84% over June 2007 to $124 per sqft.
• Avg days on market is up 11 days (22%) from 50 last year to 61 this May. Exactly the same as last month.
• Median days on market is unavailable again this month because our $1M/yr MLS software, MLXChange, won’t produce it. (I continue to be dismayed and deeply disappointed in the poor performance of our MLS software, MLXChange, which we are 8 months into and still experiencing numerous data intergity problems.)
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is up a whopping 29% over the same month last year, but a far less increase than last month.
Below is the chart with these stats, along with a YTD chart. I’ll have area breakdowns posted in a separate post later today or tomorrow, so check back to see how your area is doing.
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Austin Real Estate Market - May 2008 Update
June 23, 2008
The average sales price for houses in Austin increased 5.14% in May from $259,958 in May 2007 to $275,711 May 2008. Sales prices had been flat or falling since Feb 2008, but May has us heading the other way again. We continue to have a large number of “failed sales” listings though, and days on market continues to creep upward. In short, there are a lot of mixed signals in the sales data. Here is a brief summary followed by charts below.
• Number of homes sold is down 24% from 2,630 May 2007 to 2,006 May 2008.
• Average sold prices in Austin were up 5.14% over the same month last year to $275,711.
• Median sold price was up 7.01% over the same month last year to $199,925.
• Avg sold price per square foot is up 4.02% over May 2007 to $124 per sqft.
• Avg days on market is up 11 days (22%) from 50 last year to 61 this May.
• Median days on market is unavailable because our $1M/yr MLS software, MLXChange, won’t produce it this month. I’ll leave it at that before I go off on another “MLXChange Sucks” rant.
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is up a whopping 56% over the same month last year.
| Austin Real Estate Market Update for May 2008 | ||||
| All Austin / Central TX MLS Areas – Houses Only | ||||
|
Apr 2008
|
May 2008
|
May 2007
|
Yr % Change
|
|
| # Sold |
1826
|
2006
|
2630
|
-23.73%
|
| Avg List |
$254,318
|
$275,711
|
$259,958
|
6.06%
|
| Med List |
$194,935
|
$203,037
|
$189,900
|
6.92%
|
| Avg Sold |
$245,483
|
$267,231
|
$254,169
|
5.14%
|
| Med Sold |
$189,000
|
$199,925
|
$186,832
|
7.01%
|
| List/Sold % |
96.52%
|
96.92%
|
97.77%
|
-0.87%
|
| Avg SQFT |
2117
|
2155
|
2132
|
1.08%
|
| Med SQFT |
1924
|
1941
|
1928
|
0.67%
|
| Avg $ SQFT |
$116
|
$124
|
$119
|
4.02%
|
| Avg DOM |
63
|
61
|
50
|
22.00%
|
| Median DOM |
39
|
*
|
*
|
not avail MLS
|
| # Expired |
519
|
509
|
306
|
66.34%
|
| # Withdrawn |
586
|
599
|
473
|
26.64%
|
| Not Sold |
1105
|
1108
|
779
|
42.23%
|
| Not Sold % |
38%
|
36%
|
23%
|
55.71%
|
| On the Market (houses) as of June 23, 2008: | ||||
| 12,466 = Active Res Listings in Austin MLS (12,066 last month) | ||||
| 10,335 = Total Single Family Homes listed (9942 last month) | ||||
| 1870 = Condo/Townhome/Loft/Garden Homes listed (2026 last mo.) | ||||
| 97 = Mobile/Manufactured Homes (97 last month) | ||||
For the Year-to-Date numbers, the sales prices for Homes in Austin are about even for Jan-May 2008 over Jan-May 2007.
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Texas Real Estate Market Update April 2008
May 31, 2008
TEXAS (Real Estate Center, MarketWatch) – A total of 21,638 existing homes were sold in Texas last month, a 10.3 percent decline from April 2007 according to MLS data compiled by the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. The median price rose 0.6 percent to $147,300 during the same period, and the state finished the month with a 6.5-month inventory on existing homes.
Here is how select Texas cities fared in April:
Amarillo
* 299 homes sold (4.9 percent increase over previous year)
* Median price of $124,900 (5.5 percent increase)
* Five-month inventory
Austin
* 2,217 homes sold (13.6 percent decrease)
* Median price of $186,900 (2.7 percent increase)
* 5.3-month inventory
(Steve’s notes: Austin is technically still in a Seller’s market with inventory of 5.3 months, however, the reality on the ground is that many areas of Austin, and the upper price ranges (over $400K), are in a buyer’s market.)
Beaumont
* 210 homes sold (2.9 percent increase)
* Median price of $126,700 (7.6 percent increase)
* 7.1-month inventory
Read more
Austin Real Estate Market - April 2008 Sales Update
May 21, 2008
The Austin real estate market average sales values fell in April 2008 compared to the year before, yet there remain many areas in Austin with strong sales. The average sales price of an Austin home in April 2008 is $245,483. Last year in April it was $254,846. That’s a price drop of 3.67% overall, but further below I’ll explain how this is misleading and that 75% of the MLS areas in Austin have appreciating values, many over 10%.
Median sold price is up 0.53% from $188,000 a year ago to $189,000 this year. See the chart below and a further rundown on what’s happening in the Austin real estate market below.
Austin Real Estate Market Update for April 2008
All Austin / Central TX MLS Areas – Houses Only
# Sold
Avg List
Med List
Avg Sold
Med Sold
List/Sold %
Avg SQFT
Med SQFT
Avg $ SQFT
Avg DOM
Median DOM
# Expired
# Withdrawn
Not Sold
Not Sold %
On the Market as of May 19 2008:
12,066 = Active Res Listings in Austin MLS (11,522 last month)
9942 = Total Single Family Homes listed (9410 last month)
2026 = Condo/Townhome/Loft/Garden Homes listed (1845 last mo.)
97 = Mobile/Manufactured Homes (267 last month)
The Austin real estate market continues to be sluggish for April 2008 overall, according to our stats, but with many well performing pockets. Number of sales dropped 18% from the same month a year ago. Average list price is down 2.54%. Average sold price, as noted above, dropped 3.67% year over year for April. This is the second month in a row with a 3% drop in average sold price. Median Sold price is up half a percent.
Read more
Austin Sales Market Update - 2008Q1 Stats Breakdown by MLS Area
April 21, 2008
Below is a chart breaking down Austin MLS Sales of single family homes by MLS area for Jan-Mar 2008. Not all MLS areas are included due to low or no sales activity in some.
Of the 42 areas covered 36 saw a decrease in the number of homes sold and 6 saw an increase in the number of sales. 32 of the 42 areas saw an increase in Average sales price, 35 saw an increase in median sales price, 30 saw an increase in average sold price per square foot. Only 15 of the 42 areas saw a decrease in average days on market and only 7 saw a decrease in median days on market.
In summary, sales are slow in Austin but overall prices are holding steady or rising. Chart of 2007/2008 sales stats by MLS area is below.
Read more
Austin Real Estate Market Update for March 2008
April 16, 2008
The Austin real estate market continues to be sluggish for March 2008 according to our stats. Number of sales dropped 25% from the same month a year ago. Average list price is down 2%. Average sold price dropped 3% year over year for March. Last month was about even, but 3% is a definite drop, our first since Feb 2005 not counting last month. On the brighter side (if you want prices to increase), our Median Sold price is up almost 6% for March. So we still have a lot of cross currents in the market.
I added a new stat to the chart this month - Sold/List price percentage. For March, listings sold for 96.50% of the list price, down from 98.14% last year. This tells us that sellers are starting off a bit high and having to drop the price to sell. Average sold price per square foot is down 4% from $119 last year to $114 this year. Days on market has increased to 69 average days to sell and 45 median days. Nevertheless, with days-on-market numbers like those, Austin is still the envy of almost any other market in the country.
Finally, the Sold vs. Not Sold ratio is up 43% from last year. In March 2008, 1,691 Homes sold through the Austin MLS, and 1,028 were withdrawn or expired, which was 38% of all disposed listings. A year ago it was 24%. You may remember in December 2007, there were actually more homes coming off the market unsold than sold, as sellers pulled listings for the holidays. But with about 4 of 10 listings eventually failing to sell, it’s ever more important for sellers and agents to be smart in pricing and preparing the home for sale.
| Austin Real Estate Market Update for March 2008 | ||||
| All MLS Areas – Houses Only | ||||
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | Mar 2007 | Yr % Change | |
| # Sold | 1473 | 1691 | 2259 | -25.14% |
| Avg List | $247,105 | $251,643 | $256,746 | -1.99% |
| Med List | $189,000 | $196,900 | $182,900 | 7.65% |
| Avg Sold | $237,432 | $241,566 | $249,134 | -3.04% |
| Med Sold | $182,471 | $190,000 | $179,500 | 5.85% |
| Avg SQFT | 2091 | 2126 | 2100 | 1.24% |
| Med SQFT | 1909 | 1937 | 1888 | 2.60% |
| Avg $ SQFT | $114 | $114 | $119 | -4.22% |
| Avg DOM | 70 | 69 | 60 | 15.00% |
| Median DOM | 53 | 45 | 31 | 45.16% |
| # Expired | 499 | 547 | 337 | 62.31% |
| # Withdrawn | 509 | 481 | 383 | 25.59% |
| Not Sold | 1008 | 1028 | 720 | 42.78% |
| Not Sold % | 41% | 38% | 24% | 56.43% |
| On the Market as of April 15 2008: | ||||
| 11,522 = Total Active Residential Listings in Austin MLS | ||||
| 9410 = Total Single Family Homes listed | ||||
| 1845 = Condo/Townhome/Loft/Garden Homes listed | ||||
| 267 = Mobile/Manufactured Homes | ||||
I look at these numbers and still wonder when our reality will begin to match the apparent slowdown. Sylvia and I remain very busy and it is in fact no cakewalk finding good, well priced homes for our buyers in the areas we work, mostly south and southwest.
Many listings we see are selling for higher prices than last year and the best listings receive multiple offers. We continue to encounter an amazingly large number of over-priced listings and stubborn sellers though. Those are the sellers who won’t even counter-offer a market-value offer on their overpriced listing, holding out for a higher price. Those are the same listings we see coming off the market unsold, and it helps explain why the sold/list price ration dropped about 2 points from last year, as price adjustments are being made by the more motivated sellers.
Below is the year to date breakdown.
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Austin Real Estate Market -Feb 2008 YTD MLS Area Breakdown
March 21, 2008
Below is Year to Date breakdown for sales of single family homes in Austin by MLS Area. Something interesting happened when I was running these stats that reminded me of the big swings that can be caused by just one or two sales when we are looking at small sample sizes.
About half way through, I realized that this year is leap year, so I was running 2008 sales from 1/1/2008 thru 2/28/2008, which means I was unintentionally excluding homes that closed Feb 29, 2008, so I had to go back and recalculate the values. In doing so, as I typed revised sales numbers numbers into my excel spreadsheet and watched the percentage fields change, it was interesting to me to see the resulting percentage changes.
For example, MLS Area 6 had 15 sales through Feb 28th. These 15 sales had an average sales price of $329,028 (2.51% higher than the year before) and a median sales price of $281,000 (4.75% lower than the year before). When the 16th sale from Feb 29th was was factored in, the median sales price fell from $281,000 to $258,000, changing the percentage drop from -4.75 to -12.54%. The Average Sales price change went from 2.51% to 0.68%.
Read more
Austin Real Estate Market Update - Feb 2008
March 14, 2008
The average sales price for single family homes in Austin FELL in Feb 2008 compared to Feb 2007. In the 2 and a half years I’ve been posting Austin real estate stats on this blog, this is the first year over year drop. How much did prices fall? Well, -0.07%. But it’s a number with a minus sign in front nonetheless. Last month, Jan, saw a rise of 6.61%. The year 2007 was up 6.62% over 2006. So what happened in February?
I can’t personally answer that question yet. Sylvia and I have been swamped since New Years. We wrote more volume in sales than any other team in our office for Feb (a “Team” is a two person entity at Keller Williams, a “Group” is 3 or more working together), and we’ve had a heck of a time finding reasonable deals for our buyers (see my write-ups on over-priced listings and stubborn sellers).
I’ll dig deeper into the numbers and report what I find in Part II of this month’s stats report, but a quick peek tells me is that area SWW, where we specialize, is up 8% from last year, so we just are not experiencing what the macro stats indicate. It’s most likely the outskirt areas that have fallen, dragging down the area-wide average sales price. I doubt that any of the closer in areas we work (South/SW Austin, Central, W, NW) have fallen. We’ll know for sure after I find time to run an area by area breakdown.
Below is the chart for Feb 2008 austin sales market. Remember, I only run single family homes. Condo sales are not included.
|
Jan 2008
|
Feb 2008
|
Feb 2007
|
Yr % Change
|
|
| # Sold |
1228
|
1419
|
1680
|
-15.54%
|
| Avg List Price |
$260,784
|
$247,586
|
$245,467
|
0.86%
|
| Median List Price |
$196,008
|
$189,000
|
$184,548
|
2.41%
|
| Avg Sold Price |
$260,742
|
$237,974
|
$238,131
|
-0.07%
|
| Med Sold Price |
$190,000
|
$182,471
|
$179,000
|
1.94%
|
| Avg Size SQFT |
2150
|
2089
|
2087
|
0.10%
|
| Median SQFT |
1954
|
1907
|
1913
|
-0.31%
|
| Avg $ per SQFT |
$121
|
$114
|
$114
|
-0.16%
|
| Avg Days on Mkt |
69
|
70
|
64
|
9.38%
|
| Median Days on Mkt |
51
|
53
|
42
|
26.19%
|
| # Expired |
578
|
495
|
298
|
66.11%
|
| # Withdrawn |
626
|
511
|
365
|
40.00%
|
| Total NOT Sold |
1204
|
1006
|
663
|
51.73%
|
| Not Sold % |
50%
|
41%
|
28%
|
46.60%
|
As you can see above, number of sales was down 16%, Avg Sold price was down 0.07% in Feb from the same month last year, median price is up 2%, and the average days on market have increased 9% while the median days on market have 26%.
And my new stat that I track each month, NOT SOLDS, increased 53% over Feb 2007. 41% of the homes that fell out of the MLS in Feb-08were expired or withdrawn instead of Sold. In Feb-07 it was 28%. So we continue to see more inventory than demand can absorb, but that can mask the fact that some areas of Austin are extremely strong still.
Below is the Year to Date chart, which of course this early in the year is simply January and February.
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