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The Crossland Team
Sylvia Crossland, Broker Steve Crossland, MPM (512) 301-5811 |
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Austin Real Estate Market Update – May 2009 Stats
June 18, 2009
The Austin real estate market continues to chug along in a manner that would be considered unimpressive if not for the fact that it was expected to be doing so much worse by so many. Average sold prices are down about 3.5% and the Median is down about 2.25%. We’ll take take that. I’m not complaining.
| Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update May 2009 | ||||
| Houses only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data | ||||
| Apr 2009 | May 2009 | May 2008 | Yr % Change | |
| # Sold | 1522 | 1610 | 2060 | -21.84% |
| Avg List | $245,130 | $268,001 | $274,380 | -2.32% |
| Med List | $198,170 | $199,970 | $203,037 | -1.51% |
| Avg Sold | $234,444 | $256,603 | $265,878 | -3.49% |
| Med Sold | $190,000 | $195,250 | $199,788 | -2.27% |
| Sold/List % | 95.64% | 95.75% | 96.90% | -1.19% |
| Avg SQFT | 2136 | 2208 | 2154 | 2.51% |
| Med SQFT | 1950 | 1989 | 1945 | 2.26% |
| Avg $ SQFT | $109.76 | $116.22 | $123.43 | -5.85% |
| Avg DOM | 74 | 75 | 61 | 22.95% |
| Median DOM | 44 | 43 | 36 | 19.44% |
| # Expired | 391 | 383 | 516 | -25.78% |
| # Withdrawn | 648 | 590 | 598 | -1.34% |
| Not Sold | 1039 | 973 | 1114 | -12.66% |
| Not Sold % | 40.57% | 37.67% | 35.10% | 7.33% |
One interesting thing to note is that the “Not Solds” have dipped down to 38%, barely higher than the 35% for the same month last year. This is the first time the Pending/Withdrawn listings (not solds) have been less than 40% of the total departing Austin MLS listings since June 2008, when they represented 37% of the departing listings. We hit 61% in Jan 2009 and 62% in Nov 2008, which meant a lot of sales efforts were ending in failure last fall and winter, but things have improved a lot since then.
Personally, Sylvia and I have 6 closings this month and we are really, really busy. It’s starting to feel like 2006/2007, but the numbers don’t look like 2006/2007. We’re running really fast on our hamster wheel, but putting together transactions that stick is as hard as ever.
Below is the Year to Date (YTD) chart for Austin, followed by several other charts and graphs that will bring you up to date on current conditions in the Austin real estate market.
Zillow Home Prices Remain a Joke for Austin TX
May 26, 2009
I just received this news flash via email from Zillow:
Home values in Austin increased 8.7%
According to the latest Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, home values in Austin increased 8.7% in the first quarter of 2009, compared to the first quarter of 2008. Nationally, home values decreased 14.2% during this same period.
Uh, sorry Zillow, but that ain’t right. The algorithms or data is being used to produce that conclusion need to be re-examined. Let’s look at some stats for Austin and surrounding areas.
Q1 2008 vs. Q1 2009
City of Austin Sales
Zillow says: Sales prices are up 8.7%
Austin MLS says: Sales prices are down 0.65%
City of Cedar Park
Zillow says: Sales prices are up 2.5%
Austin MLS says: Sales prices are down 3.9%
City of Pflugerville
Zillow says: Sales prices are up 11.5%
Austin MLS says: Sales prices are down 3.76%
You can see where this is heading. Never has it been easier for so many real estate consumers to be so misinformed about the real estate market. Don’t believe news headlines quoting any of these internet sites about values.
Shame on Zillow and these other valuation websites for getting it so wrong. What’s even sadder is that I saw in a listing the other day a Realtor comment “priced $20K below Zillow value”. Huh?
Read more
Austin Real Estate Market Update – April 2009 Sales
May 21, 2009
The median sold price for houses in Austin was up 0.56% for April compared to April 2008. The average sold price was down 3.56%. Number of sales is down 21% from a year earlier for single family homes. In short, Austin remains a stubborn real estate market for those who were expecting some sort of major decline. I would characterize it still as a soft market, with pockets and price ranges that remain strong. This is the 4th month of the past 6 that average sold prices have remained below $240K, and it’s the first time that avg sold price has stayed below $240K two months in a row.
See the chart below for the past 14 months average and median sales by month. Monthly and YTD charts are further below.
The month of April compared to a year ago breaks down as follows:
Read more
Austin Real Estate Market – March 2009 Update
April 13, 2009
The average and median sold prices in Austin are down for March 2009, which extends a streak of 7 months in a row during which average home sales prices in Austin have been up, then down, then up, from the month before. The market does seem to be establishing a slight down trend, because the bottoms keep inching lower each time, but is still bouncing up and down so much that it’s hard to know for sure where things are headed.
What’s interesting is that the swings have been so wild the past 4 months in particular, bouncing from the $230K to the $250s and back again. I’ve started keeping a chart to graph the movement.
For March, average sold price is down 3.82% from Mar a year ago and median sold price is down 3.54% from last year. Volume of sales dropped 27% for Mar compared to Mar 2008. The number of “Not Solds” (expired or withdrawn) is at 44% for March, meaning 44% of the listings that departed the MLS in March were failed sales efforts. Let’s look at the breakdown of the rest of the Austin single family home sales for Mar 2009:
• Number of homes sold is down 27% (was down 25% last month) from 1,782 Mar 2008 to 1301 Mar 2009. Note the Feb 2009 had fewer than 1,000 sold homes.
• Average list prices in Austin were down 3% over the same month last year to $247,014.
• Average sold prices in Austin were down 3.82% over the same month last year to $234,869 from $244,807 a year ago.
• Median sold price was down 3.54% to $184,000. Last year in March it was $190,745.
• Average List to Sold price ratio is 95.08%, down slightly from 95.94% the same month last year. Note that this reports the sold price compared to the last list price, not the original list price. I have run that stat lately but it’s probably in the low 90% range.
• Avg sold price per square foot is down 5.38% to $108 compared to $114 a year ago in Mar.
• Avg days on market is up 14 days (20%) from 70 last year to 84 this March.
• Median days on market is up 14 days (31%) from 45 days last year to 59 Mar this year.
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is up 20% over the same month last year, to 44% of all removed listings compared to 37% for the same month last year.
The chart below show the figures for March 2009 compared to March 2008 and Feb 2009.
Read more
Open House activity brisk in Austin and Round Rock
March 23, 2009
Steve and I have a few listings that have not had as much “traffic” as we would like, so the last few weeks I held open houses in a couple of our vacant staged listings just to get a feel for foot traffic in the neighborhoods and to hear what buyers are saying.
The first week, I held an open house at our Lost Creek listing at 1601 Bay Hill Drive. I placed several signs at the entrance to Lost Creek at Hwy 360, as well as numerous corners in Lost Creek, which brought in a lot of traffic.
The Lost Creek open house went better than I expected. There were 15 groups of people in 3 hours. It was really hopping! Normally a turnout of 5 to 8 people is considered “decent” on an open house, especially given the fact that sometimes the turnout can be zero. This was the first weekend of South by Southwest (SxSW Austin), so the atmosphere was lively and upbeat and people seemed to be enjoying being out and looking around. There were people from Denver and some from California that are planning to relocate to Austin. They all told me how “amazing” the prices are here in Austin. “Do you know how much a house like this would sell for in California?” Of course I’ve heard this before, and I know the listing I have in Lost Creek priced at $439k would be $1M+ in many parts of California.
The Lost Creek open house also drew several groups from Austin, many who are currently renting but out looking to see what’s available. Most of the attendees already have Austin agents they are working with. Of the four attendees who told me who their Austin Realtors were, I called all four agents to let them know their buyers seemed interested in the house and to invite them back for another look. I don’t know if this will produce a buyer, but I feel like I have to be doing everything I can to generate something.
My other open house was at our listing at 2512 Trailing Vine Way in Round Rock.
Read more
Austin real estate sales last 12 months
March 20, 2009
I prepared the graph below for a presentation I did last night to a local Austin real estate investor club. I’ve been commenting to buyers and sellers lately that the Austin real estate market has been “drawing W’s”, which is to say that average sold prices have been taking big swings up and down each month. I decided to put the price swings in graph form to illustrate what I’m talking about. Let’s take a look.
Do you see the W? From August to September 2008, Average sold price dropped over $10K in one month (from high $250s to mid $240s), then it rose slightly in Oct (start of W), then dropped almost $10K again in Nov from mid $240s to the $230s, then jumped over $10K in December back into the $250s, dropped over $10K in Jan back to the mid $230s, then up more than $10K again in February back into the $250s.
I asked the audience of experienced Austin investors at the meeting last night if anyone had an opinion about which direction we’ll see it go in March, and nobody claimed to know. Neither do I. But let’s look at some more stats.
Read more
Austin Real Estate Market – Feb 2009 Update
March 9, 2009
The average and median sold prices in Austin are up for February 2009. Average sold price is up 6.29% from Feb a year ago and median sold price is up 2.65% from last year. Last month (Jan 2009) you might remember sold prices had dropped about 5%. So the Austin market is “undulating” a bit, sort of like the stock market except that we’re now actually up YTD for the same period 2008 as well.
Volume of sales dropped 25% for Feb compared to Feb 2008, but that’s an improvement from the volume drop of 40% in Jan. The number of “Not Solds” (expired or withdrawn) is at 50% for February, meaning half the listings that departed the MLS were failed sales efforts. Let’s look at the breakdown of the rest of the Austin single family home sales for Feb 2009:
• Number of homes sold is down 25% (was down 40% last month) from 1,315 Feb 2008 to 989 Feb 2009.
• Average list prices in Austin were up 6.89% over the same month last year to $264,044.
• Average sold prices in Austin were up 6.29% over the same month last year to $252,132 from $237,218 a year ago.
• Median sold price was up 2.65% to $194,000. Last year in Feb it was $189,000.
• Average List to Sold price ratio is 95.49%, down slightly from 96.00% the same month last year.
• Avg sold price per square foot is up 0.18% to $114.04 compared to $113.83 a year ago in Feb.
• Avg days on market is up 12 days (18.75%) from 64 last year to 76 this November.
• Median days on market is up 15 days (20%) from 69 days last year to 83 Feb this year.
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is up 20% over the same month last year, to 50% of all removed listings compared to 42% for the same month last year. This is actually a fairly healthy drop from the 61% Not Sold ratio in Jan and the 58% in December.
Most of this is favorable, but it would be foolish to think one month means anything. We would need to see a sustained trend upward, for three months in a row leading into the summer, accompanied by better economic news nationally, before I’d get too excited about the Austin market. Still, as real estate markets go, Austin is stubborn and is hanging in there better than almost any other city in the U.S.
The stats outlined above are shown in the chart below.
| Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update | ||||
| Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data | ||||
| Jan 2009 | Feb 2009 | Feb 2008 | Yr % Change | |
| # Sold | 780 | 989 | 1315 | -24.79% |
| Avg List | $249,669 | $264,044 | $247,099 | 6.86% |
| Med List | $189,900 | $199,900 | $189,000 | 5.77% |
| Avg Sold | $235,513 | $252,132 | $237,218 | 6.29% |
| Med Sold | $180,875 | $194,000 | $189,000 | 2.65% |
| Sold/List % | 94.33% | 95.49% | 96.00% | -0.53% |
| Avg SQFT | 2173 | 2211 | 2084 | 6.09% |
| Med SQFT | 1950 | 2043 | 1907 | 7.13% |
| Avg $ SQFT | $108.38 | $114.04 | $113.83 | 0.18% |
| Avg DOM | 82 | 83 | 69 | 20.29% |
| Median DOM | 66 | 64 | 53 | 20.75% |
| # Expired | 537 | 400 | 451 | -11.31% |
| # Withdrawn | 682 | 589 | 492 | 19.72% |
| Not Sold | 1219 | 989 | 943 | 4.88% |
| Not Sold % | 60.98% | 50.00% | 41.76% | 19.72% |
The year to date chart is below, showing how we’re doing through Feb 2009 compared to Jan-Feb 2008.
Austin Real Estate Market Update and Stats – Jan 2009
February 18, 2009
Average sales values for single family homes in Austin fell 5.43% for January 2009 compared to Jan 2008. Median values fell as well, by 4.80%. Number of sales fell 40% and the number of Not Solds (expired/withdrawn) for Jan was 61% of all listings that departed the MLS. And yet, despite this, finding a “smokin’ hot deal” in Austin just ain’t that easy. Sellers are hanging tight for the most part, and simply pulkling listings from the market if they can’t get their price. Combine that with buyer reticence and we have what I’d call a “stalled” market.
It’s definately a Buyer’s market, but only for buyers willing to work hard. And sellers can sell, but many sales attempts will fail.
| Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update for January 2009 | ||||
| Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data | ||||
| Dec 2008 | Jan 2009 | Jan 2008 | Yr % Change | |
| # Sold | 1236 | 770 | 1280 | -39.84% |
| Avg List | $265,180 | $249,790 | $261,155 | -4.35% |
| Med List | $189,900 | $189,900 | $198,250 | -4.21% |
| Avg Sold | $249,718 | $235,623 | $249,164 | -5.43% |
| Med Sold | $184,000 | $180,875 | $190,000 | -4.80% |
| Sold/List % | 94.17% | 94.33% | 95.41% | -1.13% |
| Avg SQFT | 2202 | 2168 | 2160 | 0.37% |
| Med SQFT | 1981 | 1942 | 1956 | -0.72% |
| Avg $ SQFT | $113.41 | $108.68 | $115.35 | -5.78% |
| Avg DOM | 79 | 82 | 73 | 12.33% |
| Median DOM | 56 | 66 | 56 | 17.86% |
| # Expired | 849 | 532 | 577 | -7.80% |
| # Withdrawn | 836 | 688 | 621 | 10.79% |
| Not Sold | 1685 | 1220 | 1198 | 1.84% |
| Not Sold % | 57.69% | 61.31% | 48.35% | 26.81% |
One thing to note on the Not Solds data, though not shown in the chart above, is that I ran the stats for homes that listed for $200K and less, and the not solds were at 54% instead of 61%. For properties listed for more than $200K, the not solds were 68% of all listings, meaning 68% of all listings that departed the MLS in January we failed sales attempts. That’s simply a super high ratio, and something serious sellers would be dumb to ignore when deciding on preperation and pricing strategy.
Let’s look now at the breakout of what is selling by price range, and current months inventory. This will show number of sold for the different price ranges, Days on Market (DOM), number of currently active listings, and the number of months it would take to absorb the current inventory based on the trailing 3 month sales rate.
Austin Real Estate Market Update – Dec 2008 and Year End
January 14, 2009
The Austin real estate market for December 2008 ended better than I predicted. The Austin market held up well throughout 2008, all things considered, and within the context of the national economic climate and the fierce headwinds created by fear and negative consumer sentiment. Before we get into the December stats, the YTD stats and the MLS area breakdowns, let’s take a quick look at the graph below to get a perspective on how the Austin real estate market has performed since 1999.
As you can see above, even though 2008 is down a bit from 2007, it’s not anywhere near the nose dive that most of the rest of the country has experienced. In fact, viewed on the 9 year graph, the small dip is no big deal. It has to be noted that both 2006 and 2007 saw price appreciation of just below 10%, both years setting new record high prices in Austin. Each succeeding year cannot be a new record. Real Estate markets do not produce straight upward sloping lines over time, nor should that be the expectation, so it somewhat puzzles me the degree of concern we hear from buyers and sellers when the market does what it’s suppose to do, but that’s what we’re hearing a lot of lately.
Relax, 2009 may be slightly down as well. But real estate is a long term investment, not a lottery ticket or an ATM machine, as folks came to view it during the early through mid 2000’s. Moving on. Below is the December 2008 stats summary as well as the 2008 vs. 2007 sales comparison and breakdowns by MLS area. First, let’s see how December did. Read more
Austin Real Estate Market Update – Nov 2008 Sales
December 22, 2008
The sales volume in Austin fell of a cliff for November, with only 914 sales of single family homes. That represents a 43% decline in the number of homes sold. The number of “Not Solds” (expired or withdrawn) took a big jump also, to 62% of all listings that departed the Austin MLS in November. If you remember last month’s market update, I predicted the Not Solds will hit 70% in December 2008. November stats haven’t changed my mind.
Let’s look at the breakdown of Austin single family home sales for November 2008:
• Number of homes sold is down 43% (was down 28% last month) from 1,594 Nov 2007 to 914 Nov 2008.
• Average list prices in Austin were down 5.29% over the same month last year to $250,609. This means sellers/agent are doing a better job of pricing the home correctly out of the gate.
• Average sold prices in Austin were down 6.17% over the same month last year to $238,072 from $253,718 a year ago. So, list prices are down 5% but sold prices are down 6%, which tells me sellers are still chasing the market down.
• Median sold price was down 1.87% to $185,000. Last year in Nov it was $188,527. Median prices had been holding their own each month this year, so the downturn in this particular metric is something new.
• Average List to Sold price ratio is 95.00%, down from 95.89% the same month last year, again demonstrating that sellers are still chasing the market down.
• Avg sold price per square foot is down 7.41% to $109 compared to $118 a year ago in November. This is a huge drop.
• Avg days on market is up 12 days (18.75%) from 64 last year to 76 this November.
• Median days on market is up 11 days (24%) from 45 days last year to 56 this year.
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is up 43% over the same month last year, to 63% of all removed listings compared to 46% for the same month last year.
None of this is favorable if what we want is a normal, rising market, but in the context of elswhere in the country, it’s actually pretty good.
The stats outlined above are shown in the chart below.
| Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update – Nov 2008 Sales | ||||
| Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data | ||||
| Oct 2008 | Nov 2008 | Nov 2007 | Yr % Change | |
| # Sold | 1249 | 914 | 1594 | -42.66% |
| Avg List | $258,869 | $250,609 | $264,601 | -5.29% |
| Med List | $199,900 | $192,000 | $195,955 | -2.02% |
| Avg Sold | $247,383 | $238,072 | $253,718 | -6.17% |
| Med Sold | $195,500 | $185,000 | $188,527 | -1.87% |
| Sold/List % | 95.56% | 95.00% | 95.89% | -0.93% |
| Avg SQFT | 2160 | 2180 | 2151 | 1.35% |
| Med SQFT | 1988 | 1984 | 1952 | 1.64% |
| Avg $ SQFT | $114.53 | $109.21 | $117.95 | -7.41% |
| Avg DOM | 69 | 76 | 64 | 18.75% |
| Median DOM | 50 | 56 | 45 | 24.44% |
| # Expired | 667 | 662 | 558 | 18.64% |
| # Withdrawn | 1068 | 833 | 810 | 2.84% |
| Not Sold | 1735 | 1495 | 1368 | 9.28% |
| Not Sold % | 58.14% | 62.06% | 46.19% | 34.37% |
So, are these grim numbers cause for alarm? Not at all, and here’s why.
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