austin economy 3 - Crossland Real Estate

Austin Real Estate Market Update – June 2009 Stats

We’re at mid-year (June 2009 stats) for the Austin real estate market stats, and still the Austin real estate market is hanging tough. We continue to see stubborn bouncing up and down from month to month, as the graph to the left shows (click to enlarge), but the overall yearly trend is holding steady at around 3% below last year’s YTD.

Let’s look at the breakdown of the Austin single family home sales for June 2009:

• Number of homes sold is down 9% (was down 27% last month) from 2,178 June 2008 to 1,986 June 2009. This is a small decline compared to what we’ve been seeing for the past year, in which most months decline by more than 20% over the year before.

• Average list prices in Austin were down 2% over the same month last year to $265,868.
• Average sold prices in Austin were down 2.9% over the same month last year to $254,924 from $262,512 last year.
• Median sold price was up slightly (0.11%) to $200,500. Last year in June it was $200,278.
• Average List to Sold price ratio is 95.88%, down slightly from 96.40% the same month last year. Note that this reports the sold price compared to the last list price, not the original list price.
• Avg sold price per square foot is down almost 7% to $115 compared to $123 a year ago in Mar.
• Avg days on market is up 16 days (26%) from 61 last year to 77 this June.
• Median days on market is up 14 days (33%) from 36 days last year to 48 June this year.
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is down 12% over the same month last year, to 34% of all removed listings compared to 36% for the same month last year.

The chart below shows the June stats for 2009/2008, plus last month’s stats.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	May 2009	Jun 2009	June 2008	Yr % Change
# Sold	2060	1986	2178	-8.82%
Avg List	$274,380	$265,868	$272,312	-2.37%
Med List	$203,037	$207,000	$208,250	-0.60%
Avg Sold	$265,878	$254,924	$262,512	-2.89%
Med Sold	$199,788	$200,500	$200,278	0.11%
Sold/List %	96.90%	95.88%	96.40%	-0.54%
Avg SQFT	2154	2224	2135	4.17%
Med SQFT	1945	2016	1955	3.12%
Avg $ SQFT	$123.43	$114.62	$122.96	-6.78%
Avg DOM	61	77	61	26.23%
Median DOM	36	48	36	33.33%
# Expired	516	390	530	-26.42%
# Withdrawn	598	679	691	-1.74%
Not Sold	1114	1069	1221	-12.45%
Not Sold %	35.10%	34.99%	35.92%	-2.59%

Below is the Year to data stats for the Austin sales market.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – May 2009 Stats

by Steve Crossland

The Austin real estate market continues to chug along in a manner that would be considered unimpressive if not for the fact that it was expected to be doing so much worse by so many. Average sold prices are down about 3.5% and the Median is down about 2.25%. We’ll take take that. I’m not complaining.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update May 2009
Houses only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	Apr 2009	May 2009	May 2008	Yr % Change
# Sold	1522	1610	2060	-21.84%
Avg List	$245,130	$268,001	$274,380	-2.32%
Med List	$198,170	$199,970	$203,037	-1.51%
Avg Sold	$234,444	$256,603	$265,878	-3.49%
Med Sold	$190,000	$195,250	$199,788	-2.27%
Sold/List %	95.64%	95.75%	96.90%	-1.19%
Avg SQFT	2136	2208	2154	2.51%
Med SQFT	1950	1989	1945	2.26%
Avg $ SQFT	$109.76	$116.22	$123.43	-5.85%
Avg DOM	74	75	61	22.95%
Median DOM	44	43	36	19.44%
# Expired	391	383	516	-25.78%
# Withdrawn	648	590	598	-1.34%
Not Sold	1039	973	1114	-12.66%
Not Sold %	40.57%	37.67%	35.10%	7.33%

One interesting thing to note is that the “Not Solds” have dipped down to 38%, barely higher than the 35% for the same month last year. This is the first time the Pending/Withdrawn listings (not solds) have been less than 40% of the total departing Austin MLS listings since June 2008, when they represented 37% of the departing listings. We hit 61% in Jan 2009 and 62% in Nov 2008, which meant a lot of sales efforts were ending in failure last fall and winter, but things have improved a lot since then.

Personally, Sylvia and I have 6 closings this month and we are really, really busy. It’s starting to feel like 2006/2007, but the numbers don’t look like 2006/2007. We’re running really fast on our hamster wheel, but putting together transactions that stick is as hard as ever.

Below is the Year to Date (YTD) chart for Austin, followed by several other charts and graphs that will bring you up to date on current conditions in the Austin real estate market.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – April 2009 Sales

by Steve Crossland

The median sold price for houses in Austin was up 0.56% for April compared to April 2008. The average sold price was down 3.56%. Number of sales is down 21% from a year earlier for single family homes. In short, Austin remains a stubborn real estate market for those who were expecting some sort of major decline. I would characterize it still as a soft market, with pockets and price ranges that remain strong. This is the 4th month of the past 6 that average sold prices have remained below $240K, and it’s the first time that avg sold price has stayed below $240K two months in a row.

See the chart below for the past 14 months average and median sales by month. Monthly and YTD charts are further below.

Austin Sales Market History

The month of April compared to a year ago breaks down as follows:

Austin Rental Market Update – March 2009

by Steve Crossland

Average rents in Austin have taken a slight dip for the first quarter of 2009. The number of rented homes is up 11% over the same three months a year ago, no doubt due to the fact that many sellers are opting to rent instead of dropping prices below their bottom dollar. This creates additional rental inventory, which gives renters more homes to choose from, and prevents prices from increasing.

Personally, I’ve leased 4 or 5 homes in the past 2 months, and the market is really spotty. One house I leased central received 4 applications in 2 days. Another one I leased north central leased immediately for $1,650 a year ago, but took about 45 days to lease for $1,595 this year. Another one in Western Oaks leased for $1,550 (same amount as last year) in about a week. A different home in Western Oaks, also listed at $1,550, and newer and in better condition, has not received any showings in more than a week. It’s not an easy market to predict right now, much like the sales market.

The stats chart is below, followed by the 1999-2009 Austin leasing history graph.

Austin Real Estate Rental Market Update Q1 2009 Jan-Mar
Houses only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	Oct-Dec 2008	Jan-Mar 2009	Jan-Mar 2008	Yr % Change
# Rented	1878	1979	1782	11.05%
Avg List	$1,407	$1,382	$1,393	-0.79%
Med List	$1,250	$1,225	$1,250	-2.00%
Avg Rent	$1,390	$1,364	$1,384	-1.45%
Med Rent	$1,225	$1,200	$1,225	-2.04%
Rent/List %	98.79%	98.70%	99.35%	-0.66%
Avg SQFT	1934	1930	1919	0.57%
Med SQFT	1794	1798	1799	-0.06%
Avg $ SQFT	$0.72	$0.71	$0.72	-2.01%
Avg DOM	42	50	41	21.95%
Median DOM	33	40	29	37.93%
# Expired	293	206	183	12.57%
# Withdrawn	513	458	350	30.86%
Not Rented	806	664	533	24.58%
Not Rented %	30.03%	25.12%	23.02%	9.12%

As noted in the chart above, average rents in Austin (for single family homes) are $1,364/mo., down 1.45% from $1,384/mo. the same quarter 2008. Median price has fallen from $1,225 a year ago to $1,200 this year, meaning half of all homes in Austin rented for $1200 or less.

Below is a graphical representation of the Austin rental market from 1999 through March 2009.

Austin Economic Forecast for 2009/2010

by Steve Crossland

I’ll be attending the Angelou Economics Austin Economic Forecast today, hosted by the Oak Hill Business and Professional Association. This is a rerun of the presentation presented earlier in the year (but which costs $270 to attend). The power points and information are posted up on the Angelou website, but I always appreciate the question and answer dialog that occurs at the live presentation.

Most interesting for me, and I think others who attend each year, is the perspective gained on how well Austin really is doing relative to just about anywhere else in the country. Yes, our real estate market has slowed down, though mostly in the upper price ranges. Yes, unemployment has risen, though still lower than Texas or the Nation. Yes, there have been layoffs, though job growth remains slightly positive and will improve again in 2010. But compared to any place else in the U.S., Austin is chugging along very well. Check the links below for the data.

Austin Continues to be Economic Top Performer Nationwide

by Steve Crossland

The Austin Metro area ranks 4th among the country’s largest metropolitan areas on the Milken Institute and Greenstreet Real Estate Partners’ 2008 Best Performing Cities list. Texas as a whole did well, with Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Killeen, and McAllen joining Austin in the top 25 of large metro areas. The top “small metro” area in the country was Midland TX.

Last year Austin ranked number 20 on the list. The list ranks cities according to metrics such as job creation and salary and technology growth.

Is there are corelation between the economic strength of a metro area and its real estate market? Of course there is. Absent the type of speculation that happened in cities like Merced California, a metro area must have solid job growth and positive net migration figures in order to generate the kind of market buyer demand that sustains or propels a real estate market.

Remember, Texas had a soft economy and no real estate price run up during the early/mid 2000’s, and Texas had a relatively low percentage of sub-prime loans, compared to the areas in the U.S. that saw crazy real estate appreciation during those same years. Those 4 years of zero appreciation in Austin from 2001 through most of 2005 are looking pretty good in retrospect. Bleeding out 30,000+ jobs in 2002/2003 was tough medicine back then, but makes for a healthier economy today.

Let’s take a look at some of the cities on the list compared to the real estate markets they are experiencing.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – June 2009 Stats

Austin Real Estate Market Update – May 2009 Stats

Austin Real Estate Market Update – April 2009 Sales

Austin Rental Market Update – March 2009

Austin Economic Forecast for 2009/2010

Austin Continues to be Economic Top Performer Nationwide

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