austin homes 3 - Crossland Real Estate

Tax Credit Effect on Austin Real Estate Market

The $8,000 buyer tax credit ended April 30, 2010. Take a look at the following graph to see the effect the tax credit had on buyer activity in Austin TX. This shows Pending activity for Austin MLS listings going back to Jan 2005 through April 2010. The green line is 2010. The previous years of 2007, 2008, 2009 are represented by the other colored lines.

I used Pending listings because a lot of the April Pending sales haven’t closed yet, but anything that qualified for the tax credit would have to be Pending by April 30th, so this gives us a sneak peek at what the sales data will look like for May closed sales.

A couple of interesting things to note here. I went back to 2007 because that was the peak year for Austin. As you can see on the chart, April Pending listings exceeded the peak year of 2007 for April. I suspect we’ve never experienced an April in Austin where almost 3,000 homes received accepted offers.What does this mean for the future?

The Government Has Made Me Stupid About Real Estate

by Steve Crossland

As we head into the final weekend preceding the final work week of April, and the $8,000 1st time homebuyer tax credit winds down (thank God), I’m seeing a surge of new Austin real estate listings coming on the market each day as well as a huge increase in the number of showings for most of our own listings.

In other words, supply and demand are in a foot race with each other, and both have kicked in the after-burners.

This has caused us, as real estate agents, to behave in abnormal ways as we advise buyers and sellers. I had to tell a seller last week, “I think it’s better that we get your home on the market right away in ‘good enough’ condition rather than burn up a week of market time putting it into ‘perfect’ condition”. Mainly, I didn’t want to burn through one of only two remaining weekends waiting for new flooring to be installed or our professional stager and photographer to do their thing.

Instead, Sylvia staged the house herself, the seller bought some mulch and plants, we left some worn out old sheet vinyl on the kitchen floor, didn’t have the carpets shampooed, and I took my own photos, which look ok but not great. We got that sucker listed and in the MLS 2 days after I first met the seller at the property. Met on a Monday, had it in the MLS on Wednesday. Had our first offer that weekend, though that one didn’t pan out because it was too low.

Why the rush, and is this the right thing to do? I don’t know.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – December 2009

by Steve Crossland

The Austin real estate market ended 2009 on an up note, with both average and median sold prices up more than 5% over Dec 2008. Oh, but wait … December 2008 was a dismal month because we all still thought the financial world was falling off a cliff. But the stats are what they are so let’s have a look.

Number of homes sold is down 4.39% from a year ago, which is a small decrease compared to the numbers we were seeing earlier this year. Average list price is up 3.71% to $276,387, Median List Price is up 5.22% to $199,900, Average sold price is up 5.15%, Median sold is up 5.39%, the Sold/List % is up 1.39% to 95.54%. And Average Price per Square Foot of sold homes is also up, by 1.11%, to $115.36.

Average Days on Market was up about 4% to 82 days, but Median Days on Market was down 14% to 48 days. The number of Not Sold was down also, though at 56% still a big number, but that’s normal for December when lots of sellers give up for the holidays.

Here is the chart showing Nov/Dec 2009 and Dec 2008 sales stats.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update December 2009 Sales
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	Nov 2009	Dec 2009	Dec 2008	Yr % Change
# Sold	1515	1219	1275	-4.39%
Avg List	$252,963	$276,387	$266,498	3.71%
Med List	$185,000	$199,900	$189,990	5.22%
Avg Sold	$242,349	$264,061	$251,128	5.15%
Med Sold	$180,000	$194,858	$184,900	5.39%
Sold/List %	95.80%	95.54%	94.23%	1.39%
Avg SQFT	2113	2289	2201	4.00%
Med SQFT	1896	2050	1981	3.48%
Avg $ SQFT	$114.69	$115.36	$114.10	1.11%
Avg DOM	73	82	79	3.80%
Median DOM	44	48	56	-14.29%
# Expired	474	854	866	-1.39%
# Withdrawn	832	699	851	-17.86%
Not Sold	1306	1553	1717	-9.55%
Not Sold %	46.30%	56.02%	57.39%	-2.37%

So, that’s a bunch of numbers, but what does it all mean? Is the Austin real estate market rebounding from the slight decline of 2009? I think it is. 2010 will be better than 2009 for sellers. Buyers will still find plenty of good opportunities though.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – Nov 2009

by Steve Crossland

Maybe I should start terming my Austin real estate market update blogs “Austin Real Estate Market, as Influenced by the Federal Government”. Indeed, the word “market” does need an asterisk next to it for the Sept-Nov time frame in Austin. Instead of taking its natural course, whatever that might have been, the lower end of the market was stimulated by government incentives for the Latter part of 2009 through November, and the sub-$200K buyers responded. Thus we see on the graph below the drastic drop in the average and median sold price for November 2009 as the final batch of first time home buyer tax credit sales closed.

It’s not hard to see what the real estate market is doing, but it is hard to know for sure why it’s doing it, or, that is, to what extent the number of sales (way up) and the average/median values (down) are influenced by these the artificially low interest rates and the buyer incentives, both being caused by government intervention in the market. Some economist believe that once these stimulus measures peter out, as they will later this year, the national real estate market is in for another big drop in prices as foreclosures will snowball to the highest levels we’ve seen yet.

So what does all of this mean for Austin? Is Austin real estate in generally good enough shape to ride it out better than most markets? I think so. Let’s have a look at the November stats.

Austin Real Estate Sale Stats by MLS Area – Sept 2009 YTD

by Steve Crossland

Austin’s real estate market is a “market of markets”, and thus the overall news reported about real estate activity in the Austin Metro area may or may not be reflective of conditions in the specific area in which you live, or the home you own, or the home you want to buy. Each quarter I break down the Austin Real Estate market year-to-date stats into MLS area-specific comparisons of the year before so we can take a look at the variations among different pockets of Austin.

If you follow these quarterly Austin MLS breakdowns, you know that there is always variation among different MLS areas and price ranges, for better or worse. This Year-to-Date report through Sept 2009 is a head scratcher for me though, mainly because the number of Austin MLS areas that normally outperform the overall market has dwindled substantially. Based on what Sylvia and I are experiencing in the field, I would have guessed the opposite to be true. And the market overall is holding up.

But here’s what I’m talking about …

Of the 44 Austin Metro MLS areas tracked below…
5 Austin MLS areas had an increase in average sold prices (3 months ago it was 11)
7 Austin MLS areas had an increase in median sold prices (3 months ago it was 11)
1 Austin MLS area had an increase in average sold price per square foot (3 months ago it was 7).
4 of the Austin MLS areas saw a decrease in average days on market (same as 3 months ago)
7 of the Austin MLS areas saw a decrease in median days on market (3 months ago it was 6).
1 (only 1) Austin MLS area saw an increase in the three main pricing metrics – avg and median sold, and price per square foot. Three areas were in this clug at mid-year.

So does this mean the Austin real estate market is getting worse? As usual, it depends. From a statistical standpoint, more areas are trending down than up. But if you ask Sylvia and I if we’re busy, yes we are. We had 4 closings in October and three on the board already for November, which is unusual for the slow season. On the other hand, if you ask an agent who specializes in luxury homes in Lakeway, they will probably say things are dismal. And I do in fact have a listing on 10 acres in Dripping Springs that isn’t getting any showings even though we think it’s under priced.

Add in the government interference/intervention in normal real estate market activity with the tax credit incentives, the nervous jitters of the stock market, artificially low interest rates, appraisal issues, and what we have is a number of variables pulling and tugging with and against one another. Bottom line, overall, at 3% down for the year on average sold price and about even on medial sold price, Austin’s market is doing about what we think it should, as a whole. It’s just interesting to see all the underlying cross currents.

That said, below is the breakdown summary, then you can study the chart yourself and see how your areas of interest are doing. As usual, questions and comments are welcome.

Austin Real Estate Market Update for August 2009 Sales

by Steve Crossland

Austin Real Estate values for August 2009 are down about 5% from the same month last year. Average sales prices for the 1,657 houses that sold are down 5.12%. Median sold prices are down 4.80%. The number of houses sold is down 15% from August 2008, which is less of a decrease than we’ve seen for most of the past 12+ months. The sold to list price gap is 96%, which is the same as a year ago and the same as last month. The average list price was $257K and the average sold price $247K, so the average home is selling for about $10K below the final list price. Note that this measures the gap only between the last list price, not the original list price. Unfortunately I have to work harder to obtain the ration of sold to original list price so I don’t calculate it monthly, but my best guess is that it’s probably somewhere between 90% to 92%.

The Days on Market keep climbing, now at 73 days average and 43 days median on market. Even though that’s higher than last year, those are still fairl decent DOM numbers.

The Not Solds (Expired and Withdrawn listings) continue to be fairly high at 45%. This means that of all the listings that departed the MLS in August (no longer Active for Sale), 45% of the listings departed as failed sales efforts. This tells us what we already know, which is that many sellers are not desperate and they refuse to drop their list price below whatever mental threshhold they’ve established, regardless of what the market data says. This in turn is keeping our sold prices reasonably stable but also may be creating a shadow inventory of pent up future listings that will come online in the next 2 or 3 years once seller perceive a better selling environment.

Below is the chart comparing August with the month and year before. Further below is the usual collection of monthly charts and graphs.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update August 2009
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	Jul 2009	Aug 2009	Aug 2008	Yr % Change
# Sold	1972	1657	1948	-14.94%
Avg List	$258,562	$256,663	$270,759	-5.21%
Med List	$199,900	$197,500	$206,352	-4.29%
Avg Sold	$248,984	$247,072	$260,411	-5.12%
Med Sold	$195,000	$190,400	$200,000	-4.80%
Sold/List %	96.30%	96.26%	96.18%	0.09%
Avg SQFT	2184	2199	2191	0.37%
Med SQFT	1981	1971	1992	-1.05%
Avg $ SQFT	$114.00	$112.36	$118.85	-5.47%
Avg DOM	70	73	64	14.06%
Median DOM	44	43	44	-2.27%
# Expired	476	491	740	-33.65%
# Withdrawn	825	900	876	2.74%
Not Sold	1301	1391	1616	-13.92%
Not Sold %	39.75%	45.64%	45.34%	0.65%

Next is the Year to data chart showing how our Austin real estate market is doing compared to the market at the same point in 2008.

Tax Credit Effect on Austin Real Estate Market

The Government Has Made Me Stupid About Real Estate

Austin Real Estate Market Update – December 2009

Austin Real Estate Market Update – Nov 2009

Austin Real Estate Sale Stats by MLS Area – Sept 2009 YTD

Austin Real Estate Market Update for August 2009 Sales

SPEAK TO AN AGENT NOW

CALL 512-327-3900

Find out what your neighbor’s home sold for!