austin sales stats 2 - Crossland Real Estate

Austin Real Estate Sale Stats by MLS Area – Sept 2009 YTD

Austin’s real estate market is a “market of markets”, and thus the overall news reported about real estate activity in the Austin Metro area may or may not be reflective of conditions in the specific area in which you live, or the home you own, or the home you want to buy. Each quarter I break down the Austin Real Estate market year-to-date stats into MLS area-specific comparisons of the year before so we can take a look at the variations among different pockets of Austin.

If you follow these quarterly Austin MLS breakdowns, you know that there is always variation among different MLS areas and price ranges, for better or worse. This Year-to-Date report through Sept 2009 is a head scratcher for me though, mainly because the number of Austin MLS areas that normally outperform the overall market has dwindled substantially. Based on what Sylvia and I are experiencing in the field, I would have guessed the opposite to be true. And the market overall is holding up.

But here’s what I’m talking about …

Of the 44 Austin Metro MLS areas tracked below…
5 Austin MLS areas had an increase in average sold prices (3 months ago it was 11)
7 Austin MLS areas had an increase in median sold prices (3 months ago it was 11)
1 Austin MLS area had an increase in average sold price per square foot (3 months ago it was 7).
4 of the Austin MLS areas saw a decrease in average days on market (same as 3 months ago)
7 of the Austin MLS areas saw a decrease in median days on market (3 months ago it was 6).
1 (only 1) Austin MLS area saw an increase in the three main pricing metrics – avg and median sold, and price per square foot. Three areas were in this clug at mid-year.

So does this mean the Austin real estate market is getting worse? As usual, it depends. From a statistical standpoint, more areas are trending down than up. But if you ask Sylvia and I if we’re busy, yes we are. We had 4 closings in October and three on the board already for November, which is unusual for the slow season. On the other hand, if you ask an agent who specializes in luxury homes in Lakeway, they will probably say things are dismal. And I do in fact have a listing on 10 acres in Dripping Springs that isn’t getting any showings even though we think it’s under priced.

Add in the government interference/intervention in normal real estate market activity with the tax credit incentives, the nervous jitters of the stock market, artificially low interest rates, appraisal issues, and what we have is a number of variables pulling and tugging with and against one another. Bottom line, overall, at 3% down for the year on average sold price and about even on medial sold price, Austin’s market is doing about what we think it should, as a whole. It’s just interesting to see all the underlying cross currents.

That said, below is the breakdown summary, then you can study the chart yourself and see how your areas of interest are doing. As usual, questions and comments are welcome.

Austin Real Estate Market Update for August 2009 Sales

by Steve Crossland

Austin Real Estate values for August 2009 are down about 5% from the same month last year. Average sales prices for the 1,657 houses that sold are down 5.12%. Median sold prices are down 4.80%. The number of houses sold is down 15% from August 2008, which is less of a decrease than we’ve seen for most of the past 12+ months. The sold to list price gap is 96%, which is the same as a year ago and the same as last month. The average list price was $257K and the average sold price $247K, so the average home is selling for about $10K below the final list price. Note that this measures the gap only between the last list price, not the original list price. Unfortunately I have to work harder to obtain the ration of sold to original list price so I don’t calculate it monthly, but my best guess is that it’s probably somewhere between 90% to 92%.

The Days on Market keep climbing, now at 73 days average and 43 days median on market. Even though that’s higher than last year, those are still fairl decent DOM numbers.

The Not Solds (Expired and Withdrawn listings) continue to be fairly high at 45%. This means that of all the listings that departed the MLS in August (no longer Active for Sale), 45% of the listings departed as failed sales efforts. This tells us what we already know, which is that many sellers are not desperate and they refuse to drop their list price below whatever mental threshhold they’ve established, regardless of what the market data says. This in turn is keeping our sold prices reasonably stable but also may be creating a shadow inventory of pent up future listings that will come online in the next 2 or 3 years once seller perceive a better selling environment.

Below is the chart comparing August with the month and year before. Further below is the usual collection of monthly charts and graphs.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update August 2009
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	Jul 2009	Aug 2009	Aug 2008	Yr % Change
# Sold	1972	1657	1948	-14.94%
Avg List	$258,562	$256,663	$270,759	-5.21%
Med List	$199,900	$197,500	$206,352	-4.29%
Avg Sold	$248,984	$247,072	$260,411	-5.12%
Med Sold	$195,000	$190,400	$200,000	-4.80%
Sold/List %	96.30%	96.26%	96.18%	0.09%
Avg SQFT	2184	2199	2191	0.37%
Med SQFT	1981	1971	1992	-1.05%
Avg $ SQFT	$114.00	$112.36	$118.85	-5.47%
Avg DOM	70	73	64	14.06%
Median DOM	44	43	44	-2.27%
# Expired	476	491	740	-33.65%
# Withdrawn	825	900	876	2.74%
Not Sold	1301	1391	1616	-13.92%
Not Sold %	39.75%	45.64%	45.34%	0.65%

Next is the Year to data chart showing how our Austin real estate market is doing compared to the market at the same point in 2008.

Austin Real Estate Stats – 2009 Midyear Breakdown by Austin MLS Area

by Steve Crossland

Below are the Austin real estate market mid-year stats broken down by MLS area. I break the stats down by area each quarter because the macro stats I post each month don’t tell the entire story of our market. Location and price range factors are important, so each quarter I break down the overall stats into the specific MLS areas and compare them to the same time period (first 6 months of the year in this case) from the year before. You can check the areas in which you are interested to see how they are holding up, but even within each area there are pockets and submarkets that will defy the greater trends, for better or worse. Here is a quick summary.

For all of Austin, per my previous stats post a couple of days ago, the average sales price is down about 3% and the median sales price for all of Austin MLS sales combined is up slightly (0.08%). Not bad when viewed in context.

Of the 44 Austin Metro MLS areas tracked below…
11 had an increase in average sold prices, exactly 1/4 of all areas.
11 also had an increase in median sold prices (though not the same exact 11)
7 of the MLS area saw an increase in average sold price per square foot.
4 of the areas saw a decrease in days on market (homes selling faster)
6 of the areas saw a decrease in median days on market.
3 areas saw an increase in the three main metrics – avg and median sold, and price per square foot – areas 7 (South/Central/Zilker), 8W (Westlake/Eanes), and area SC (far southeast Caldwell County). I think SC is an anomoly because I know of nothing that would be driving demand way out there.

The fastest selling areas are 5E (East) SE (S. East), 10S (South) and NW (Northwest), all of which had average sold days of 51.
The slowest selling areas, all having average days on market greater that 100 are areas 1B (Central/Tarrytowm – 118), GTW (Georgetwon West – 114), HD (Dripping Springs – 118), LN (Lake North – 131), LS (Lake South/Lakeway – 122), PF (Pflugerville – 114), RN (River North/Steiner Ranch – 102).

As you can see, these slower selling areas are scattered to the four corners of Austin, and central. Interestingly, area 7, adjacent to 1B, is a fast selling area. We can generally say though that all of faster selling areas are closer in and most of the slower selling areas are further out, which is what I’d expect.

OK, on to the chart below. If you are unfamiliar with Austin MLS Areas, a map is at the bottom of the chart. As usual questions and comments are welcome.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – June 2009 Stats

by Steve Crossland

We’re at mid-year (June 2009 stats) for the Austin real estate market stats, and still the Austin real estate market is hanging tough. We continue to see stubborn bouncing up and down from month to month, as the graph to the left shows (click to enlarge), but the overall yearly trend is holding steady at around 3% below last year’s YTD.

Let’s look at the breakdown of the Austin single family home sales for June 2009:

• Number of homes sold is down 9% (was down 27% last month) from 2,178 June 2008 to 1,986 June 2009. This is a small decline compared to what we’ve been seeing for the past year, in which most months decline by more than 20% over the year before.

• Average list prices in Austin were down 2% over the same month last year to $265,868.
• Average sold prices in Austin were down 2.9% over the same month last year to $254,924 from $262,512 last year.
• Median sold price was up slightly (0.11%) to $200,500. Last year in June it was $200,278.
• Average List to Sold price ratio is 95.88%, down slightly from 96.40% the same month last year. Note that this reports the sold price compared to the last list price, not the original list price.
• Avg sold price per square foot is down almost 7% to $115 compared to $123 a year ago in Mar.
• Avg days on market is up 16 days (26%) from 61 last year to 77 this June.
• Median days on market is up 14 days (33%) from 36 days last year to 48 June this year.
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is down 12% over the same month last year, to 34% of all removed listings compared to 36% for the same month last year.

The chart below shows the June stats for 2009/2008, plus last month’s stats.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	May 2009	Jun 2009	June 2008	Yr % Change
# Sold	2060	1986	2178	-8.82%
Avg List	$274,380	$265,868	$272,312	-2.37%
Med List	$203,037	$207,000	$208,250	-0.60%
Avg Sold	$265,878	$254,924	$262,512	-2.89%
Med Sold	$199,788	$200,500	$200,278	0.11%
Sold/List %	96.90%	95.88%	96.40%	-0.54%
Avg SQFT	2154	2224	2135	4.17%
Med SQFT	1945	2016	1955	3.12%
Avg $ SQFT	$123.43	$114.62	$122.96	-6.78%
Avg DOM	61	77	61	26.23%
Median DOM	36	48	36	33.33%
# Expired	516	390	530	-26.42%
# Withdrawn	598	679	691	-1.74%
Not Sold	1114	1069	1221	-12.45%
Not Sold %	35.10%	34.99%	35.92%	-2.59%

Below is the Year to data stats for the Austin sales market.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – May 2009 Stats

by Steve Crossland

The Austin real estate market continues to chug along in a manner that would be considered unimpressive if not for the fact that it was expected to be doing so much worse by so many. Average sold prices are down about 3.5% and the Median is down about 2.25%. We’ll take take that. I’m not complaining.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update May 2009
Houses only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	Apr 2009	May 2009	May 2008	Yr % Change
# Sold	1522	1610	2060	-21.84%
Avg List	$245,130	$268,001	$274,380	-2.32%
Med List	$198,170	$199,970	$203,037	-1.51%
Avg Sold	$234,444	$256,603	$265,878	-3.49%
Med Sold	$190,000	$195,250	$199,788	-2.27%
Sold/List %	95.64%	95.75%	96.90%	-1.19%
Avg SQFT	2136	2208	2154	2.51%
Med SQFT	1950	1989	1945	2.26%
Avg $ SQFT	$109.76	$116.22	$123.43	-5.85%
Avg DOM	74	75	61	22.95%
Median DOM	44	43	36	19.44%
# Expired	391	383	516	-25.78%
# Withdrawn	648	590	598	-1.34%
Not Sold	1039	973	1114	-12.66%
Not Sold %	40.57%	37.67%	35.10%	7.33%

One interesting thing to note is that the “Not Solds” have dipped down to 38%, barely higher than the 35% for the same month last year. This is the first time the Pending/Withdrawn listings (not solds) have been less than 40% of the total departing Austin MLS listings since June 2008, when they represented 37% of the departing listings. We hit 61% in Jan 2009 and 62% in Nov 2008, which meant a lot of sales efforts were ending in failure last fall and winter, but things have improved a lot since then.

Personally, Sylvia and I have 6 closings this month and we are really, really busy. It’s starting to feel like 2006/2007, but the numbers don’t look like 2006/2007. We’re running really fast on our hamster wheel, but putting together transactions that stick is as hard as ever.

Below is the Year to Date (YTD) chart for Austin, followed by several other charts and graphs that will bring you up to date on current conditions in the Austin real estate market.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – Sept 2008

by Steve Crossland

September Austin real estate stats are below. Average and median prices are doing what they’ve been doing most of the year, which is treading water, trending down somewhat, but most notable is that the expired and withdrawns continue to rise, and for September moved past the 50% mark, meaning over half of the homes that departed the MLS in September did not sell.

Here is a summary of the numbers, followed by charts below.
Here is a quick summary of the September 2008 sales stats stats:

• Number of homes sold is down 14% (24% last month) from 1,763 Sep 2007 to 1,512 Sep 2008. (This represents a decrease in the slowing of sales)
• Average list prices in Austin were down 3.62% over the same month last year to $257,761.
• Average sold prices in Austin were down 3.65% over the same month last year to $248,026.
• Median sold price was flat at 0%, remaining at $185,000.
• Average List to Sold price about even with last year at 96.25%, down from 96.25% last year.
• Avg sold price per square foot is down 4.33% to $116 compared to $122 a year ago in Sept.
• Avg days on market is up 11 days (20%) from 56 last year to 67 this September.
• Median days on market is up 11 days (30%) from 37 days last year to 48 this year.
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is up 28% over the same month last year, to 53% of all removed listings.

So, while the numbers are trending downward, they continue to hold somewhat steady as a large amount of inventory simply goes away each month, leaving the homes that actually sell to paint a somewhat better picture of the market than the average seller experiences.

Below are the stats in chart format. The year to date stats are further below. I’m about half way through my quarterly compliation of the MLS area breakdown for YTD sales in Austin, and will post that in a separate blog post later this week.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update for Sept 2008
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	Aug 2008	Sep 2008	Sep 2007	Yr % Change
# Sold	1837	1512	1763	-14.24%
Avg List	$269,807	$257,761	$267,445	-3.62%
Med List	$204,409	$189,900	$189,900	0.00%
Avg Sold	$259,500	$248,026	$257,414	-3.65%
Med Sold	$199,000	$185,000	$185,000	0.00%
Sold/List %	96.18%	96.22%	96.25%	-0.03%
Avg SQFT	2187	2131	2116	0.71%
Med SQFT	1986	1924	1942	-0.93%
Avg $ SQFT	$118.66	$116.39	$121.65	-4.33%
Avg DOM	63	67	56	19.64%
Median DOM	43	48	37	29.73%
# Expired	721	797	581	37.18%
# Withdrawn	857	891	660	35.00%
Not Sold	1578	1688	1241	36.02%
Not Sold %	46.21%	52.75%	41.31%	27.69%

Below are the Year to Date Austin sales stats through September 2008.

Austin Real Estate Sale Stats by MLS Area – Sept 2009 YTD

Austin Real Estate Market Update for August 2009 Sales

Austin Real Estate Stats – 2009 Midyear Breakdown by Austin MLS Area

Austin Real Estate Market Update – June 2009 Stats

Austin Real Estate Market Update – May 2009 Stats

Austin Real Estate Market Update – Sept 2008

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