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Tax Credit Effect on Austin Real Estate Market

tax credits

The $8,000 buyer tax credit ended April 30, 2010. Take a look at the following graph to see the effect the tax credit had on buyer activity in Austin TX.  This shows Pending activity for Austin MLS listings going back to Jan 2005 through April 2010. The green line is 2010. The previous years of 2007, 2008, 2009 are represented by the other colored lines.

Austin Pending Listings Graph 2007 through April 2010I used Pending listings because a lot of the April Pending sales haven’t closed yet, but anything that qualified for the tax credit would have to be Pending by April 30th, so this gives us a sneak peek at what the sales data will look like for May closed sales.

A couple of interesting things to note here. I went back to 2007 because that was the peak year for Austin. As you can see on the chart, April Pending listings exceeded the peak year of 2007 for April. I suspect we’ve never experienced an April in Austin where almost 3,000 homes received accepted offers.What does this mean for the future?

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Posted by Steve
6 years ago

Austin Real Estate Market Update – March 2010

Real Estate Market Stats

The Austin real estate market for March 2010 saw a not surprising 22% increase in the number of sales compared to the same month a year ago. Average sold price was up 2.22%, median sold was slightly down at -0.66%. Before we call that “good news”, it would help to know that March 2009 was the lowest point in average/median sales prices in the past 2+ years. March 2010 average sales price is still lower than March 2008, two years ago, so average values are still treading water at best.

The Not Solds (expired/withdrawn) are down to 37% from 42.5% a year ago and 44% last month. First time buyers seeking the $8,000 tax credit are creating higher than normal demand. The question is what the market will do after the April 30th end date for tax credit buyers.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Mar 2009 Yr % Change
# Sold 1089 1671 1372 21.79%
Avg List $257,450 $249,373 $246,760 1.06%
Med List $195,234 $189,000 $189,900 -0.47%
Avg Sold $245,515 $239,983 $234,767 2.22%
Med Sold $190,000 $183,673 $184,900 -0.66%
Sold/List % 95.36% 96.23% 95.14% 1.15%
Avg SQFT 2180 2145 2176 -1.42%
Med SQFT 1989 1945 1976 -1.57%
Avg $ SQFT $112.62 $111.88 $107.89 3.70%
Avg DOM 73 69 84 -17.86%
Median DOM 53 40 59 -32.20%
# Expired 362 362 422 -14.22%
# Withdrawn 515 640 593 7.93%
Not Sold 877 1002 1015 -1.28%
Not Sold % 44.61% 37.49% 42.52% -11.84%

 

Year to date, through March, average sold price is up about 2%. Number sold is up 10%. Other stats are relatively unchanged.

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Posted by Steve
6 years ago

Austin Real Estate Market Update for August 2009 Sales

Austin Real Estate values for August 2009 are down about 5% from the same month last year. Average sales prices for the 1,657 houses that sold are down 5.12%. Median sold prices are down 4.80%. The number of houses sold is down 15% from August 2008, which is less of a decrease than we’ve seen for most of the past 12+ months.  The sold to list price gap is 96%, which is the same as a year ago and the same as last month. The average list price was $257K and the average sold price $247K, so the average home is selling for about $10K below the final list price. Note that this measures the gap only between the last list price, not the original list price. Unfortunately I have to work harder to obtain the ration of sold to original list price so I don’t calculate it monthly, but my best guess is that it’s probably somewhere between 90% to 92%.

The Days on Market keep climbing, now at 73 days average and 43 days median on market. Even though that’s higher than last year, those are still fairl decent DOM numbers.

The Not Solds (Expired and Withdrawn listings) continue to be fairly high at 45%. This means that of all the listings that departed the MLS in August (no longer Active for Sale), 45% of the listings departed as failed sales efforts. This tells us what we already know, which is that many sellers are not desperate and they refuse to drop their list price below whatever mental threshhold they’ve established, regardless of what the market data says. This in turn is keeping our sold prices reasonably stable but also may be creating a shadow inventory of pent up future listings that will come online in the next 2 or 3 years once seller perceive a better selling environment.

Below is the chart comparing August with the month and year before. Further below is the usual collection of monthly charts and graphs.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update August 2009
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

Jul 2009 Aug 2009 Aug 2008 Yr % Change
# Sold 1972 1657 1948 -14.94%
Avg List $258,562 $256,663 $270,759 -5.21%
Med List $199,900 $197,500 $206,352 -4.29%
Avg Sold $248,984 $247,072 $260,411 -5.12%
Med Sold $195,000 $190,400 $200,000 -4.80%
Sold/List % 96.30% 96.26% 96.18% 0.09%
Avg SQFT 2184 2199 2191 0.37%
Med SQFT 1981 1971 1992 -1.05%
Avg $ SQFT $114.00 $112.36 $118.85 -5.47%
Avg DOM 70 73 64 14.06%
Median DOM 44 43 44 -2.27%
# Expired 476 491 740 -33.65%
# Withdrawn 825 900 876 2.74%
Not Sold 1301 1391 1616 -13.92%
Not Sold % 39.75% 45.64% 45.34% 0.65%



Next is the Year to data chart showing how our Austin real estate market is doing compared to the market at the same point in 2008.

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Posted by Steve
7 years ago

Austin Real Estate Market Update – June 2009 Stats

austin-sales-market-last-16-months-200906

We’re at mid-year (June 2009 stats) for the Austin real estate market stats, and still the Austin real estate market is hanging tough. We continue to see stubborn bouncing up and down from month to month, as the graph to the left shows (click to enlarge), but the overall yearly trend is holding steady at around 3% below last year’s YTD.

Let’s look at the breakdown of the Austin single family home sales for June 2009:

• Number of homes sold is down 9% (was down 27% last month) from 2,178 June 2008 to 1,986 June 2009.  This is a small decline compared to what we’ve been seeing for the past year, in which most months decline by more than 20% over the year before.

• Average list prices in Austin were down 2% over the same month last year to $265,868.
• Average sold prices in Austin were down 2.9% over the same month last year to $254,924 from $262,512 last year.
• Median sold price was up slightly (0.11%) to $200,500. Last year in June it was $200,278.
• Average List to Sold price ratio is 95.88%, down slightly from 96.40% the same month last year. Note that this reports the sold price compared to the last list price, not the original list price.
• Avg sold price per square foot is down almost 7% to $115 compared to $123 a year ago in Mar.
• Avg days on market is up 16 days (26%) from 61 last year to 77 this June.
• Median days on market is up 14 days (33%) from 36 days last year to 48 June this year.
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is down 12% over the same month last year, to 34% of all removed listings compared to 36% for the same month last year.

The chart below shows the June stats for 2009/2008, plus last month’s stats.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

May 2009 Jun 2009 June 2008 Yr % Change
# Sold 2060 1986 2178 -8.82%
Avg List $274,380 $265,868 $272,312 -2.37%
Med List $203,037 $207,000 $208,250 -0.60%
Avg Sold $265,878 $254,924 $262,512 -2.89%
Med Sold $199,788 $200,500 $200,278 0.11%
Sold/List % 96.90% 95.88% 96.40% -0.54%
Avg SQFT 2154 2224 2135 4.17%
Med SQFT 1945 2016 1955 3.12%
Avg $ SQFT $123.43 $114.62 $122.96 -6.78%
Avg DOM 61 77 61 26.23%
Median DOM 36 48 36 33.33%
# Expired 516 390 530 -26.42%
# Withdrawn 598 679 691 -1.74%
Not Sold 1114 1069 1221 -12.45%
Not Sold % 35.10% 34.99% 35.92% -2.59%

Below is the Year to data stats for the Austin sales market.

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Posted by Steve
7 years ago

Austin Real Estate Market Update – May 2009 Stats

The Austin real estate market continues to chug along in a manner that would be considered unimpressive if not for the fact that it was expected to be doing so much worse by so many. Average sold prices are down about 3.5% and the Median is down about 2.25%. We’ll take take that. I’m not complaining.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update May 2009
Houses only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

Apr 2009 May 2009 May 2008 Yr % Change
# Sold 1522 1610 2060 -21.84%
Avg List $245,130 $268,001 $274,380 -2.32%
Med List $198,170 $199,970 $203,037 -1.51%
Avg Sold $234,444 $256,603 $265,878 -3.49%
Med Sold $190,000 $195,250 $199,788 -2.27%
Sold/List % 95.64% 95.75% 96.90% -1.19%
Avg SQFT 2136 2208 2154 2.51%
Med SQFT 1950 1989 1945 2.26%
Avg $ SQFT $109.76 $116.22 $123.43 -5.85%
Avg DOM 74 75 61 22.95%
Median DOM 44 43 36 19.44%
# Expired 391 383 516 -25.78%
# Withdrawn 648 590 598 -1.34%
Not Sold 1039 973 1114 -12.66%
Not Sold % 40.57% 37.67% 35.10% 7.33%



One interesting thing to note is that the “Not Solds” have dipped down to 38%, barely higher than the 35% for the same month last year. This is the first time the Pending/Withdrawn listings (not solds) have been less than 40% of the total departing Austin MLS listings since June 2008, when they represented 37% of the departing listings. We hit 61% in Jan 2009 and 62% in Nov 2008, which meant a lot of sales efforts were ending in failure last fall and winter, but things have improved a lot since then.

Personally, Sylvia and I have 6 closings this month and we are really, really busy. It’s starting to feel like 2006/2007, but the numbers don’t look like 2006/2007. We’re running really fast on our hamster wheel, but putting together transactions that stick is as hard as ever.

Below is the Year to Date (YTD) chart for Austin, followed by several other charts and graphs that will bring you up to date on current conditions in the Austin real estate market.

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Posted by Steve
7 years ago

Austin Rental Market Update – March 2009

Average rents in Austin have taken a slight dip for the first quarter of 2009. The number of rented homes is up 11% over the same three months a year ago, no doubt due to the fact that many sellers are opting to rent instead of dropping prices below their bottom dollar. This creates additional rental inventory, which gives renters more homes to choose from, and prevents prices from increasing.

Personally, I’ve leased 4 or 5 homes in the past 2 months, and the market is really spotty. One house I leased central received 4 applications in 2 days. Another one I leased north central leased immediately for $1,650 a year ago, but took about 45 days to lease for $1,595 this year. Another one in Western Oaks leased for $1,550 (same amount as last year) in about a week. A different home in Western Oaks, also listed at $1,550, and newer and in better condition, has not received any showings in more than a week. It’s not an easy market to predict right now, much like the sales market. 

The stats chart is below, followed by the 1999-2009 Austin leasing history graph. 

 

Austin Real Estate Rental Market Update Q1 2009 Jan-Mar
Houses only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

Oct-Dec 2008 Jan-Mar 2009 Jan-Mar 2008 Yr % Change
# Rented 1878 1979 1782 11.05%
Avg List $1,407 $1,382 $1,393 -0.79%
Med List $1,250 $1,225 $1,250 -2.00%
Avg Rent $1,390 $1,364 $1,384 -1.45%
Med Rent $1,225 $1,200 $1,225 -2.04%
Rent/List % 98.79% 98.70% 99.35% -0.66%
Avg SQFT 1934 1930 1919 0.57%
Med SQFT 1794 1798 1799 -0.06%
Avg $ SQFT $0.72 $0.71 $0.72 -2.01%
Avg DOM 42 50 41 21.95%
Median DOM 33 40 29 37.93%
# Expired 293 206 183 12.57%
# Withdrawn 513 458 350 30.86%
Not Rented 806 664 533 24.58%
Not Rented % 30.03% 25.12% 23.02% 9.12%

 

As noted in the chart above, average rents in Austin (for single family homes) are $1,364/mo., down 1.45% from $1,384/mo. the same quarter 2008. Median price has fallen from $1,225 a year ago to $1,200 this year, meaning half of all homes in Austin rented for $1200 or less. 

Below is a graphical representation of the Austin rental market from 1999 through March 2009.

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Posted by Steve
7 years ago