Austin Rental Market – September 2006 Update

Leasing Market Update

Below are the stats for the Austin Rental Market for September 2006 and for 2006 year-to-date.

We are now in the slower rental season in Austin. From September through around March is not the ideal time to rent a home in Austin. It’s not a disaster to have a vacancy during this time frame, but the last time I ran stats for it (about a year ago), a typical home in Austin rents for about $50/mo less and takes an average of 10 days longer to rent in the fall/winter than it does in the spring/summer. You can see the fall-off in averages by looking at the August to September comparison below, as school has started and families and students have already settled in by August. (Renters – you can get better deals this time of year, but you have fewer homes to choose from)

As a landlord in Austin, it’s always best to keep your leases ending in the summer cycle if possible, with move-in date after and before school starts. This isn’t always easy to do. We just rented a home with a 12 month lease because that’s what the tenants really needed. In that case, the renewal would be the time to reset the turnover cycle if they decide to renew after 12 months. Another one we just rented we were able to lease it through June 2008, thus giving the owner a longer occupancy and setting the lease ending date back to a summer cycle. A rent increase was written in at the 12 month point.

The other option when you have vacant rent properties during this time of year is to do a shorter 6 to 9 month lease, but that can result in more than one turnover in a 12 month period, which isn’t good either.

OK, to the stats below. There is virtually no change from September 2005, although it looks like homes are renting a bit faster than this time last year. I sound like a broken record, but the story is the same – we have so much new inventory being supplied by investors that it’s making it hard for rental rates to move up. When investment activity slows down, and supply diminishes relative to demand, rental rates will be able to increase. Homes in Austin still rent for less today, on average, than they they did in 1999.

 

Austin Leasing Stats September 2006
Previous Month and Year Comparison
All MLS Areas – Houses Only
August 2006
Sept 2006
Sept 2005
Yr % Change
# Leased
773
606
559
+8%
Avg List Price
$1363
$1270
$1271
0%
Median List Price
$1200
$1185
$1150
-3%
Avg Leased Price
$1352
$1255
$1256
0%
Med Leased Price
$1200
$1175
$1150
+2%
Avg Size SQFT
1887
1842
1827
+1%
Median SQFT
1753
1734
1743
-1%
Avg $ per SQFT
$0.72
$0.68
$0.69
-1%
Avg Days on Mkt
44
51
57
-11%
Median Days on Mkt
34
42
47
-11%

 

Below is the year-to-date stats for the Austin Rental Market. We are just slightly ahead of last years’ pace, which means we might be at the bottoming out point in this 5 year downward slide in rental rates, but we still have three slow months ahead and a lot of inventory on the market. As of this morning (Oct 7, 2006), there are 1470 single family homes listed for rent in the Austin MLS. We can expect 600 to 700 of those to lease by next month. That’s a lot of unrented homes to roll into next month’s inventory.

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Austin Central Texas new home market stays hot

Austin Real Estate Market on Fire

This is from this morning’s Austin American Statesman. Pretty good article overall, with some good info. I was especially interested in the comments about investors inflating the new home sales in Austin. We sell very few brand new homes to Buyers because I worry about exactly what the article mentions, among other things.

My personal test for new home areas is to see how the new home prices compare to resale homes. Unless the new homes are selling for more than the comparable resale homes in the surrounding areas, I wouldn’t purchase there myself unless I planned on remaining for a very long time (5 to 10 years). The reason is that I don’t think it’s a good idea to invest in a home which has a resale value, the day you move in, which is less than you just paid. This, combined with small or zero downpayment loans is how peolpe get into trouble and become “upside down” in the property they own. It’s better, in my opinion, to stick to developed neighborhoods that cannot experience downward pricing pressure from nearby new home neighborhoods.

AMERICAN-STATESMAN
Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Austin Central Texas new home market stays hot
Experts raise caution about investor sales.

Central Texas continues to buck signs of a cooling housing market seen elsewhere in the country.

Area builders started 4,266 homes in the third quarter, up about 8 percent from the same quarter of 2005, and closed on 4,518: a record, according to Residential Strategies Inc., a Dallas-based firm that tracks new home activity.

Thanks to strong job growth and moderating mortgage rates, Austin’s housing market has been healthy all year. In contrast, markets are cooling rapidly in many other parts of the country.

“It seems to be the rest of the nation is doing poorly, and we tend to go against that,” said Mark Sprague, Austin partner with Residential Strategies.

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