Let’s take a look at the number of Austin Homes that sell versus the number that don’t sell. The graph above shows Sold and Not Sold (Expired or Withdrawn) counts for 2006 and 2007.
The dark green bar represents the number of listings sold in 2007, the light green bar represents the number of listings NOT sold in 2007. Same for the red bars for 2006.
So, for example, look at January and the sold/not sold bars relative to each other.
January 2007 shows slightly fewer sales and slightly more Expired listings than 2006, but they are close. In Feb it flips and 2007 is a better year than 2006, with more sales and fewer expired/withdrawn listings. 2007 is also stronger in March. It’s mixed in April, but May 2007 beats 2006.
From June up to the present, 2007 is underperforming compared to 2006. With regard to the number of sales, we expected 2007 to pull back some because 2006 was so strong. But look what happens by the time we get to September 2007. The number of Not Sold (Expired or Withdrawn) listings is creeping up relative to the number sold. If we plotted these as lines instead of bars, the trend shows the sold and not sold numbers converging as if they will soon meet. We’ll need to keep an eye on this.
By the way, look at the massive spread between sold/expired in June 2006. See how high the dark red bar is and how low the light red bar is? I remember that month and we were having a very hard time getting deals accepted for out buyers because we kept running into multiple offers on every deal. For some buyers, we went through 4 or 5 written offers before getting one to stick. That was a Seller’s Market for sure.
I plotted similar stats for sold/not sold last April, charting the years 2002 through 2006. Let’s take a look below at what happens when we get into a Buyer’s Market in terms of inventory levels.
Note above that in 2003 the number of Not Sold listings actually surpassed the number of Sold listings entered into the Austin MLS. That was a buyer’s market for sure. Hopefully (from sellers standpoint) we are not heading there again, as it will become more difficult to sell your home. From a buyer’s standpoint, a more balanced market will give you more negotiation power and more homes to select from. We’ll be keeping a close eye on the market through the end of the year. Stay tuned.