Austin Real Estate Sold vs. Expired Comparison

Austin Real Estate Sold vs. Expired Graph
Let’s take a look at the number of Austin Homes that sell versus the number that don’t sell. The graph above shows Sold and Not Sold (Expired or Withdrawn) counts for 2006 and 2007.

The dark green bar represents the number of listings sold in 2007, the light green bar represents the number of listings NOT sold in 2007. Same for the red bars for 2006.

So, for example, look at January and the sold/not sold bars relative to each other.

January 2007 shows slightly fewer sales and slightly more Expired listings than 2006, but they are close. In Feb it flips and 2007 is a better year than 2006, with more sales and fewer expired/withdrawn listings. 2007 is also stronger in March. It’s mixed in April, but May 2007 beats 2006.

From June up to the present, 2007 is underperforming compared to 2006. With regard to the number of sales, we expected 2007 to pull back some because 2006 was so strong. But look what happens by the time we get to September 2007. The number of Not Sold (Expired or Withdrawn) listings is creeping up relative to the number sold. If we plotted these as lines instead of bars, the trend shows the sold and not sold numbers converging as if they will soon meet. We’ll need to keep an eye on this.

By the way, look at the massive spread between sold/expired in June 2006. See how high the dark red bar is and how low the light red bar is? I remember that month and we were having a very hard time getting deals accepted for out buyers because we kept running into multiple offers on every deal. For some buyers, we went through 4 or 5 written offers before getting one to stick. That was a Seller’s Market for sure.

I plotted similar stats for sold/not sold last April, charting the years 2002 through 2006. Let’s take a look below at what happens when we get into a Buyer’s Market in terms of inventory levels.

Austin Sold Expired Withdrawn Graph

Note above that in 2003 the number of Not Sold listings actually surpassed the number of Sold listings entered into the Austin MLS. That was a buyer’s market for sure. Hopefully (from sellers standpoint) we are not heading there again, as it will become more difficult to sell your home. From a buyer’s standpoint, a more balanced market will give you more negotiation power and more homes to select from. We’ll be keeping a close eye on the market through the end of the year. Stay tuned.

3 thoughts on “Austin Real Estate Sold vs. Expired Comparison”

  1. Interesting! I have noticed more withdrawn notices in homes that I follow on my watch list (basically central homes with 4 bedrooms at least 1500 sq feet under $550.) Some had already been on the market for 100 plus when we first starting thinking about buying a new home in August.

    Steve what makes a home not sell? I can think of one home that was way overpriced for the neighborhood, it had been poorly updated (the kiss of death for me), with some hideous choices made, but at least they have steadily (probably painfully dropped the price). I guess it will eventually sell. Another home needs updating — kitchen, all baths, with most of the sq footage in a poorly converted garage and the backyard completely taken up by a poorly maintained pool. Worst of all it stinks of cigarette smoke. I’m not sure they could sell it for 100K less. Yet another nearby home that is a bit small but beautifully re-done is also just sitting. It is priced 5K less than the smokehouse but I supposed it is still high for the neighborhood.

    What happens when homes expire? Are they rented? Re-done? Do the owners walk away? Are they quickly re-listed? Are owners too reluctant to lower prices?

  2. > Steve what makes a home not sell?

    Sometimes it truly is a mystery. If it’s priced right, well staged, getting shown, etc., the most important thing to do is get feedback from the agents who show the property to figure out what is going on. Sometimes it is a perception problem, especially if it started way over priced and accumulated a lot of days on market before being dropped.

    > What happens when homes expire?

    Many owners simply give up and stay. If that’s not an option, they rent it. Others will try to sell again with another agent who makes them do the things they weren’t willing to do the first time, then it sells. Some homes go into foreclosure if not sold.

    > Are owners too reluctant to lower prices?

    Oddly enough, sellers are often more willing to negotiate to a lower price that they’re willing to set. In other words, it’s not uncommon for a seller to be unwilling to drop a price, but if an offer comes in, they are willing to drop it in negotiation. If the negotiation doesn’t pan out, they are not willing to reset the price to the lower amount they are willing to take, but instead want to leave it higher “to have room to negotiate”.


  3. I have a property that I recently withdrew from the market – crestview area, 1960’s built. It wasn’t in great shape, but I put a good chunk of money into remodeling it and listed it at a price that was reasonable, but on the high side of prices. I had no problem getting offers. I accepted an offer, but the buyer backed out without comment after the inspection. I was worried that I might have problems, but moved on to one of the backup offers. The second buyer backed out, so I knew I had issues. It turns out the property had foundation problems and a couple other minor issues. Quotes came in at under 10K for the repairs. I went to the other buyers and explained the amount of work needed, willing to discount $15k or so, leaving over $5k on the table for the buyer. I didn’t have any takers, which I can at least partly understand.

    So, I took the property off the market and am repairing it. I haven’t yet decided whether to relist it immediately or relist it in the spring. I’m cashflow positive (and will be more so soon given the rise in rental rates lately) so I don’t have any holding costs. Sitting on it a bit will help me absorb some of my expenses, and will likely net some appreciation. But, I’m losing out on the chance to take my profits and reinvest in something else that could potentially appreciate even more.

    There’s another property down the street that had the exact same issue. The property was taken of the market for foundation repairs. The property is back on the market now, but at a price that is under market. I don’t know if it still has issues or if the seller is just desperate, but I definitely don’t like the idea of having it as a comp. That’s another reason I’m tempted to wait a while.

    I don’t know whether or not my story is typical for a withdrawn listing, but I’ll submit it as a data point nonetheless.

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