Austin Real Estate Market Update – June 2009 Stats


We’re at mid-year (June 2009 stats) for the Austin real estate market stats, and still the Austin real estate market is hanging tough. We continue to see stubborn bouncing up and down from month to month, as the graph to the left shows (click to enlarge), but the overall yearly trend is holding steady at around 3% below last year’s YTD.

Let’s look at the breakdown of the Austin single family home sales for June 2009:

• Number of homes sold is down 9% (was down 27% last month) from 2,178 June 2008 to 1,986 June 2009.  This is a small decline compared to what we’ve been seeing for the past year, in which most months decline by more than 20% over the year before.

• Average list prices in Austin were down 2% over the same month last year to $265,868.
• Average sold prices in Austin were down 2.9% over the same month last year to $254,924 from $262,512 last year.
• Median sold price was up slightly (0.11%) to $200,500. Last year in June it was $200,278.
• Average List to Sold price ratio is 95.88%, down slightly from 96.40% the same month last year. Note that this reports the sold price compared to the last list price, not the original list price.
• Avg sold price per square foot is down almost 7% to $115 compared to $123 a year ago in Mar.
• Avg days on market is up 16 days (26%) from 61 last year to 77 this June.
• Median days on market is up 14 days (33%) from 36 days last year to 48 June this year.
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is down 12% over the same month last year, to 34% of all removed listings compared to 36% for the same month last year.

The chart below shows the June stats for 2009/2008, plus last month’s stats.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

May 2009 Jun 2009 June 2008 Yr % Change
# Sold 2060 1986 2178 -8.82%
Avg List $274,380 $265,868 $272,312 -2.37%
Med List $203,037 $207,000 $208,250 -0.60%
Avg Sold $265,878 $254,924 $262,512 -2.89%
Med Sold $199,788 $200,500 $200,278 0.11%
Sold/List % 96.90% 95.88% 96.40% -0.54%
Avg SQFT 2154 2224 2135 4.17%
Med SQFT 1945 2016 1955 3.12%
Avg $ SQFT $123.43 $114.62 $122.96 -6.78%
Avg DOM 61 77 61 26.23%
Median DOM 36 48 36 33.33%
# Expired 516 390 530 -26.42%
# Withdrawn 598 679 691 -1.74%
Not Sold 1114 1069 1221 -12.45%
Not Sold % 35.10% 34.99% 35.92% -2.59%

Below is the Year to data stats for the Austin sales market.

Austin Sales Market YTD Update – Jan thru June 2009
Houses only (no condos, duplexes, etc) – Data from Austin MLS

Jan-Jun 09 Jan-Jun 08 Yr % Change
# Sold 8418 10721 -21.48%
Avg List $256,681 $261,411 -1.81%
Med List $199,500 $199,000 0.25%
Avg Sold $244,843 $251,682 -2.72%
Med Sold $192,500 $192,343 0.08%
Sold/List % 95.39% 96.28% -0.92%
Avg SQFT 2189 2132 2.67%
Med SQFT 1990 1940 2.58%
Avg $ SQFT $111.85 $118.05 -5.25%
Avg DOM 78 66 18.18%
Median DOM 51 42 21.43%
# Expired 2549 3206 -20.49%
# Withdrawn 3814 3499 9.00%
Not Sold 6363 6705 -5.10%
Not Sold % 43% 38% 11.88%

As shown above, the median sold price YTD is about even with last year. Average sold is down about 3%, which doesn’t sound like a positive, but viewed in context of the national economy and real estate markets elsewhere, Austin is doing just fine. Days on market continues to grow longer, list to sold price ratio keeps falling and the “not sold” percentage, though falling in June, is still higher YTD than last year. So we still have some strong headwinds but are weathering them fairly well, all things considered.

Below is a visual representation of where we are YTD in relation to past years.


I really like graphs because they paint a better picture than just charts, numbers and words. Does the above look like an Austin real estate market that’s going down the tubes? No, it doesn’t, and it’s not. The graph indicates the YTD sold prices are up from 2008, but that’s because it’s measured against the entire of 2008 whereas the chart above it measures YTD2008 vs. YTD2009.

Still, I expect we’re going to see an abnormal bump in demand during September and October as buyers realize they’re letting an $8,000 government credit slip away (that’s 4% of a $200K purchase),  plus low interest rates (just closed a first time buyer last week as 4.85% – and she gets the $8K bonus soon on an amended 2008 tax return refund), all during a buyer’s market with a lot of good inventory to pick from.

One final note. Most of the transactions Sylvia and I have completed this year have been much more difficult than in years past. Other agents we talk to say the same thing. The conditions are more difficult, with stricter appraisal rules and picky underwriters asking for stuff we’ve never been asked to provide in the past, but also our counter-parties (other agents and their clients) seem to be under greater stress and less easy to deal with.

Also, our percentage of buyers who start the purchase process but never complete it has grown, so I think people are just nervous and a bit worried, and it’s showing up in our deals in various forms. Our buyers who do complete a purchase need a lot more time and view a lot more properties than in the past. So there just seems be trepidation all around, for both buyers and sellers.

Since we’re at mid-year, I’ll be posting the year to date sales breakdowns by Austin MLS areas next, but that will be in a separate post as I’m still working on it. As usually, questions and comments are welcome. Also, if you’d like to be alerted up updates each month, please subscribe to our blog.

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