Austin Real Estate Market Update for August 2009 Sales

Austin Real Estate values for August 2009 are down about 5% from the same month last year. Average sales prices for the 1,657 houses that sold are down 5.12%. Median sold prices are down 4.80%. The number of houses sold is down 15% from August 2008, which is less of a decrease than we’ve seen for most of the past 12+ months.  The sold to list price gap is 96%, which is the same as a year ago and the same as last month. The average list price was $257K and the average sold price $247K, so the average home is selling for about $10K below the final list price. Note that this measures the gap only between the last list price, not the original list price. Unfortunately I have to work harder to obtain the ration of sold to original list price so I don’t calculate it monthly, but my best guess is that it’s probably somewhere between 90% to 92%.

The Days on Market keep climbing, now at 73 days average and 43 days median on market. Even though that’s higher than last year, those are still fairl decent DOM numbers.

The Not Solds (Expired and Withdrawn listings) continue to be fairly high at 45%. This means that of all the listings that departed the MLS in August (no longer Active for Sale), 45% of the listings departed as failed sales efforts. This tells us what we already know, which is that many sellers are not desperate and they refuse to drop their list price below whatever mental threshhold they’ve established, regardless of what the market data says. This in turn is keeping our sold prices reasonably stable but also may be creating a shadow inventory of pent up future listings that will come online in the next 2 or 3 years once seller perceive a better selling environment.

Below is the chart comparing August with the month and year before. Further below is the usual collection of monthly charts and graphs.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update August 2009
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	Jul 2009	Aug 2009	Aug 2008	Yr % Change
# Sold	1972	1657	1948	-14.94%
Avg List	$258,562	$256,663	$270,759	-5.21%
Med List	$199,900	$197,500	$206,352	-4.29%
Avg Sold	$248,984	$247,072	$260,411	-5.12%
Med Sold	$195,000	$190,400	$200,000	-4.80%
Sold/List %	96.30%	96.26%	96.18%	0.09%
Avg SQFT	2184	2199	2191	0.37%
Med SQFT	1981	1971	1992	-1.05%
Avg $ SQFT	$114.00	$112.36	$118.85	-5.47%
Avg DOM	70	73	64	14.06%
Median DOM	44	43	44	-2.27%
# Expired	476	491	740	-33.65%
# Withdrawn	825	900	876	2.74%
Not Sold	1301	1391	1616	-13.92%
Not Sold %	39.75%	45.64%	45.34%	0.65%

Next is the Year to data chart showing how our Austin real estate market is doing compared to the market at the same point in 2008.

Austin Sales Market YTD Update – Jan-Aug 2009
Homes only (no condos, duplexes, etc) – Data from Austin MLS
	Jan-Aug 09	Jan-Aug 08	Yr % Change
# Sold	12146	14688	-17.31%
Avg List	$257,012	$263,818	-2.58%
Med List	$199,500	$199,900	-0.20%
Avg Sold	$245,874	$254,123	-3.25%
Med Sold	$192,945	$194,340	-0.72%
Sold/List %	95.67%	96.33%	-0.68%
Avg SQFT	2190	2144	2.15%
Med SQFT	1984	1950	1.74%
Avg $ SQFT	$112.27	$118.53	-5.28%
Avg DOM	76	65	16.92%
Median DOM	48	42	14.29%
# Expired	3518	4480	-21.47%
# Withdrawn	5535	5256	5.31%
Not Sold	9053	9736	-7.02%
Not Sold %	43%	40%	7.13%

As you can see above, Austin’s average sold price for houses from Jan through Aug 2009 is down 3.25%. The median sold price is down 0.72%. These are good numbers, really. Nothing to complain about here at all. I’m interested to see how things look as the year winds down. Remember it was a year ago that the financial markets nearly collapse, and buyer went home and locked their doors. That really showed up in October sales, which I won’t be able to report for 2 more months, but stay tuned.

Next let’s look at Austin’s August sales broken out by price range.

	August 2009 Sales by Price Range
Price Range	Number Sold	Avg Days on Mkt	Active Sept 2009	Months inventory
$149,999 or under	452	57	1634	3.31
$150,000 – $199,999	430	62	1711	3.57
$200,000 – $249,999	231	73	1112	4.02
$250,000 – $299,999	178	90	995	4.70
$300,000 – $349,999	96	87	641	5.69
$350,000 – $399,999	88	99	619	6.56
$400,000 – $449,999	44	87	403	7.33
$450,000 – $499,999	32	97	406	10.88
$500,000 – $549,999	29	108	228	7.60
$550,000 – $599,999	12	147	244	13.07
$600,000 – $699,999	24	82	323	10.31
$700,000 – $799,999	11	136	215	13.72
$800,000 – $899,999	13	76	178	14.83
$900,000 – $999,999	5	105	132	23.29
$1,000,000 or over	12	155	596	31.93

What we see above is that market performance and price range have almost a perfect inverse relationship to one another. Homes priced below $200K have less than a 4 month inventory, which is a seller’s market (unless you are too far from Austin in an area with bad schools). As we get to the $450K/$500K range, to turns to a clear buyer’s market, provided a buyer can find a non-stubborn seller who won’t negotiate (that’s the 45% Not Sold crowd).

Homes in the $300Ks are back to a balanced market, depending, again, on location and the desireablity of the area and whether or not there is too much competing inventory, such as in Steiner Ranch.

Let’s see how the average and median sold prices look on a graph of the past 18 months.

Looking at the graph above, it appears the Austin market is slipping back somewhat. I think we’re going to have a bump for Sep-Nov though as all the first time buyer scramble to beat the $8,000 tax credit deadline. That is if Congress doesn’t step in it by extending it. I think it should be extended, but not until after November 1st otherwise the urgency currently being created by the Nov 30th closing deadline will evaporate and we might actually see a slowdown as buyers decide to wait again.

As usual, comments and questions are welcome. If you’d like to stay on top of Austin Real Estate stats each month, remember to subscribe to the Austin real estate blog so you’ll know when new information has been posted.