Austin Real Estate Market Update – December 2009

The Austin real estate market ended 2009 on an up note, with both average and median sold prices up more than 5% over Dec 2008. Oh, but wait … December 2008 was a dismal month because we all still thought the financial world was falling off a cliff. But the stats are what they are so let’s have a look.

Number of homes sold is down 4.39% from a year ago, which is a small decrease compared to the numbers we were seeing earlier this year. Average list price is up 3.71% to $276,387, Median List Price is up 5.22% to $199,900, Average sold price is up 5.15%, Median  sold is up 5.39%, the Sold/List % is up 1.39% to 95.54%. And Average Price per Square Foot of sold homes is also up, by 1.11%, to $115.36.

Average Days on Market was up about 4% to 82 days, but Median Days on Market was down 14% to 48 days. The number of Not Sold was down also, though at 56% still a big number, but that’s normal for December when lots of sellers give up for the holidays.

Here is the chart showing Nov/Dec 2009 and Dec 2008 sales stats.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update December 2009 Sales
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Dec 2008 Yr % Change
# Sold 1515 1219 1275 -4.39%
Avg List $252,963 $276,387 $266,498 3.71%
Med List $185,000 $199,900 $189,990 5.22%
Avg Sold $242,349 $264,061 $251,128 5.15%
Med Sold $180,000 $194,858 $184,900 5.39%
Sold/List % 95.80% 95.54% 94.23% 1.39%
Avg SQFT 2113 2289 2201 4.00%
Med SQFT 1896 2050 1981 3.48%
Avg $ SQFT $114.69 $115.36 $114.10 1.11%
Avg DOM 73 82 79 3.80%
Median DOM 44 48 56 -14.29%
# Expired 474 854 866 -1.39%
# Withdrawn 832 699 851 -17.86%
Not Sold 1306 1553 1717 -9.55%
Not Sold % 46.30% 56.02% 57.39% -2.37%



So, that’s a bunch of numbers, but what does it all mean? Is the Austin real estate market rebounding from the slight decline of 2009? I think it is. 2010 will be better than 2009 for sellers. Buyers will still find plenty of good opportunities though.

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Austin Real Estate Market Update – Nov 2009

Maybe I should start terming my Austin real estate market update blogs “Austin Real Estate Market, as Influenced by the Federal Government”. Indeed, the word “market” does need an asterisk next to it for the Sept-Nov time frame in Austin. Instead of taking its natural course, whatever that might have been, the lower end of the market was stimulated by government incentives for the Latter part of 2009 through November, and the sub-$200K buyers responded. Thus we see on the graph below the drastic drop in the average and median sold price for November 2009 as the final batch of first time home buyer tax credit sales closed.

Austin Real Estate sales graph Nov 2009

It’s not hard to see what the real estate market is doing, but it is hard to know for sure why it’s doing it, or, that is, to what extent the number of sales (way up) and the average/median values (down) are influenced by these the artificially low interest rates and the buyer incentives, both being caused by government intervention in the market. Some economist believe that once these stimulus measures peter out, as they will later this year, the national real estate market is in for another big drop in prices as foreclosures will snowball to the highest levels we’ve seen yet.

So what does all of this mean for Austin? Is Austin real estate in generally good enough shape to ride it out better than most markets? I think so. Let’s have a look at the November stats.

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Austin Real Estate Sale Stats by MLS Area – Sept 2009 YTD

Austin’s real estate market is a “market of markets”, and thus the overall news reported about real estate activity in the Austin Metro area may or may not be reflective of conditions in the specific area in which you live, or the home you own, or the home you want to buy. Each quarter I break down the Austin Real Estate market year-to-date stats into MLS area-specific comparisons of the year before so we can take a look at the variations among different pockets of Austin.

If you follow these quarterly Austin MLS breakdowns, you know that there is always variation among different MLS areas and price ranges, for better or worse. This Year-to-Date report through Sept 2009 is a head scratcher for me though, mainly because the number of Austin MLS areas that normally outperform the overall market has dwindled substantially. Based on what Sylvia and I are experiencing in the field, I would have guessed the opposite to be true. And the market overall is holding up.

But here’s what I’m talking about …

Of the 44 Austin Metro MLS areas tracked below…
5 Austin MLS areas had an increase in average sold prices (3 months ago it was 11)
7 Austin MLS areas had an increase in median sold prices (3 months ago it was 11)
1 Austin MLS area had an increase in average sold price per square foot (3 months ago it was 7).
4 of the Austin MLS areas saw a decrease in average days on market (same as 3 months ago)
7 of the Austin MLS areas saw a decrease in median days on market (3 months ago it was 6).
1 (only 1) Austin MLS area saw an increase in the three main pricing metrics – avg and median sold, and price per square foot. Three areas were in this clug at mid-year.

So does this mean the Austin real estate market is getting worse? As usual, it depends. From a statistical standpoint, more areas are trending down than up. But if you ask Sylvia and I if we’re busy, yes we are. We had 4 closings in October and three on the board already for November, which is unusual for the slow season. On the other hand, if you ask an agent who specializes in luxury homes in Lakeway, they will probably say things are dismal. And I do in fact have a listing on 10 acres in Dripping Springs that isn’t getting any showings even though we think it’s under priced.

Add in the government interference/intervention in normal real estate market activity with the tax credit incentives, the nervous jitters of the stock market, artificially low interest rates, appraisal issues, and what we have is a number of variables pulling and tugging with and against one another. Bottom line, overall, at 3% down for the year on average sold price and about even on medial sold price, Austin’s market is doing about what we think it should, as a whole. It’s just interesting to see all the underlying cross currents.

That said, below is the breakdown summary, then you can study the chart yourself and see how your areas of interest are doing. As usual, questions and comments are welcome.

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Austin Real Estate Market Update for August 2009 Sales

Austin Real Estate values for August 2009 are down about 5% from the same month last year. Average sales prices for the 1,657 houses that sold are down 5.12%. Median sold prices are down 4.80%. The number of houses sold is down 15% from August 2008, which is less of a decrease than we’ve seen for most of the past 12+ months.  The sold to list price gap is 96%, which is the same as a year ago and the same as last month. The average list price was $257K and the average sold price $247K, so the average home is selling for about $10K below the final list price. Note that this measures the gap only between the last list price, not the original list price. Unfortunately I have to work harder to obtain the ration of sold to original list price so I don’t calculate it monthly, but my best guess is that it’s probably somewhere between 90% to 92%.

The Days on Market keep climbing, now at 73 days average and 43 days median on market. Even though that’s higher than last year, those are still fairl decent DOM numbers.

The Not Solds (Expired and Withdrawn listings) continue to be fairly high at 45%. This means that of all the listings that departed the MLS in August (no longer Active for Sale), 45% of the listings departed as failed sales efforts. This tells us what we already know, which is that many sellers are not desperate and they refuse to drop their list price below whatever mental threshhold they’ve established, regardless of what the market data says. This in turn is keeping our sold prices reasonably stable but also may be creating a shadow inventory of pent up future listings that will come online in the next 2 or 3 years once seller perceive a better selling environment.

Below is the chart comparing August with the month and year before. Further below is the usual collection of monthly charts and graphs.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update August 2009
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

Jul 2009 Aug 2009 Aug 2008 Yr % Change
# Sold 1972 1657 1948 -14.94%
Avg List $258,562 $256,663 $270,759 -5.21%
Med List $199,900 $197,500 $206,352 -4.29%
Avg Sold $248,984 $247,072 $260,411 -5.12%
Med Sold $195,000 $190,400 $200,000 -4.80%
Sold/List % 96.30% 96.26% 96.18% 0.09%
Avg SQFT 2184 2199 2191 0.37%
Med SQFT 1981 1971 1992 -1.05%
Avg $ SQFT $114.00 $112.36 $118.85 -5.47%
Avg DOM 70 73 64 14.06%
Median DOM 44 43 44 -2.27%
# Expired 476 491 740 -33.65%
# Withdrawn 825 900 876 2.74%
Not Sold 1301 1391 1616 -13.92%
Not Sold % 39.75% 45.64% 45.34% 0.65%



Next is the Year to data chart showing how our Austin real estate market is doing compared to the market at the same point in 2008.

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Austin Real Estate Stats – 2009 Midyear Breakdown by Austin MLS Area

Below are the Austin real estate market mid-year stats broken down by MLS area. I break the stats down by area each quarter because the macro stats I post each month don’t tell the entire story of our market. Location and price range factors are important, so each quarter I break down the overall stats into the specific MLS areas and compare them to the same time period (first 6 months of the year in this case) from the year before. You can check the areas in which you are interested to see how they are holding up, but even within each area there are pockets and submarkets that will defy the greater trends, for better or worse. Here is a quick summary.

For all of Austin, per my previous stats post a couple of days ago, the average sales price is down about 3% and the median sales price for all of Austin MLS sales combined is up slightly (0.08%). Not bad when viewed in context.

Of the 44 Austin Metro MLS areas tracked below…
11 had an increase in average sold prices, exactly 1/4 of all areas.
11 also had an increase in median sold prices (though not the same exact 11)
7 of the MLS area saw an increase in average sold price per square foot.
4 of the areas saw a decrease in days on market (homes selling faster)
6 of the areas saw a decrease in median days on market.
3 areas saw an increase in the three main metrics – avg and median sold, and price per square foot – areas 7 (South/Central/Zilker), 8W (Westlake/Eanes), and area SC (far southeast Caldwell County). I think SC is an anomoly because I know of nothing that would be driving demand way out there.

The fastest selling areas are 5E (East) SE (S. East), 10S (South) and NW (Northwest), all of which had average sold days of 51.
The slowest selling areas, all having average days on market greater that 100 are areas 1B (Central/Tarrytowm – 118), GTW (Georgetwon West – 114), HD (Dripping Springs – 118), LN (Lake North – 131), LS (Lake South/Lakeway – 122), PF (Pflugerville – 114), RN (River North/Steiner Ranch – 102).

As you can see, these slower selling areas are scattered to the four corners of Austin, and central. Interestingly, area 7, adjacent to 1B, is a fast selling area. We can generally say though that all of faster selling areas are closer in and most of the slower selling areas are further out, which is what I’d expect.

OK, on to the chart below. If you are unfamiliar with Austin MLS Areas, a map is at the bottom of the chart. As usual questions and comments are welcome.

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