Austin Real Estate Stats – 2009 Midyear Breakdown by Austin MLS Area

Below are the Austin real estate market mid-year stats broken down by MLS area. I break the stats down by area each quarter because the macro stats I post each month don’t tell the entire story of our market. Location and price range factors are important, so each quarter I break down the overall stats into the specific MLS areas and compare them to the same time period (first 6 months of the year in this case) from the year before. You can check the areas in which you are interested to see how they are holding up, but even within each area there are pockets and submarkets that will defy the greater trends, for better or worse. Here is a quick summary.

For all of Austin, per my previous stats post a couple of days ago, the average sales price is down about 3% and the median sales price for all of Austin MLS sales combined is up slightly (0.08%). Not bad when viewed in context.

Of the 44 Austin Metro MLS areas tracked below…
11 had an increase in average sold prices, exactly 1/4 of all areas.
11 also had an increase in median sold prices (though not the same exact 11)
7 of the MLS area saw an increase in average sold price per square foot.
4 of the areas saw a decrease in days on market (homes selling faster)
6 of the areas saw a decrease in median days on market.
3 areas saw an increase in the three main metrics – avg and median sold, and price per square foot – areas 7 (South/Central/Zilker), 8W (Westlake/Eanes), and area SC (far southeast Caldwell County). I think SC is an anomoly because I know of nothing that would be driving demand way out there.

The fastest selling areas are 5E (East) SE (S. East), 10S (South) and NW (Northwest), all of which had average sold days of 51.
The slowest selling areas, all having average days on market greater that 100 are areas 1B (Central/Tarrytowm – 118), GTW (Georgetwon West – 114), HD (Dripping Springs – 118), LN (Lake North – 131), LS (Lake South/Lakeway – 122), PF (Pflugerville – 114), RN (River North/Steiner Ranch – 102).

As you can see, these slower selling areas are scattered to the four corners of Austin, and central. Interestingly, area 7, adjacent to 1B, is a fast selling area. We can generally say though that all of faster selling areas are closer in and most of the slower selling areas are further out, which is what I’d expect.

OK, on to the chart below. If you are unfamiliar with Austin MLS Areas, a map is at the bottom of the chart. As usual questions and comments are welcome.

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Austin Real Estate Market Update – June 2009 Stats

austin-sales-market-last-16-months-200906

We’re at mid-year (June 2009 stats) for the Austin real estate market stats, and still the Austin real estate market is hanging tough. We continue to see stubborn bouncing up and down from month to month, as the graph to the left shows (click to enlarge), but the overall yearly trend is holding steady at around 3% below last year’s YTD.

Let’s look at the breakdown of the Austin single family home sales for June 2009:

• Number of homes sold is down 9% (was down 27% last month) from 2,178 June 2008 to 1,986 June 2009.  This is a small decline compared to what we’ve been seeing for the past year, in which most months decline by more than 20% over the year before.

• Average list prices in Austin were down 2% over the same month last year to $265,868.
• Average sold prices in Austin were down 2.9% over the same month last year to $254,924 from $262,512 last year.
• Median sold price was up slightly (0.11%) to $200,500. Last year in June it was $200,278.
• Average List to Sold price ratio is 95.88%, down slightly from 96.40% the same month last year. Note that this reports the sold price compared to the last list price, not the original list price.
• Avg sold price per square foot is down almost 7% to $115 compared to $123 a year ago in Mar.
• Avg days on market is up 16 days (26%) from 61 last year to 77 this June.
• Median days on market is up 14 days (33%) from 36 days last year to 48 June this year.
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is down 12% over the same month last year, to 34% of all removed listings compared to 36% for the same month last year.

The chart below shows the June stats for 2009/2008, plus last month’s stats.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

May 2009 Jun 2009 June 2008 Yr % Change
# Sold 2060 1986 2178 -8.82%
Avg List $274,380 $265,868 $272,312 -2.37%
Med List $203,037 $207,000 $208,250 -0.60%
Avg Sold $265,878 $254,924 $262,512 -2.89%
Med Sold $199,788 $200,500 $200,278 0.11%
Sold/List % 96.90% 95.88% 96.40% -0.54%
Avg SQFT 2154 2224 2135 4.17%
Med SQFT 1945 2016 1955 3.12%
Avg $ SQFT $123.43 $114.62 $122.96 -6.78%
Avg DOM 61 77 61 26.23%
Median DOM 36 48 36 33.33%
# Expired 516 390 530 -26.42%
# Withdrawn 598 679 691 -1.74%
Not Sold 1114 1069 1221 -12.45%
Not Sold % 35.10% 34.99% 35.92% -2.59%

Below is the Year to data stats for the Austin sales market.

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Austin Real Estate Market Update – May 2009 Stats

The Austin real estate market continues to chug along in a manner that would be considered unimpressive if not for the fact that it was expected to be doing so much worse by so many. Average sold prices are down about 3.5% and the Median is down about 2.25%. We’ll take take that. I’m not complaining.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update May 2009
Houses only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

Apr 2009 May 2009 May 2008 Yr % Change
# Sold 1522 1610 2060 -21.84%
Avg List $245,130 $268,001 $274,380 -2.32%
Med List $198,170 $199,970 $203,037 -1.51%
Avg Sold $234,444 $256,603 $265,878 -3.49%
Med Sold $190,000 $195,250 $199,788 -2.27%
Sold/List % 95.64% 95.75% 96.90% -1.19%
Avg SQFT 2136 2208 2154 2.51%
Med SQFT 1950 1989 1945 2.26%
Avg $ SQFT $109.76 $116.22 $123.43 -5.85%
Avg DOM 74 75 61 22.95%
Median DOM 44 43 36 19.44%
# Expired 391 383 516 -25.78%
# Withdrawn 648 590 598 -1.34%
Not Sold 1039 973 1114 -12.66%
Not Sold % 40.57% 37.67% 35.10% 7.33%



One interesting thing to note is that the “Not Solds” have dipped down to 38%, barely higher than the 35% for the same month last year. This is the first time the Pending/Withdrawn listings (not solds) have been less than 40% of the total departing Austin MLS listings since June 2008, when they represented 37% of the departing listings. We hit 61% in Jan 2009 and 62% in Nov 2008, which meant a lot of sales efforts were ending in failure last fall and winter, but things have improved a lot since then.

Personally, Sylvia and I have 6 closings this month and we are really, really busy. It’s starting to feel like 2006/2007, but the numbers don’t look like 2006/2007. We’re running really fast on our hamster wheel, but putting together transactions that stick is as hard as ever.

Below is the Year to Date (YTD) chart for Austin, followed by several other charts and graphs that will bring you up to date on current conditions in the Austin real estate market.

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Austin Real Estate Investing – Then and Now

Since the end of WWII, rent prices in the U.S. have run parallel to relative sales prices consistently over time. By this I mean that a $60K home would normally rent for about $600 per month, or 1% of its sales value. The chart below illustrates the gap in sale to rent value ratios that has developed over the past 10 years in Austin in a certain class of home. I limited the stats to what I believe is the “meat and potatoes” or “bread and butter” rental stock. Those are homes between 1400-2200 square feet in size, minimum 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage and a maximum 4 bedroom, 3 bath, 3 car garage. 

Of course there are rental properties outside these parameters, but for an investor following the approach we follow – to stick with good, basic homes that will always attract good average renters –  these are the homes that accomplish that. So the chart below shows both sold and rented homes in Austin that fall into the above profile of basic rental stock. 

 

Austin Sales to Rent value ratio from 1999 to March 2009


What we see above is that sales values essentially ran away from rent values in the early 2000s in Austin. In 1999 and 2000, the ratios for typical rental stock were holding to historic ratios. 

Our sales market would have taken a larger dip after 2001 were it not for the investors fleeing the dot.com tech stock bust and turning to real estate. Also, we had home owners unable to sell and turning to leasing instead, which created excess rental inventory and drove down rent values. 

The big question is, will these lines ever converge again, and if so, will it be because rent values increase or sales values lag until rents catch up again? Or a combination. Or, alternatively, is the old rule gone forever and rent will continue forward in our lifetimes at a ratio of about 0.75% of sales value instead of the historic 1%. How does this affect the viability of real estate investing in Austin long term?

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Open House activity brisk in Austin and Round Rock

open-houseSteve and I have a few listings that have not had as much “traffic” as we would like, so the last few weeks I held open houses in a couple of our vacant staged listings just to get a feel for foot traffic in the neighborhoods and to hear what buyers are saying.

The first week, I held an open house at our Lost Creek listing at 1601 Bay Hill Drive. I placed several signs at the entrance to Lost Creek at Hwy 360, as well as numerous corners in Lost Creek, which brought in a lot of traffic.

The Lost Creek open house went better than I expected. There were 15 groups of people in 3 hours. It was really hopping! Normally a turnout of 5 to 8 people is considered “decent” on an open house, especially given the fact that sometimes the turnout can be zero. This was the first weekend of South by Southwest (SxSW Austin), so the atmosphere was lively and upbeat and people seemed to be enjoying being out and looking around. There were people from Denver and some from California that are planning to relocate to Austin. They all told me how “amazing” the prices are here in Austin. “Do you know how much a house like this would sell for in California?” Of course I’ve heard this before, and I know the listing I have in Lost Creek priced at $439k would be $1M+ in many parts of California.

The Lost Creek open house also drew several groups from Austin, many who are currently renting but out looking to see what’s available. Most of the attendees already have Austin agents they are working with. Of the four attendees who told me who their Austin Realtors were, I called all four agents to let them know their buyers seemed interested in the house and to invite them back for another look. I don’t know if this will produce a buyer, but I feel like I have to be doing everything I can to generate something.

My other open house was at our listing at 2512 Trailing Vine Way in Round Rock.

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Austin Real Estate Market Outlook for 2009

Well, 2008 is behind us and it seems like every Realtor in Austin except me and Sylvia are saying “good riddance”. For reasons I won’t fully go into in this blog post, Sylvia and I actually did better in 2008 than in 2007, by almost every measure. It was another record year for us, which I know isn’t fair to all those other Realtors who are suffering and dropping like flies, but we work hard. So, most agents are looking forward to 2009, expecting an upturn in Austin real estate sales activity by this summer.

Yesterday was the Austin Economic Housing Forecast, and here are some quotes from the panel members and todays article about the forecast in the Austin Statesman:
“The Austin-area housing market took a big hit last year, and more pain is in store for 2009”.
“Things are probably going to get a little bit tougher before they get better”.
“Austin-area builders started construction on slightly more than 8,000 houses last year, according to Metro-study, the lowest number since 1997”.
“home starts will plunge by another 25 percent this year to about 6,000. That would be down 63 percent from the peak in 2006”.
“Expectation is that we will continue to see a decline in pricing through 2009”.
“The 990 sales (in Nov 2008) were the lowest number for November since 1997”.
“The area will lose more jobs than it creates in 2009, much as it did in the tech-bust years of 2002 and 2003”.

Jeez, was there any positive news? Yes, a small bit.

“Austin’s housing market remains healthier than many across the country”.
“Austin’s economy also continues to outperform most areas of the country, but the number of jobs in Central Texas grew by 2.2 percent in 2008, about half the growth rate experienced in 2006 and 2007”.

So what does all of this mean? Well, it depends on who you are, whether you’re a buyer or seller, the price range of your home, location, whether you are moving up, down or out, your credit score, and a number of other factors. There is no one label that can properly describe the Austin real estate market as “good” or “bad” for all people, so let’s try to break it down and see which categories are the winners and which should be the waiters.

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