Austin Real Estate Market Update Aug 2018

The Austin real estate market has begun to level off and slow down a bit, but that fact is not yet fully reflected in the market statistics, other than Days on Market creeping up. Nevertheless, Median Sold price is up to $322K, an increase of 8% over August 2017.

I see more price drops coming across the listing update feeds I follow as well, and I also see more “back on market” listings.  This softening of the Austin real estate market may more fully appear in the September through December stats as I expect Days on Market to keep rising and price increases to slow.

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How to Save for a Home Purchase In Austin TX

Austin median home values 2008-July 2018

Historically in Texas, homes have appreciated at 4.5% annually (according to Texas A&M Real Estate Center). This is the expected appreciation we use when making real estate investment assumptions as well. For example, a $200,000 home would increase in value to $209,000 if appreciation was 4.5% for that year.

If you wanted to save for 1 year a 5% downpayment for a $200,000 home in Austin, you would save 5% of the future value of the home, not the current value. You would save for a $209K purchase, $10,450, not $10,000, if saving just for 1 year.

Starting in about 2012, homes in Austin have appreciated at a much greater rate, closer to 8% annually. This makes it harder to save for a down payment, like chasing a vanishing horizon. Also, there are no more $200,000 homes. The median value of a home in Austin is now about $400,000 if you want to actually be in Austin itself, versus the greater Austin outskirts areas.

So, today, if you want to save for a $400K median value Austin home, and you want to buy it in 3 years with a 5% downpayment, for example, and 8% annual appreciation rates continue, you will need to assume the median value Austin home will cost $503,885 in 3 year. That really sucks doesn’t it? If you are trying to live cheap and save for a downpayment? Waiting 3 years will cost you another $100K in purchase price.

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Are Austin Real Estate Buyers Too Picky?

Picky Home Buyers

One of my favorite pastimes while driving in Austin is listening to Bloomberg News on my XM Radio. More specifically, I enjoy hearing interviews and discussions with people who explain and justify the positions they take on a wide range of (mostly) business topics. This includes small business, the economy, politics, real estate, etc., but also more specific micro topics such as the current and future outlook for farm tractor sales. And, thankfully, Bloomberg Radio is free of the bluster, yelling and arguing heard on the other XM Radio news stations. These are, for the most part, reasoned subject matter experts giving their honest take on things.

Call me nerdy, wonky, or whatever, but I really dig listening to this sort of stuff. When not listening to it, I’m reading about it. I believe it helps me better understand my own life and business. And it helps fulfill one of my ongoing goals, which is to never stop learning.

Recently, a dating expert was being interviewed about the business of match making sites and the state of modern “mate seeking”. She also discussed the mistakes she sees made by most aspiring romantics. Turns out there are a lot of frustrated romantics unable to find what they want in a mate. This despite the fact that finding and “connecting” with good, quality candidate dates has never been easier. I was struck by how similar her points were to the typical “match seeking” efforts of real estate buyers looking for the “perfect” home.

The quote that stuck with me most was related to how many daters reject someone who actually possesses more than 85% of what the seeker says she “must have” in a mate. To that point, she said. “Do you know how hard it is to get to 85%?  If you find someone who meets 85% of your most important criteria, you should be running, not walking, to the alter with that person”. That’s what she said. Run, don’t walk to the alter.

Daters, apparently, allow too many small, picky “deal breaker” distractions into the evaluation process. “I don’t want to date a guy with thin hair” or “I can’t see myself with a guy who would wear a checkered shirt”. But if the guy loves horses, wants kids, and appreciates and “gets” her sarcastic irreverent humor, he’s going to make the great husband she says she wants because he meets the most important set of criteria. Even if he’s only average looking and a little too short.

Dating is more complicated than house hunting because the three (and only three) most important criteria a mate seeker should be evaluating will differ from person to person. House hunters, on the other hand, have had the same three static criteria forever – Location, Price and Condition (which includes age/size). It’s really not complicated at all. But modern buyers have made it so, by allowing too much information and data into the equation.

So, why do so many Austin buyers reject homes that are priced right, in the desired location, and of acceptable condition/size? Are Austin real estate buyers too picky? Yes. And many are just as frustrated as the single 34-year-old gals that dating expert was talking about.

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Austin Real Estate Market Snapshop March 2012

Austin Home sale statistcs

This isn’t a full-blown market update, but I wanted to post a few graphs real quick to show current market activity and movement. Let’s start with the graph below showing Average and Median Sold values for homes in Austin for the past 49 months.

Austin Real Estate Sales Graph

So, what looked like a pretty bleak December/January (lowest of lows for past 49 months. See the previous bottoms) quickly turned into an upswing. This isn’t necessarily unusual. In fact, if you look back at every May in the chart, that’s when the price peaks normally occur, and we’re heading that direction again this year. What is unusual is the fast and sudden absorption rate of homes combined with shrinking inventory. This is a sudden “spike”, at minimum, and may develop into a sustained upswing. I’ve been monitoring this and don’t see any let-up yet.

Let’s look at the Active/Pending chart below.

Austin Sold/Expired Graph 1999 thru 2010

Above, we see the aftermath of the Tech Bust in 2000/2001, and what happened to the Austin sales market in 2003. For 2003 there was an inverted Sold/Not Sold ratio. More listings failed to sell than actually sold. That’s a really weak, sour market when that happens. Dismal in fact.  But then it happened again in 2010 in Austin. More sellers gave up (Expired or Withdrew) than successfully sold their homes in Austin. 2010 was the 4th year in a row of declining sales volume.

Then in 2011, we see these lines achieving separation again as the number of failed sales drops and the number of closed sales increases. And the separation is sudden and pronounced, indicating very strong buyer demand.

Now let’s see what that graph would look like for just the first 3 months of 2012.

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Austin 2011 Real Estate Sales Breakdown by MLS Area

The Austin real estate 2011 sales breakdown by MLS area is below. Most areas of Austin are holding steady. I’ve color coded the results columns of each area to show whether or not that area performed above or below the greater Austin market on whole.

For example, let’s look at MLS area “W” (West Austin).

MLS Area Year # Sold Avg Sold Med Sold Avg SQFT Avg PSF Avg Days Med Days
W 2011 285 $475,430 $340,000 2,960 $160.62 84 55

2010 269 $411,614 $338,500 2,820 $145.96 75 46

Change 5.95% 15.50% 0.44% 4.96% 10.04% 12.00% 19.57%

 

This shows are W outperformed the Austin real estate market in some categories, but not in others. Those categories break down as follows:

Number of Sale: The number of sales overall in the Austin market rose by 6.9% in 2011. Number of sales rose by 5.95% in MLS Area W, so it gets flagged a red colow code for under-performing the overall market.

Avg Sold Price, Median Sold Price, and Sold Price per Square Foot all outperformed the market as a whole. Avg and Median Days on Market underperformed as well.

That said, pricing metrics are the most important in determining the direction of the market, so keep that in mind as you review the various areas and how they did in 2011 compared to 2010. Squre footage is not ranked but is shown for referrence and used to calculate sold price per sqft.

The color coding allows you to see in a glance areas that did well, did not do well, and that were mixed. A row of “all red” means the area under-performed on all metrics. Several areas unfortunately did just that.

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Austin Real Estate Market Update – October 2011 Stats

Real Estate Market Stats

Below are the Austin housing market stats for October 2011 and year to date.

Austin Sales Market Update – October 2011
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Oct 2010 Yr % Change
# Sold 1601 1346 1202 11.98%
Avg List $262,989 $267,793 $278,846 -3.96%
Med List $197,999 $199,900 $206,500 -3.20%
Avg Sold $252,815 $257,957 $264,112 -2.33%
Med Sold $192,000 $192,650 $199,925 -3.64%
Sold/List % 96.13% 96.33% 94.72% 1.70%
Avg SQFT 2226 2228 2276 -2.11%
Med SQFT 2044 1992 2058 -3.21%
Avg $ SQFT $113.57 $115.78 $116.04 -0.23%
Avg DOM 76 78 87 -10.34%
Median DOM 52 55 67 -17.91%
# Expired 478 434 704 -38.35%
# Withdrawn 800 703 976 -27.97%
Not Sold 1278 1137 1680 -32.32%
Not Sold % 44.39% 45.79% 58.29% -21.45%

 

As shown above, average and median sold prices are down 2.3% and 3.6% for Oct 2011 compared to Oct 2010. The number of homes sold increased and the number of failed sales efforts (Withdrawn or Expired) decreased. The sold to list price ratio increased a bit and the Days on Market improved.

Nothing really suprising or new here. The Austin real etstae market is still moving along somewhat, treading water for the most part. See the Year to Date and 44 month graphs below.

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