austin real estate market 2 - Crossland Real Estate

Austin Buyers and Sellers-How Much is a Dollar Worth to You?

Last year I made (saved) $120 by spending 3 minutes on the telephone. All I did was call Sheraton Hotel in Seattle and say “I’d like to convert my reservation to the internet rate“. A couple of minutes later it was done. No fuss about it. I then paid $30 less per night during our 4 night stay, saving me $120 plus whatever the taxes would have been on the extra $120, so probably more like $150. That paid for all of mine and Sylvia’s dining out.

Why didn’t I make the original reservation with the internet rate? Because the “internet rate” is non-refundable and is charged to the credit card immediately. The “normal” reservation is refundable and you don’t pay until you stay. A lot can happen in the two or three months between a hotel reservation and an arrival, so paying in full months in advance, and having it be non-refundable, just isn’t the best way to manage your travel expenses. The smart-money thing to do is make a fully refundable hotel reservation and convert it just prior to your arrival, thereby receiving the benefits of a refundable reservation at the discounted non-refundable price.

I use this example because so much of our modern money management efforts require knowing stuff and doing something extra as a result of what you know. Prices that seem “cheaper” are often not, especially in the airline and hotel industry when you factor in the risk value of up front non-refundable charges. And they gloss over that small detail that when you make the reservation (and/or you don’t read the fine print). You have to know about it, or learn about it the unfortunate way, when life circumstances force the cancellation of a trip.

I bring up this topic because so many real estate consumers get bogged down in the infinitesimally small cost factors of buying and owning a home, as if the homes we live in are the only source of expenses and savings in life. And, as American consumers, we often remain blissfully unaware of the multitude of simple things that can be done daily to, as Clark Howard puts it, save more, spend less, and avoid being ripped off.

Austin Real Estate Market – 2010 Breakdown by MLS Area

by Steve Crossland

Below is a chart breaking down the 2010/2009 sales comparisons by MLS Area for the Austin real estate market. This time I’m adding a couple of new things. First, there is color coding on each of the summary rows for each area. A green shade indicates “improvement” in the measured metric. I put “improved” in quotes because it’s debatable what that means, and for whom, so perhaps a better word to use would simply be “increase” toward seller’s market. Note that a decrease in Days on Market is an “improvement”, however, as it means homes are selling faster, so a negative number on DOM is coded green and vice-versa, whereas the other negative numbers are red. Confusing enough? I hope not.

Next, I added a new column called SP/OLP which is the Sold Price divided by the Original List Price. I think this is a useful metric to observe as it informs us of the gap between the original list price a seller was hoping to obtain and the ultimate sold price achieved. This is more useful to know than the more commonly reported metric of SP/LP (Sold Price/List Price) because it doesn’t disguise the price drops that occurred before the home eventually sold.

In other words, a home that started at a list price of $300K, was eventually dropped to $270K, and then sold for the $270K list price, would produce a SP/LP ratio of 100%, but a SP/OLP of 90%. The 90% is a more accurate measure of market strength or weakness in a given area. You’ll see below that some areas are right at 95% (which is pretty good) and some are below 90%, which is a tougher market requiring bigger price drops.

OK then, let’s take a quick look at the new format using the cumulative sold data for all of 2010 compared to 2009.

All MLS	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg SQFT	Avg PSF	Avg Days	Med Days	SP/OLP
2010	17,709	$255,049	$195,000	2,214	$115.20	73	48	93.19
2009	18,636	$245,765	$190,000	2,177	$112.89	75	47	95.2
Change	-4.97%	3.78%	2.63%	1.70%	2.04%	-2.67%	2.13%	-2.11%

So, with the color coding, this allows a “quick glance” gleaning of which areas saw increases/decrease in the measered metrics across the board. We can see above, looking at the entire Austin MLS market as a whole, that the average sold price increased 3.78%, median sold also increased, by 2.63%, Sold Price Per Square Foot increase 2.04%, and homes sold faster when looking at Avg Days on Market. But we also see that 5% fewer homes sold (lower demand) and that the median DOM and the SP/OLP ratios worsened. This “mixed” market is in fact what most areas produce.

One last aside, if an MLS Area is mostly red all the way across, such as Area 10S, does that mean buyers should avoid that area? Absolutely not. This is a look in the rear view mirror and doesn’t necessarily predict the future or indicate a trend. Same with areas that did well in 2010. This is just a snap shop of what happened in the given year 2010 compared to the year prior. If you own a home in an area that had a dog year, your particular neighborhood or size/price of home may have perfromed differently, and that won’t be reflected in this type of macro analysis of area-wide stats.

OK, the entire Austin MLS is broken down by MLS Area in the chart below. As usual, questions, comments, observations are welcome.

Will recent low interest rates stunt future Austin move-up activity?

by Steve Crossland

One of our buyers closed last month with a 3.87% interest rate. We saw many sub-4% loans the past several months, though rates have now climbed back above 4.6%.

Let’s imagine hypothetical first time buyers with a toddler who closed this year with an interest rate below 4%. Fast forward 5 years to 2015 and imagine they now have a 6 year old and a 3 year old. The career is going well, income is up, savings account is healthy, cars and student loans are paid off, the economy is good and the house is starting to feel a bit small.

This is the profile of a typical move-up buyer in Austin. Move-up buyers play an important role in the real estate market by providing resale housing stock for first timers to buy and, simultaneously, providing demand for the mid and upper range homes in Austin. We need this “move-up churn”. It’s good for the real estate market and Austin’s economy.

But now let’s also imagine that in 5 years from now that the best interest rate available on a new mortgage is an unfathomable 6.75%. Don’t think it will go that “high”? That’s not ever a “high” interest rate! And yes, it will get that high again – eventually. How hard will it be for a move-up buyer to let go of that 3.75% loan on the current home? Very hard, I’m going to bet.

I think the psychological urge to hold onto that loan is going to be very strong. And I think it will factor into the move-up decision more than we may currently realize.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – Aug 2010 Stats

by Steve Crossland

The average year-to-date sold price for homes in Austin is $256K, which just broke through the (peak) year 2007 YTD of $255K.

Now, there is a lot of discussion and caveats that must be considered along with this milestone statistic, but nevertheless, look at the graph below for a visual representation of where average and median home prices in Austin stand right now relative to past years. Further down you’ll find additional monthly and YTD stats and an overview of what Sylvia and I are seeing in the real estate market in Austin as we continue to wheeze through the tax credit hangover and head into the fall/winter months .

Looking at the above graph, one might assume that home prices are rising in Austin. Actually, what’s happening more specifically is that fewer lower priced homes are selling than before, as a percentage of all homes sold. This is dragging the average and medians upward. Nevertheless, the graph remains what it is and to the casual observer, newspaper reporter, or market cheerleaders, this will be fodder for the simple utterance that “prices are rising in Austin”. The real question is, is your particular home worth more today than is was at the peak in 2007?, and the answer is “probably not”, unless it’s a sub $200K home. The graph is really a reflection of segment and price range shifts.

Below is the chart for August sales, YTD sales, a Pending Sales analysis, and some other stuff that I hope you’ll find interesting and useful.

Austin Pending Sales Update – Through May 2010

by Steve Crossland

Austin Pending Listings Graph 2007-April 2010

Take a look at this chart showing the number of homes that go under contract, or “Pending”, in Austin each month over the past several years. The green line is 2010. I could almost stop writing at this point and just let the chart tell the entire story. But have a careful look at the Austin real estate market behavior for the past several years, and then see what our government caused to happen in April and May with the $8K tax credit.

The writing was on the wall last month when I wrote about the Tax Credit Effect on the Austin Real Estate Market. We had a record number of homes go Pending in April, and May was looking pretty slow, and that didn’t change. So we end up with a record high followed by a record low month in terms of number of homes going under contract.

And in June, the hangover persists. As we head into the last weekend of what is historically the second busiest month of the year, the Austin real estate market is getting ready to lay another rotten egg. Thanks Tax Credit, for sucking the life out of the market, even with interest rates yesterday at 50 YEAR LOWS!. At present, we have about 1250 homes that have gone Pending in June, so even if we have a brisk next 6 days, you can look at the chart and see that June will remain substantially below the expected level under normal conditions.

What does this look like out in the field?

Is Rental Property Investing in Austin Still Profitable?

by Steve Crossland

As someone who’s bought and sold a bunch of rentals, and helped other investors buy, sell and manage investment property in Austin for a number of years, I’m about to ask a question that might seem counter to my professional mission of being in service to real estate investors.

Is rental property investing in Austin still a good way to build long term wealth?

My answer, for a lot of people, is “probably not”.

Let me rephrase the question.

Is rental property investing in Austin a good way to lose money and create financial stress in one’s life?

Absolutely. More so than ever.

So, am I saying you shouldn’t invest in real estate in Austin, or elsewhere? No, I think everyone should consider doing so. But I do think, after careful consideration, a much higher percentage of people should decide against it than would have been the case 15 years ago. The opportunity for mistakes, bad decisions and cash flow disruption for the real estate investor today is much greater than in past years.

In other words, your margin of error is very thin. You better know what you’re doing, or have a good adviser. Success is harder to achieve than if you started in the 1980s or 1990s simply because today’s ratios are thinner. The financial and psychological profile of a good candidate real estate investor today has a much higher bar to clear than in years past. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Austin Buyers and Sellers-How Much is a Dollar Worth to You?

Austin Real Estate Market – 2010 Breakdown by MLS Area

Will recent low interest rates stunt future Austin move-up activity?

Austin Real Estate Market Update – Aug 2010 Stats

Austin Pending Sales Update – Through May 2010

Is Rental Property Investing in Austin Still Profitable?

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