Austin Real Estate Sale Stats by MLS Area – Sept 2009 YTD

Austin’s real estate market is a “market of markets”, and thus the overall news reported about real estate activity in the Austin Metro area may or may not be reflective of conditions in the specific area in which you live, or the home you own, or the home you want to buy. Each quarter I break down the Austin Real Estate market year-to-date stats into MLS area-specific comparisons of the year before so we can take a look at the variations among different pockets of Austin.

If you follow these quarterly Austin MLS breakdowns, you know that there is always variation among different MLS areas and price ranges, for better or worse. This Year-to-Date report through Sept 2009 is a head scratcher for me though, mainly because the number of Austin MLS areas that normally outperform the overall market has dwindled substantially. Based on what Sylvia and I are experiencing in the field, I would have guessed the opposite to be true. And the market overall is holding up.

But here’s what I’m talking about …

Of the 44 Austin Metro MLS areas tracked below…
5 Austin MLS areas had an increase in average sold prices (3 months ago it was 11)
7 Austin MLS areas had an increase in median sold prices (3 months ago it was 11)
1 Austin MLS area had an increase in average sold price per square foot (3 months ago it was 7).
4 of the Austin MLS areas saw a decrease in average days on market (same as 3 months ago)
7 of the Austin MLS areas saw a decrease in median days on market (3 months ago it was 6).
1 (only 1) Austin MLS area saw an increase in the three main pricing metrics – avg and median sold, and price per square foot. Three areas were in this clug at mid-year.

So does this mean the Austin real estate market is getting worse? As usual, it depends. From a statistical standpoint, more areas are trending down than up. But if you ask Sylvia and I if we’re busy, yes we are. We had 4 closings in October and three on the board already for November, which is unusual for the slow season. On the other hand, if you ask an agent who specializes in luxury homes in Lakeway, they will probably say things are dismal. And I do in fact have a listing on 10 acres in Dripping Springs that isn’t getting any showings even though we think it’s under priced.

Add in the government interference/intervention in normal real estate market activity with the tax credit incentives, the nervous jitters of the stock market, artificially low interest rates, appraisal issues, and what we have is a number of variables pulling and tugging with and against one another. Bottom line, overall, at 3% down for the year on average sold price and about even on medial sold price, Austin’s market is doing about what we think it should, as a whole. It’s just interesting to see all the underlying cross currents.

That said, below is the breakdown summary, then you can study the chart yourself and see how your areas of interest are doing. As usual, questions and comments are welcome.

Read more

Austin Real Estate Market Update for August 2009 Sales

Austin Real Estate values for August 2009 are down about 5% from the same month last year. Average sales prices for the 1,657 houses that sold are down 5.12%. Median sold prices are down 4.80%. The number of houses sold is down 15% from August 2008, which is less of a decrease than we’ve seen for most of the past 12+ months.  The sold to list price gap is 96%, which is the same as a year ago and the same as last month. The average list price was $257K and the average sold price $247K, so the average home is selling for about $10K below the final list price. Note that this measures the gap only between the last list price, not the original list price. Unfortunately I have to work harder to obtain the ration of sold to original list price so I don’t calculate it monthly, but my best guess is that it’s probably somewhere between 90% to 92%.

The Days on Market keep climbing, now at 73 days average and 43 days median on market. Even though that’s higher than last year, those are still fairl decent DOM numbers.

The Not Solds (Expired and Withdrawn listings) continue to be fairly high at 45%. This means that of all the listings that departed the MLS in August (no longer Active for Sale), 45% of the listings departed as failed sales efforts. This tells us what we already know, which is that many sellers are not desperate and they refuse to drop their list price below whatever mental threshhold they’ve established, regardless of what the market data says. This in turn is keeping our sold prices reasonably stable but also may be creating a shadow inventory of pent up future listings that will come online in the next 2 or 3 years once seller perceive a better selling environment.

Below is the chart comparing August with the month and year before. Further below is the usual collection of monthly charts and graphs.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update August 2009
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

Jul 2009 Aug 2009 Aug 2008 Yr % Change
# Sold 1972 1657 1948 -14.94%
Avg List $258,562 $256,663 $270,759 -5.21%
Med List $199,900 $197,500 $206,352 -4.29%
Avg Sold $248,984 $247,072 $260,411 -5.12%
Med Sold $195,000 $190,400 $200,000 -4.80%
Sold/List % 96.30% 96.26% 96.18% 0.09%
Avg SQFT 2184 2199 2191 0.37%
Med SQFT 1981 1971 1992 -1.05%
Avg $ SQFT $114.00 $112.36 $118.85 -5.47%
Avg DOM 70 73 64 14.06%
Median DOM 44 43 44 -2.27%
# Expired 476 491 740 -33.65%
# Withdrawn 825 900 876 2.74%
Not Sold 1301 1391 1616 -13.92%
Not Sold % 39.75% 45.64% 45.34% 0.65%



Next is the Year to data chart showing how our Austin real estate market is doing compared to the market at the same point in 2008.

Read more

Austin Real Estate Stats – 2009 Midyear Breakdown by Austin MLS Area

Below are the Austin real estate market mid-year stats broken down by MLS area. I break the stats down by area each quarter because the macro stats I post each month don’t tell the entire story of our market. Location and price range factors are important, so each quarter I break down the overall stats into the specific MLS areas and compare them to the same time period (first 6 months of the year in this case) from the year before. You can check the areas in which you are interested to see how they are holding up, but even within each area there are pockets and submarkets that will defy the greater trends, for better or worse. Here is a quick summary.

For all of Austin, per my previous stats post a couple of days ago, the average sales price is down about 3% and the median sales price for all of Austin MLS sales combined is up slightly (0.08%). Not bad when viewed in context.

Of the 44 Austin Metro MLS areas tracked below…
11 had an increase in average sold prices, exactly 1/4 of all areas.
11 also had an increase in median sold prices (though not the same exact 11)
7 of the MLS area saw an increase in average sold price per square foot.
4 of the areas saw a decrease in days on market (homes selling faster)
6 of the areas saw a decrease in median days on market.
3 areas saw an increase in the three main metrics – avg and median sold, and price per square foot – areas 7 (South/Central/Zilker), 8W (Westlake/Eanes), and area SC (far southeast Caldwell County). I think SC is an anomoly because I know of nothing that would be driving demand way out there.

The fastest selling areas are 5E (East) SE (S. East), 10S (South) and NW (Northwest), all of which had average sold days of 51.
The slowest selling areas, all having average days on market greater that 100 are areas 1B (Central/Tarrytowm – 118), GTW (Georgetwon West – 114), HD (Dripping Springs – 118), LN (Lake North – 131), LS (Lake South/Lakeway – 122), PF (Pflugerville – 114), RN (River North/Steiner Ranch – 102).

As you can see, these slower selling areas are scattered to the four corners of Austin, and central. Interestingly, area 7, adjacent to 1B, is a fast selling area. We can generally say though that all of faster selling areas are closer in and most of the slower selling areas are further out, which is what I’d expect.

OK, on to the chart below. If you are unfamiliar with Austin MLS Areas, a map is at the bottom of the chart. As usual questions and comments are welcome.

Read more

Austin Real Estate Market Update – June 2009 Stats

austin-sales-market-last-16-months-200906

We’re at mid-year (June 2009 stats) for the Austin real estate market stats, and still the Austin real estate market is hanging tough. We continue to see stubborn bouncing up and down from month to month, as the graph to the left shows (click to enlarge), but the overall yearly trend is holding steady at around 3% below last year’s YTD.

Let’s look at the breakdown of the Austin single family home sales for June 2009:

• Number of homes sold is down 9% (was down 27% last month) from 2,178 June 2008 to 1,986 June 2009.  This is a small decline compared to what we’ve been seeing for the past year, in which most months decline by more than 20% over the year before.

• Average list prices in Austin were down 2% over the same month last year to $265,868.
• Average sold prices in Austin were down 2.9% over the same month last year to $254,924 from $262,512 last year.
• Median sold price was up slightly (0.11%) to $200,500. Last year in June it was $200,278.
• Average List to Sold price ratio is 95.88%, down slightly from 96.40% the same month last year. Note that this reports the sold price compared to the last list price, not the original list price.
• Avg sold price per square foot is down almost 7% to $115 compared to $123 a year ago in Mar.
• Avg days on market is up 16 days (26%) from 61 last year to 77 this June.
• Median days on market is up 14 days (33%) from 36 days last year to 48 June this year.
• Number of “Not Sold” (exp or withdrawn) is down 12% over the same month last year, to 34% of all removed listings compared to 36% for the same month last year.

The chart below shows the June stats for 2009/2008, plus last month’s stats.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

May 2009 Jun 2009 June 2008 Yr % Change
# Sold 2060 1986 2178 -8.82%
Avg List $274,380 $265,868 $272,312 -2.37%
Med List $203,037 $207,000 $208,250 -0.60%
Avg Sold $265,878 $254,924 $262,512 -2.89%
Med Sold $199,788 $200,500 $200,278 0.11%
Sold/List % 96.90% 95.88% 96.40% -0.54%
Avg SQFT 2154 2224 2135 4.17%
Med SQFT 1945 2016 1955 3.12%
Avg $ SQFT $123.43 $114.62 $122.96 -6.78%
Avg DOM 61 77 61 26.23%
Median DOM 36 48 36 33.33%
# Expired 516 390 530 -26.42%
# Withdrawn 598 679 691 -1.74%
Not Sold 1114 1069 1221 -12.45%
Not Sold % 35.10% 34.99% 35.92% -2.59%

Below is the Year to data stats for the Austin sales market.

Read more

Austin Real Estate Market Update – May 2009 Stats

The Austin real estate market continues to chug along in a manner that would be considered unimpressive if not for the fact that it was expected to be doing so much worse by so many. Average sold prices are down about 3.5% and the Median is down about 2.25%. We’ll take take that. I’m not complaining.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update May 2009
Houses only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data

Apr 2009 May 2009 May 2008 Yr % Change
# Sold 1522 1610 2060 -21.84%
Avg List $245,130 $268,001 $274,380 -2.32%
Med List $198,170 $199,970 $203,037 -1.51%
Avg Sold $234,444 $256,603 $265,878 -3.49%
Med Sold $190,000 $195,250 $199,788 -2.27%
Sold/List % 95.64% 95.75% 96.90% -1.19%
Avg SQFT 2136 2208 2154 2.51%
Med SQFT 1950 1989 1945 2.26%
Avg $ SQFT $109.76 $116.22 $123.43 -5.85%
Avg DOM 74 75 61 22.95%
Median DOM 44 43 36 19.44%
# Expired 391 383 516 -25.78%
# Withdrawn 648 590 598 -1.34%
Not Sold 1039 973 1114 -12.66%
Not Sold % 40.57% 37.67% 35.10% 7.33%



One interesting thing to note is that the “Not Solds” have dipped down to 38%, barely higher than the 35% for the same month last year. This is the first time the Pending/Withdrawn listings (not solds) have been less than 40% of the total departing Austin MLS listings since June 2008, when they represented 37% of the departing listings. We hit 61% in Jan 2009 and 62% in Nov 2008, which meant a lot of sales efforts were ending in failure last fall and winter, but things have improved a lot since then.

Personally, Sylvia and I have 6 closings this month and we are really, really busy. It’s starting to feel like 2006/2007, but the numbers don’t look like 2006/2007. We’re running really fast on our hamster wheel, but putting together transactions that stick is as hard as ever.

Below is the Year to Date (YTD) chart for Austin, followed by several other charts and graphs that will bring you up to date on current conditions in the Austin real estate market.

Read more

Are Price Reduced Homes the Best Deals?

price-reduced-signAn interesting news announcement came to me the other day. The title was Trulia Introduces ‘Hair Cut’ Search Engine”. This is a new feature that allows someone searching for real estate listings on Trulia to weed out listings that haven’t had a price reduction, and thus view only listing that have had a price reduction.

Trulia CEO Pete Flint says:

“It doesn’t matter if your price point is $200,000 or $2 million, in these difficult times people are searching for the best deals they can find on homes. Our new price-reduction functionality makes it easier for people to find the home of their dreams without laboring through unwanted results.”

Oh brother. What a bunch of hogwash. This does not in any way make it easier to identify better deals. And why would a listing that hasn’t had a price reduction be an “unwanted result?” This gimmick joins the list of stupid and useless features and functionality pushed out to unwitting online consumers who gladly eat it up because they don’t know any better. It does give Trulia a reason to push a news release, but their programmers could have been better utilized doing something less worthless than this. Such is the world we live in today.

News flash for Trulia: the best priced listings are already marked “Pending”, and most went Pending before a price reduction occurred. OK? This is an ascertainable fact, not a marketing gimmick to boost web traffic. 

For example, of the 75 listings currently pending in SW Austin, 10 had price reductions. That’s 13% of the listings that have already been deemed the best out there by real buyers writing real offers. Of the 173 listings still on the market in SW Austin (MLS Area SWW), 39 have had price reductions, which is 23% of the available listings. Which homes are a better buy? The ones that are Pending, or the 23% of homes still available that have had a price drop? And why would someone only want to know about 23% of the available listings in an area when searching for a home? Only a really stupid buyer would restrict his search in such a manner, Mr. Flint. 

So, what factors do help us determine which listings are a good buy?

Read more