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Austin Real Estate Market – 2009 MLS Area Breakdown

The 2009 Austin real estate market saw most MLS Area sales stats decline somewhat. In fact, 2008 was a stronger year than 2009 on most metrics, though 2009 overall is not what anyone would term a “bad” year for Austin real estate, especially when compared to other U.S. real estate markets. Here is a summary of the breakdown:

Of the 50 Austin MLS areas tracked in the report below, 10 experienced an increase in average sold price. That’s only 20% of MLS areas enjoying a price increase compared to 64% of the Austin MLS areas with rising average prices in 2008.

Of the 50 Austin MLS areas tracked, 11 experienced an increase in median sold price. That’s 22% for 2009 compared to 60% of the Austin MLS areas with rising median sold prices in 2008.

Of the 50 Austin MLS areas tracked, only one (area 5E) experienced an increase in average sold price per square foot. That’s only 2% compared to 55% of the Austin MLS areas with rising sold prices per square foot in 2008.

Of the 50 Austin MLS areas tracked, NONE experienced an increase in ALL THREE of the above metrics – average, median and per sqft sold prices. That’s 0% for 2009 compared to 40% of the Austin MLS areas with rising metrics in the main three performance measurements for 2008.

Check the chart below to see how your area did.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – December 2009

by Steve Crossland

The Austin real estate market ended 2009 on an up note, with both average and median sold prices up more than 5% over Dec 2008. Oh, but wait … December 2008 was a dismal month because we all still thought the financial world was falling off a cliff. But the stats are what they are so let’s have a look.

Number of homes sold is down 4.39% from a year ago, which is a small decrease compared to the numbers we were seeing earlier this year. Average list price is up 3.71% to $276,387, Median List Price is up 5.22% to $199,900, Average sold price is up 5.15%, Median sold is up 5.39%, the Sold/List % is up 1.39% to 95.54%. And Average Price per Square Foot of sold homes is also up, by 1.11%, to $115.36.

Average Days on Market was up about 4% to 82 days, but Median Days on Market was down 14% to 48 days. The number of Not Sold was down also, though at 56% still a big number, but that’s normal for December when lots of sellers give up for the holidays.

Here is the chart showing Nov/Dec 2009 and Dec 2008 sales stats.

Austin Real Estate Sales Market Update December 2009 Sales
Homes only (condos, duplexes, etc. not included) compiled from Austin MLS data
	Nov 2009	Dec 2009	Dec 2008	Yr % Change
# Sold	1515	1219	1275	-4.39%
Avg List	$252,963	$276,387	$266,498	3.71%
Med List	$185,000	$199,900	$189,990	5.22%
Avg Sold	$242,349	$264,061	$251,128	5.15%
Med Sold	$180,000	$194,858	$184,900	5.39%
Sold/List %	95.80%	95.54%	94.23%	1.39%
Avg SQFT	2113	2289	2201	4.00%
Med SQFT	1896	2050	1981	3.48%
Avg $ SQFT	$114.69	$115.36	$114.10	1.11%
Avg DOM	73	82	79	3.80%
Median DOM	44	48	56	-14.29%
# Expired	474	854	866	-1.39%
# Withdrawn	832	699	851	-17.86%
Not Sold	1306	1553	1717	-9.55%
Not Sold %	46.30%	56.02%	57.39%	-2.37%

So, that’s a bunch of numbers, but what does it all mean? Is the Austin real estate market rebounding from the slight decline of 2009? I think it is. 2010 will be better than 2009 for sellers. Buyers will still find plenty of good opportunities though.

School District Boundary Changes Can Affect Home Values

by Steve Crossland

The elementary school for a rental home I own looks like it’s going to be switched from Oak Hill Elementary to Patton Elementary. My rental home is located in Scenic Book West, shown in green/turquoise just to the left of the words “Oak Hill” on the map below. Note that kids in this neighborhood, who previously attended Oak Hill Elementary will now be driven, literally, right past Oak Hill elementary further down the road to Patton. This is to provide relief to Oak Hill Elementary, which is well over capacity and still growing. But these kids will still track into Small Middle and Bowie High.

Austin ISD Boundary Map SW Austin

In this case, because Oak Hill and Patton elementary schools are both solid, reasonably well regarded elementary schools, I don’t expect a negative impact to the value of my home. Therefore, when I attended a public meeting recently at Clayton Elementary regarding the boundary changes for Southwest Austin elementary schools, I mainly wanted to listen to what other home owners and parents had to say about some of the other proposed changes. Also, at that time, my neighborhood wasn’t slated to be switched, though I knew it was a possibility being considered.

One of the proposed changes to the boundary map would have carved out a small section of Village at Western Oaks which currently attends Mills Elementary (shown in magenta above) and sent those kids across Mopac to Boone Elementary, and a different Middle to High school track. Mills parents turned out in force to oppose this ridiculously stupid and offensive boundary change, which would have not only sent the affected kids to poorer performing schools on the other side of a major freeway (as opposed to current walking distance to Mills), but forever separated them school-socially from neighborhood friends living just blocks away.

This, in turn, would have likely resulted in many of the parents of the relocated kids deciding to sell their homes and relocate back within their desired school track, which in turn would have created a sudden inventory spike in a small pocket of now less desirable homes, due to the newly imposed inferior school track. And, finally, Realtors like me and Sylvia would advise buyers against buying in this oddball pocket of the Village at Western Oaks because we fear it won’t hold value as well as the surrounding homes attending better school tracks.

Do schools and school tracks affect housing demand and values in this way? Of course they do. In a major way. And, as a Realtor team that pushes the value buying and owning homes that attend good schools (whether you have kids or not), Sylvia and I think it’s important that buyers understand just how unreliable and impermanent some of the Austin ISD tracking maps can be. Why the shifting school boundary maps?

Austin Real Estate Market Update – Nov 2009

by Steve Crossland

Maybe I should start terming my Austin real estate market update blogs “Austin Real Estate Market, as Influenced by the Federal Government”. Indeed, the word “market” does need an asterisk next to it for the Sept-Nov time frame in Austin. Instead of taking its natural course, whatever that might have been, the lower end of the market was stimulated by government incentives for the Latter part of 2009 through November, and the sub-$200K buyers responded. Thus we see on the graph below the drastic drop in the average and median sold price for November 2009 as the final batch of first time home buyer tax credit sales closed.

It’s not hard to see what the real estate market is doing, but it is hard to know for sure why it’s doing it, or, that is, to what extent the number of sales (way up) and the average/median values (down) are influenced by these the artificially low interest rates and the buyer incentives, both being caused by government intervention in the market. Some economist believe that once these stimulus measures peter out, as they will later this year, the national real estate market is in for another big drop in prices as foreclosures will snowball to the highest levels we’ve seen yet.

So what does all of this mean for Austin? Is Austin real estate in generally good enough shape to ride it out better than most markets? I think so. Let’s have a look at the November stats.

Austin Real Estate Market Update – Oct 2009 Stats

by Steve Crossland

October saw a huge 31% increase in the number of sales in Austin over the same month last year. Remember though, Oct 2008 took a 28% dip from the year prior, so while this October did see a good increase in sales volume, due in part to the $8,000 tax credit program, we’re comparing a dreadful month one year prior to a turbo-charged market this year, thus the big swing. Nonetheless, brisk sales for October was not an unwelcome result.

Let’s take a quick look at the monthly home sales prices in Austin for the past 20 months.

Austin-Real Estate Sales Last 20 Months

You can see that May 08 and May 09 were both the peak sales prices in their respective years and that sales prices drop in the off seasons. This year is no different but our sales volume has picked up more than usual.

Let’s see in the graph below how October 09 compares in all the metrics to October 2008.

Austin Real Estate Sale Stats by MLS Area – Sept 2009 YTD

by Steve Crossland

Austin’s real estate market is a “market of markets”, and thus the overall news reported about real estate activity in the Austin Metro area may or may not be reflective of conditions in the specific area in which you live, or the home you own, or the home you want to buy. Each quarter I break down the Austin Real Estate market year-to-date stats into MLS area-specific comparisons of the year before so we can take a look at the variations among different pockets of Austin.

If you follow these quarterly Austin MLS breakdowns, you know that there is always variation among different MLS areas and price ranges, for better or worse. This Year-to-Date report through Sept 2009 is a head scratcher for me though, mainly because the number of Austin MLS areas that normally outperform the overall market has dwindled substantially. Based on what Sylvia and I are experiencing in the field, I would have guessed the opposite to be true. And the market overall is holding up.

But here’s what I’m talking about …

Of the 44 Austin Metro MLS areas tracked below…
5 Austin MLS areas had an increase in average sold prices (3 months ago it was 11)
7 Austin MLS areas had an increase in median sold prices (3 months ago it was 11)
1 Austin MLS area had an increase in average sold price per square foot (3 months ago it was 7).
4 of the Austin MLS areas saw a decrease in average days on market (same as 3 months ago)
7 of the Austin MLS areas saw a decrease in median days on market (3 months ago it was 6).
1 (only 1) Austin MLS area saw an increase in the three main pricing metrics – avg and median sold, and price per square foot. Three areas were in this clug at mid-year.

So does this mean the Austin real estate market is getting worse? As usual, it depends. From a statistical standpoint, more areas are trending down than up. But if you ask Sylvia and I if we’re busy, yes we are. We had 4 closings in October and three on the board already for November, which is unusual for the slow season. On the other hand, if you ask an agent who specializes in luxury homes in Lakeway, they will probably say things are dismal. And I do in fact have a listing on 10 acres in Dripping Springs that isn’t getting any showings even though we think it’s under priced.

Add in the government interference/intervention in normal real estate market activity with the tax credit incentives, the nervous jitters of the stock market, artificially low interest rates, appraisal issues, and what we have is a number of variables pulling and tugging with and against one another. Bottom line, overall, at 3% down for the year on average sold price and about even on medial sold price, Austin’s market is doing about what we think it should, as a whole. It’s just interesting to see all the underlying cross currents.

That said, below is the breakdown summary, then you can study the chart yourself and see how your areas of interest are doing. As usual, questions and comments are welcome.

Austin Real Estate Market – 2009 MLS Area Breakdown

Austin Real Estate Market Update – December 2009

School District Boundary Changes Can Affect Home Values

Austin Real Estate Market Update – Nov 2009

Austin Real Estate Market Update – Oct 2009 Stats

Austin Real Estate Sale Stats by MLS Area – Sept 2009 YTD

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